Abstract
Many processes affect sea level near the coast. In this paper, we discuss the major uncertainties in coastal sea-level projections from a process-based perspective, at different spatial and temporal scales, and provide an outlook on how these uncertainties may be reduced. Uncertainty in centennial global sea-level rise is dominated by the ice sheet contributions. Geographical variations in projected sea-level change arise mainly from dynamical patterns in the ocean response and other geophysical processes. Finally, the uncertainties in the short-duration extreme sea-level events are controlled by near coastal processes, storms and tides.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 1655-1671 |
| Number of pages | 17 |
| Journal | Surveys in Geophysics |
| Volume | 40 |
| Issue number | 6 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - 1 Nov 2019 |
Funding
Benoit Meyssignac is thanked for providing the data compilation of the historical sea-level reconstruction used in Fig. 2 . ISSI is acknowledged for organizing a Workshop on coastal sea level in spring 2018 where the idea of this paper shaped. REMR acknowledges funding from the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research through VID Grant No. 864.12.012. KR is funded by the Austrian Science Fund (FP302560). RvdW acknowledges funding from NWO/NPP. XZ acknowledges funding from the Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research Centre (CSHOR), jointly funded by QNLM and CSIRO. MDP was supported by the Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme funded by BEIS and Defra. SJ was supported by the Natural Environmental Research Council under Grant Agreement No. NE/P01517/1 and by the EPSRC NEWTON Fund Sustainable Deltas Programme, Grant Number EP/R024537/1. CL’s contribution was supported by NASA Contract NNH16CT01C. 1 RCP is Representative Concentration Pathway, i.e. the greenhouse gas concentration trajectory adopted by the IPCC for its fifth Assessment Report (AR5).
Keywords
- Coastal sea level
- Uncertainties