Unpacking the European Commission's fiscal policy response to crisis: mapping and explaining economic ideas in the European Semester 2011–2022

Rachel Graham; Martijn Schoonvelde; Marij Swinkels

doi:10.1080/13501763.2023.2274347

Unpacking the European Commission's fiscal policy response to crisis: mapping and explaining economic ideas in the European Semester 2011–2022

Rachel Graham, Martijn Schoonvelde^*, Marij Swinkels

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

Abstract

In this paper, we examine how and why the European Commission's ideas on fiscal policy have changed over the course of the European Semester. Empirically, we rely on a semi-supervised scaling approach to identify economic ideas as they appear in Semester documents from the aftermath of the financial crisis onwards (2011-2022). Our findings demonstrate a gradual shift in ideas from an ordoliberal to a Keynesian direction, especially during the overlapping Von der Leyen and Covid-19 crisis years. We identify substantial country-specific differences throughout 2011–2022, with some countries receiving exclusively Keynesian recommendations, and others distinctively ordoliberal ones. These patterns can be explained in part by economic conditions in those member states but not by the public's trust in the EU. These results underscore the reactive nature of the Commission's economic ideology; crises, as well as member states’ economic conditions, shape the direction of its fiscal policy recommendations.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	3591-3616
Number of pages	26
Journal	Journal of European Public Policy
Volume	31
Issue number	11
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1080/13501763.2023.2274347
Publication status	Published - Sept 2024

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2023 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.

Funding

The authors would like to thank participants in the Big Data, Text Analysis and Methodology Standing Group at the Political Science Association Ireland (PSAI) 2022 Annual Conference, the European Politics and Society Seminar at the University of Groningen, Reinout van der Veer, and two anonymous reviewers for their helpful feedback and comments on earlier versions of the article.

Funders
The authors would like to thank participants in the Big Data, Text Analysis and Methodology Standing Group at the Political Science Association Ireland (PSAI) 2022 Annual Conference, the European Politics and Society Seminar at the University of Groningen,

Keywords

Crisis
economic policy change
EU commission
ideas
quantitative text analysis

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10.1080/13501763.2023.2274347Licence: CC BY

Unpacking the European Commission s fiscal policy response to crisis mapping and explaining economic ideas in the European Semester 2011 2022Final published version, 3.42 MBLicence: CC BY

Cite this

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abstract = "In this paper, we examine how and why the European Commission's ideas on fiscal policy have changed over the course of the European Semester. Empirically, we rely on a semi-supervised scaling approach to identify economic ideas as they appear in Semester documents from the aftermath of the financial crisis onwards (2011-2022). Our findings demonstrate a gradual shift in ideas from an ordoliberal to a Keynesian direction, especially during the overlapping Von der Leyen and Covid-19 crisis years. We identify substantial country-specific differences throughout 2011–2022, with some countries receiving exclusively Keynesian recommendations, and others distinctively ordoliberal ones. These patterns can be explained in part by economic conditions in those member states but not by the public's trust in the EU. These results underscore the reactive nature of the Commission's economic ideology; crises, as well as member states{\textquoteright} economic conditions, shape the direction of its fiscal policy recommendations.",

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Unpacking the European Commission's fiscal policy response to crisis: mapping and explaining economic ideas in the European Semester 2011–2022

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Funding

Keywords

Access to Document

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