Using functional indicators to detect state changes in terrestrial ecosystems

Zhongmin Hu, Vasilis Dakos, Max Rietkerk

Research output: Contribution to journalReview articlepeer-review

Abstract

Indicators to predict ecosystem state change are urgently needed to cope with the degradation of ecosystem services caused by global change. With the development of new technologies for measuring ecosystem function with fine spatiotemporal resolution over broad areas, we are in the era of 'big data'. However, it is unclear how large, emerging datasets can be used to anticipate ecosystem state change. We propose the construction of indicators based on functional variables (flows) and state variables (pools) to predict future ecosystem state changes. The indicators identified here may be useful signals for doing so. In addition, functional indicators have explicit ecological meanings that can identify the ecological mechanism that is causing state changes, and can thus be used to improve ecosystem models.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1036-1045
Number of pages10
JournalTrends in ecology & evolution
Volume37
Issue number12
Early online dateAug 2022
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Dec 2022

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
This research was jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant no. 31922053 ), National Key R&D Program of China (grant no. 2017YFA0604801 ), Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program (grant no. 2019QZKK0405 ), Key R&D Program of Hainan (grant no. ZDYF2022SHFZ042 ), and the start-up fund of Hainan University [no. KYQD(ZR)21096 ]. The authors appreciate Dr Andrea Stephens and three anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments on earlier versions of this manuscript.

Publisher Copyright:
© 2022 Elsevier Ltd

Keywords

  • ecosystem functions
  • ecosystem model
  • ecosystem state change
  • global change
  • tipping point

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