Uncertainty in East Antarctic Firn Thickness Constrained Using a Model Ensemble Approach

V. Verjans; A. A. Leeson; M. McMillan; C. M. Stevens; J. M. van Wessem; W. J. van de Berg; M. R. van den Broeke; C. Kittel; C. Amory; X. Fettweis; N. Hansen; F. Boberg; R. Mottram

doi:10.1029/2020GL092060

Uncertainty in East Antarctic Firn Thickness Constrained Using a Model Ensemble Approach

V. Verjans^*, A. A. Leeson, M. McMillan, C. M. Stevens, J. M. van Wessem, W. J. van de Berg, M. R. van den Broeke, C. Kittel, C. Amory, X. Fettweis, N. Hansen, F. Boberg, R. Mottram

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

Abstract

Mass balance assessments of the East Antarctic ice sheet (EAIS) are highly sensitive to changes in firn thickness, causing substantial disagreement in estimates of its contribution to sea-level. To better constrain the uncertainty in recent firn thickness changes, we develop an ensemble of 54 model scenarios of firn evolution between 1992 and 2017. Using statistical emulation of firn-densification models, we quantify the impact of firn compaction formulation, differing climatic forcing, and surface snow density on firn thickness evolution. At basin scales, the ensemble uncertainty in firn thickness change ranges between 0.2 and 1.0 cm yr⁻¹ (15%–300% relative uncertainty), with the choice of climate forcing having the largest influence on the spread. Our results show the regions of the ice sheet where unexplained discrepancies exist between observed elevation changes and an extensive set of modeled firn thickness changes estimates, marking an important step toward more accurately constraining ice sheet mass balance.

Original language	English
Article number	e2020GL092060
Pages (from-to)	1-11
Number of pages	11
Journal	Geophysical Research Letters
Volume	48
Issue number	7
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL092060
Publication status	Published - 16 Apr 2021

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
The authors thank Andrew Shepherd for constructive discussions about our results. AL acknowledges support from EPSRC, A Data Science for the Natural Environment (EP/R01860X/1). M. McMillan was supported by the UK Natural Environment Research Council Centre for Polar Observation and Modeling (grant number cpom300001). MvdB acknowledges support from the Netherlands Earth System Science Centre (NESSC). The authors thank editor Mathieu Morlighem, reviewer Eric Keenan and one anonymous reviewer for providing insightful comments and for their handling of the review process.

Funding Information:
The authors thank Andrew Shepherd for constructive discussions about our results. AL acknowledges support from EPSRC, (EP/R01860X/1). M. McMillan was supported by the UK Natural Environment Research Council Centre for Polar Observation and Modeling (grant number cpom300001). MvdB acknowledges support from the Netherlands Earth System Science Centre (NESSC). The authors thank editor Mathieu Morlighem, reviewer Eric Keenan and one anonymous reviewer for providing insightful comments and for their handling of the review process. A Data Science for the Natural Environment

Publisher Copyright:
© 2021. The Authors. Geophysical Research Letters published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Geophysical Union.

Funding

The authors thank Andrew Shepherd for constructive discussions about our results. AL acknowledges support from EPSRC, A Data Science for the Natural Environment (EP/R01860X/1). M. McMillan was supported by the UK Natural Environment Research Council Centre for Polar Observation and Modeling (grant number cpom300001). MvdB acknowledges support from the Netherlands Earth System Science Centre (NESSC). The authors thank editor Mathieu Morlighem, reviewer Eric Keenan and one anonymous reviewer for providing insightful comments and for their handling of the review process. The authors thank Andrew Shepherd for constructive discussions about our results. AL acknowledges support from EPSRC, (EP/R01860X/1). M. McMillan was supported by the UK Natural Environment Research Council Centre for Polar Observation and Modeling (grant number cpom300001). MvdB acknowledges support from the Netherlands Earth System Science Centre (NESSC). The authors thank editor Mathieu Morlighem, reviewer Eric Keenan and one anonymous reviewer for providing insightful comments and for their handling of the review process. A Data Science for the Natural Environment

Keywords

east Antarctic ice sheet
firn
model-ensemble

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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2020GL092060Final published version, 769 KBLicence: CC BY-NC

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Verjans, V., Leeson, A. A., McMillan, M., Stevens, C. M., van Wessem, J. M., van de Berg, W. J., van den Broeke, M. R., Kittel, C., Amory, C., Fettweis, X., Hansen, N., Boberg, F., & Mottram, R. (2021). Uncertainty in East Antarctic Firn Thickness Constrained Using a Model Ensemble Approach. Geophysical Research Letters, 48(7), 1-11. Article e2020GL092060. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL092060

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abstract = "Mass balance assessments of the East Antarctic ice sheet (EAIS) are highly sensitive to changes in firn thickness, causing substantial disagreement in estimates of its contribution to sea-level. To better constrain the uncertainty in recent firn thickness changes, we develop an ensemble of 54 model scenarios of firn evolution between 1992 and 2017. Using statistical emulation of firn-densification models, we quantify the impact of firn compaction formulation, differing climatic forcing, and surface snow density on firn thickness evolution. At basin scales, the ensemble uncertainty in firn thickness change ranges between 0.2 and 1.0 cm yr−1 (15%–300% relative uncertainty), with the choice of climate forcing having the largest influence on the spread. Our results show the regions of the ice sheet where unexplained discrepancies exist between observed elevation changes and an extensive set of modeled firn thickness changes estimates, marking an important step toward more accurately constraining ice sheet mass balance.",

