Vulnerability of US and European electricity supply to climate change

Michelle T.H. Van Vliet; John R. Yearsley; Fulco Ludwig; Stefan Vögele; Dennis P. Lettenmaier; Pavel Kabat

doi:10.1038/nclimate1546

Vulnerability of US and European electricity supply to climate change

Michelle T.H. Van Vliet^*
, John R. Yearsley
, Fulco Ludwig
, Stefan Vögele
, Dennis P. Lettenmaier
, Pavel Kabat

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

Abstract

In the United States and Europe, at present 91% and 78% (ref.) of the total electricity is produced by thermoelectric (nuclear and fossil-fuelled) power plants, which directly depend on the availability and temperature of water resources for cooling. During recent warm, dry summers several thermoelectric power plants in Europe and the southeastern United States were forced to reduce production owing to cooling-water scarcity^2-4. Here we show that thermoelectric power in Europe and the United States is vulnerable to climate change owing to the combined impacts of lower summer river flows and higher river water temperatures. Using a physically based hydrological and water temperature modelling framework in combination with an electricity production model, we show a summer average decrease in capacity of power plants of 6.3-19% in Europe and 4.4-16% in the United States depending on cooling system type and climate scenario for 2031-2060. In addition, probabilities of extreme (>90%) reductions in thermoelectric power production will on average increase by a factor of three. Considering the increase in future electricity demand, there is a strong need for improved climate adaptation strategies in the thermoelectric power sector to assure futureenergy security.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	676-681
Number of pages	6
Journal	Nature Climate Change
Volume	2
Issue number	9
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1546
Publication status	Published - Sept 2012
Externally published	Yes

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
This study was financially supported by the European Commission through the FP6 WATCH project and through the FP7 ECLISE project. We thank R. Leemans for helpful comments on a previous version of this manuscript. The Global Runoff Data Centre, 56068 Koblenz, Germany, and United Nations Global Environment Monitoring System are kindly acknowledged for supplying daily observed river flow and water temperature data for river stations in the US and Europe.

Funding

This study was financially supported by the European Commission through the FP6 WATCH project and through the FP7 ECLISE project. We thank R. Leemans for helpful comments on a previous version of this manuscript. The Global Runoff Data Centre, 56068 Koblenz, Germany, and United Nations Global Environment Monitoring System are kindly acknowledged for supplying daily observed river flow and water temperature data for river stations in the US and Europe.

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 13 Climate Action

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10.1038/nclimate1546

Cite this

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title = "Vulnerability of US and European electricity supply to climate change",

abstract = "In the United States and Europe, at present 91\% and 78\% (ref.) of the total electricity is produced by thermoelectric (nuclear and fossil-fuelled) power plants, which directly depend on the availability and temperature of water resources for cooling. During recent warm, dry summers several thermoelectric power plants in Europe and the southeastern United States were forced to reduce production owing to cooling-water scarcity2-4. Here we show that thermoelectric power in Europe and the United States is vulnerable to climate change owing to the combined impacts of lower summer river flows and higher river water temperatures. Using a physically based hydrological and water temperature modelling framework in combination with an electricity production model, we show a summer average decrease in capacity of power plants of 6.3-19\% in Europe and 4.4-16\% in the United States depending on cooling system type and climate scenario for 2031-2060. In addition, probabilities of extreme (>90\%) reductions in thermoelectric power production will on average increase by a factor of three. Considering the increase in future electricity demand, there is a strong need for improved climate adaptation strategies in the thermoelectric power sector to assure futureenergy security.",

author = "\{Van Vliet\}, \{Michelle T.H.\} and Yearsley, \{John R.\} and Fulco Ludwig and Stefan V{\"o}gele and Lettenmaier, \{Dennis P.\} and Pavel Kabat",

note = "Funding Information: This study was financially supported by the European Commission through the FP6 WATCH project and through the FP7 ECLISE project. We thank R. Leemans for helpful comments on a previous version of this manuscript. The Global Runoff Data Centre, 56068 Koblenz, Germany, and United Nations Global Environment Monitoring System are kindly acknowledged for supplying daily observed river flow and water temperature data for river stations in the US and Europe.",

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AU - Ludwig, Fulco

AU - Vögele, Stefan

AU - Lettenmaier, Dennis P.

AU - Kabat, Pavel

N1 - Funding Information: This study was financially supported by the European Commission through the FP6 WATCH project and through the FP7 ECLISE project. We thank R. Leemans for helpful comments on a previous version of this manuscript. The Global Runoff Data Centre, 56068 Koblenz, Germany, and United Nations Global Environment Monitoring System are kindly acknowledged for supplying daily observed river flow and water temperature data for river stations in the US and Europe.

PY - 2012/9

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N2 - In the United States and Europe, at present 91% and 78% (ref.) of the total electricity is produced by thermoelectric (nuclear and fossil-fuelled) power plants, which directly depend on the availability and temperature of water resources for cooling. During recent warm, dry summers several thermoelectric power plants in Europe and the southeastern United States were forced to reduce production owing to cooling-water scarcity2-4. Here we show that thermoelectric power in Europe and the United States is vulnerable to climate change owing to the combined impacts of lower summer river flows and higher river water temperatures. Using a physically based hydrological and water temperature modelling framework in combination with an electricity production model, we show a summer average decrease in capacity of power plants of 6.3-19% in Europe and 4.4-16% in the United States depending on cooling system type and climate scenario for 2031-2060. In addition, probabilities of extreme (>90%) reductions in thermoelectric power production will on average increase by a factor of three. Considering the increase in future electricity demand, there is a strong need for improved climate adaptation strategies in the thermoelectric power sector to assure futureenergy security.

AB - In the United States and Europe, at present 91% and 78% (ref.) of the total electricity is produced by thermoelectric (nuclear and fossil-fuelled) power plants, which directly depend on the availability and temperature of water resources for cooling. During recent warm, dry summers several thermoelectric power plants in Europe and the southeastern United States were forced to reduce production owing to cooling-water scarcity2-4. Here we show that thermoelectric power in Europe and the United States is vulnerable to climate change owing to the combined impacts of lower summer river flows and higher river water temperatures. Using a physically based hydrological and water temperature modelling framework in combination with an electricity production model, we show a summer average decrease in capacity of power plants of 6.3-19% in Europe and 4.4-16% in the United States depending on cooling system type and climate scenario for 2031-2060. In addition, probabilities of extreme (>90%) reductions in thermoelectric power production will on average increase by a factor of three. Considering the increase in future electricity demand, there is a strong need for improved climate adaptation strategies in the thermoelectric power sector to assure futureenergy security.

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JO - Nature Climate Change

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ER -

Vulnerability of US and European electricity supply to climate change

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Funding

UN SDGs

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