TY - JOUR
T1 - Why uncertainty in community livelihood adaptation is important for adaptive delta management
T2 - A case study in polders of Southwest Bangladesh
AU - Kulsum, Umme
AU - Timmermans, Jos
AU - Haasnoot, Marjolijn
AU - Shah Alam Khan, M.
AU - Thissen, Wil
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2021 The Authors
PY - 2021/5
Y1 - 2021/5
N2 - To deal with large uncertainties about future climate and socio-economic developments, planners in deltas are adopting an integrative and adaptive planning approach referred to as Adaptive Delta Management (ADM). Bangladesh has used the ADM approach for the development of its adaptive plan; Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100 (BDP 2100). The success of policy strategies in an adaptive delta plan critically depends on a specific adaptation of livelihoods of local communities (Community Livelihood Adaptation; CLA), especially in an agriculture-oriented society like Bangladesh. For example, while triple rice cropping might be evaluated as a robust strategy in all futures considered, its success eventually depends on whether farmers’ will actually make that choice, which is deeply uncertain. In this paper, we use literature review, insights from interviews and field observations to examine how the uncertainty in CLA impacts (adaptive) delta management. We study two historical cases of livelihood adaptation of farmer communities confronted with salinization and waterlogging in the polders of southwest Bangladesh since the 1960s. We conclude that historically the uncertainty about CLA in polders has been ignored in the development of policy plans, leading to the failure of anticipated policy outcomes. We recommend planners in Bangladesh and other deltas worldwide to take account of CLA as uncertainty when developing long-term adaptive plans.
AB - To deal with large uncertainties about future climate and socio-economic developments, planners in deltas are adopting an integrative and adaptive planning approach referred to as Adaptive Delta Management (ADM). Bangladesh has used the ADM approach for the development of its adaptive plan; Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100 (BDP 2100). The success of policy strategies in an adaptive delta plan critically depends on a specific adaptation of livelihoods of local communities (Community Livelihood Adaptation; CLA), especially in an agriculture-oriented society like Bangladesh. For example, while triple rice cropping might be evaluated as a robust strategy in all futures considered, its success eventually depends on whether farmers’ will actually make that choice, which is deeply uncertain. In this paper, we use literature review, insights from interviews and field observations to examine how the uncertainty in CLA impacts (adaptive) delta management. We study two historical cases of livelihood adaptation of farmer communities confronted with salinization and waterlogging in the polders of southwest Bangladesh since the 1960s. We conclude that historically the uncertainty about CLA in polders has been ignored in the development of policy plans, leading to the failure of anticipated policy outcomes. We recommend planners in Bangladesh and other deltas worldwide to take account of CLA as uncertainty when developing long-term adaptive plans.
KW - Adaptive Delta Management
KW - Bangladesh
KW - Community Livelihood Adaptation
KW - Polders
KW - Uncertainty
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85101257909&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.envsci.2021.01.004
DO - 10.1016/j.envsci.2021.01.004
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85101257909
SN - 1462-9011
VL - 119
SP - 54
EP - 65
JO - Environmental Science and Policy
JF - Environmental Science and Policy
ER -