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author = "V. Verjans and Leeson, {A. A.} and M. McMillan and Stevens, {C. M.} and {van Wessem}, {J. M.} and {van de Berg}, {W. J.} and {van den Broeke}, {M. R.} and C. Kittel and C. Amory and X. Fettweis and N. Hansen and F. Boberg and R. Mottram",

note = "Funding Information: The authors thank Andrew Shepherd for constructive discussions about our results. AL acknowledges support from EPSRC, A Data Science for the Natural Environment (EP/R01860X/1). M. McMillan was supported by the UK Natural Environment Research Council Centre for Polar Observation and Modeling (grant number cpom300001). MvdB acknowledges support from the Netherlands Earth System Science Centre (NESSC). The authors thank editor Mathieu Morlighem, reviewer Eric Keenan and one anonymous reviewer for providing insightful comments and for their handling of the review process. Funding Information: The authors thank Andrew Shepherd for constructive discussions about our results. AL acknowledges support from EPSRC, (EP/R01860X/1). M. McMillan was supported by the UK Natural Environment Research Council Centre for Polar Observation and Modeling (grant number cpom300001). MvdB acknowledges support from the Netherlands Earth System Science Centre (NESSC). The authors thank editor Mathieu Morlighem, reviewer Eric Keenan and one anonymous reviewer for providing insightful comments and for their handling of the review process. A Data Science for the Natural Environment Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2021. The Authors. Geophysical Research Letters published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Geophysical Union.",

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Verjans, V, Leeson, AA, McMillan, M, Stevens, CM, van Wessem, JM, van de Berg, WJ , van den Broeke, MR, Kittel, C, Amory, C, Fettweis, X, Hansen, N, Boberg, F & Mottram, R 2021, 'Uncertainty in East Antarctic Firn Thickness Constrained Using a Model Ensemble Approach', Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 48, no. 7, e2020GL092060, pp. 1-11. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL092060

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AU - Leeson, A. A.

AU - McMillan, M.

AU - Stevens, C. M.

AU - van Wessem, J. M.

AU - van de Berg, W. J.

AU - van den Broeke, M. R.

AU - Kittel, C.

AU - Amory, C.

AU - Fettweis, X.

AU - Hansen, N.

AU - Boberg, F.

AU - Mottram, R.

N1 - Funding Information: The authors thank Andrew Shepherd for constructive discussions about our results. AL acknowledges support from EPSRC, A Data Science for the Natural Environment (EP/R01860X/1). M. McMillan was supported by the UK Natural Environment Research Council Centre for Polar Observation and Modeling (grant number cpom300001). MvdB acknowledges support from the Netherlands Earth System Science Centre (NESSC). The authors thank editor Mathieu Morlighem, reviewer Eric Keenan and one anonymous reviewer for providing insightful comments and for their handling of the review process. Funding Information: The authors thank Andrew Shepherd for constructive discussions about our results. AL acknowledges support from EPSRC, (EP/R01860X/1). M. McMillan was supported by the UK Natural Environment Research Council Centre for Polar Observation and Modeling (grant number cpom300001). MvdB acknowledges support from the Netherlands Earth System Science Centre (NESSC). The authors thank editor Mathieu Morlighem, reviewer Eric Keenan and one anonymous reviewer for providing insightful comments and for their handling of the review process. A Data Science for the Natural Environment Publisher Copyright: © 2021. The Authors. Geophysical Research Letters published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Geophysical Union.

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N2 - Mass balance assessments of the East Antarctic ice sheet (EAIS) are highly sensitive to changes in firn thickness, causing substantial disagreement in estimates of its contribution to sea-level. To better constrain the uncertainty in recent firn thickness changes, we develop an ensemble of 54 model scenarios of firn evolution between 1992 and 2017. Using statistical emulation of firn-densification models, we quantify the impact of firn compaction formulation, differing climatic forcing, and surface snow density on firn thickness evolution. At basin scales, the ensemble uncertainty in firn thickness change ranges between 0.2 and 1.0 cm yr−1 (15%–300% relative uncertainty), with the choice of climate forcing having the largest influence on the spread. Our results show the regions of the ice sheet where unexplained discrepancies exist between observed elevation changes and an extensive set of modeled firn thickness changes estimates, marking an important step toward more accurately constraining ice sheet mass balance.

AB - Mass balance assessments of the East Antarctic ice sheet (EAIS) are highly sensitive to changes in firn thickness, causing substantial disagreement in estimates of its contribution to sea-level. To better constrain the uncertainty in recent firn thickness changes, we develop an ensemble of 54 model scenarios of firn evolution between 1992 and 2017. Using statistical emulation of firn-densification models, we quantify the impact of firn compaction formulation, differing climatic forcing, and surface snow density on firn thickness evolution. At basin scales, the ensemble uncertainty in firn thickness change ranges between 0.2 and 1.0 cm yr−1 (15%–300% relative uncertainty), with the choice of climate forcing having the largest influence on the spread. Our results show the regions of the ice sheet where unexplained discrepancies exist between observed elevation changes and an extensive set of modeled firn thickness changes estimates, marking an important step toward more accurately constraining ice sheet mass balance.

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Uncertainty in East Antarctic Firn Thickness Constrained Using a Model Ensemble Approach

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Funding

Keywords

UN SDGs

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