Weather indicators for insured hailstorm damage to motor vehicles and potential climate change impacts

Projections of the potential effects of climate change on damage caused by local extreme weather events are important for the design of appropriate policies for greenhouse gas emission reduction and insurers' adaptation responses to changing risks. This study estimates the relationships between daily insured damage from hailstorms to motor vehicles and several weather indicators, using statistical models with a high spatial resolution. We account for temporal dynamics and changes in exposure to hailstorms. The best-fitting model includes indicators of local daily maximum temperatures and regional spatially averaged precipitation. The projected increase in hailstorm damage of up to 33 per cent during the hail season as a result of anthropogenic climate change by the year 2050 is smaller than the increase found in previous studies.