Tropical forests in the Americas are changing too slowly to track climate change

Jesús Aguirre-Gutiérrez; Sandra Díaz; Sami W. Rifai; Jose Javier Corral-Rivas; Maria Guadalupe Nava-Miranda; Roy González-M; Ana Belén Hurtado-M; Norma Salinas Revilla; Emilio Vilanova; Everton Almeida; Edmar Almeida de Oliveira; Esteban Alvarez-Davila; Luciana F. Alves; Ana Cristina Segalin de Andrade; Antonio Carlos Lola da Costa; Simone Aparecida Vieira; Luiz Aragão; Eric Arets; Gerardo A. Aymard C; Fabrício Baccaro; Yvonne Vanessa Bakker; Timothy R. Baker; Olaf Bánki; Christopher Baraloto; Plínio Barbosa de Camargo; Erika Berenguer; Lilian Blanc; Damien Bonal; Frans Bongers; Kauane Maiara Bordin; Roel Brienen; Foster Brown; Nayane Cristina C.S. Prestes; Carolina V. Castilho; Sabina Cerruto Ribeiro; Fernanda Coelho de Souza; James A. Comiskey; Fernando Cornejo Valverde; Sandra Cristina Müller; Richarlly da Costa Silva; Julio Daniel do Vale; Vitor de Andrade Kamimura; Ricardo de Oliveira Perdiz; Jhon Del Aguila Pasquel; Géraldine Derroire; Anthony Di Fiore; Mathias Disney; William Farfan-Rios; Sophie Fauset; Ted R. Feldpausch; Rafael Flora Ramos; Gerardo Flores Llampazo; Valéria Forni Martins; Claire Fortunel; Karina Garcia Cabrera; Jorcely Gonçalves Barroso; Bruno Hérault; Rafael Herrera; Eurídice N. Honorio Coronado; Isau Huamantupa-Chuquimaco; John J. Pipoly; Katia Janaina Zanini; Eliana Jiménez; Carlos A. Joly; Michelle Kalamandeen; Joice Klipel; Aurora Levesley; Wilmar Lopez Oviedo; William E. Magnusson; Rubens Manoel Dos Santos; Beatriz Schwantes Marimon; Ben Hur Marimon-Junior; Simone Matias de Almeida Reis; Omar Aurelio Melo Cruz; Abel Monteagudo Mendoza; Paulo Morandi; Robert Muscarella; Henrique Nascimento; David A. Neill; Imma Oliveras Menor; Walter A. Palacios; Sonia Palacios-Ramos; Nadir Carolina Pallqui Camacho; Guido Pardo; R. Toby Pennington; Luciana de Oliveira Pereira; Georgia Pickavance; Rayana Caroline Picolotto; Nigel C.A. Pitman; Adriana Prieto; Carlos Quesada; Hirma Ramírez-Angulo; Maxime Réjou-Méchain; Zorayda Restrepo Correa; José Manuel Reyna Huaymacari; Carlos Reynel Rodriguez; Gonzalo Rivas-Torres; Anand Roopsind; Agustín Rudas; Beatriz Salgado Negret; Masha T. van der Sande; Flávia Delgado Santana; Flavio Antonio Maës Santos; Rodrigo Scarton Bergamin; Miles R. Silman; Camila Silva; Javier Silva Espejo; Marcos Silveira; Fernanda Cristina Souza; Martin J.P. Sullivan; Varun Swamy; Joey Talbot; John J. Terborgh; Peter J. van der Meer; Geertje van der Heijden; Bert van Ulft; Rodolfo Vasquez Martinez; Laura Vedovato; Jason Vleminckx; Vincent Antoine Vos; Verginia Wortel; Pieter A. Zuidema; Joeri A. Zwerts; Susan G.W. Laurance; William F. Laurance; Jerôme Chave; James W. Dalling; Jos Barlow; Lourens Poorter; Brian J. Enquist; Hans Ter Steege; Oliver L. Phillips; David Galbraith; Yadvinder Malhi

doi:10.1126/science.adl5414

Tropical forests in the Americas are changing too slowly to track climate change

Jesús Aguirre-Gutiérrez^*, Sandra Díaz, Sami W. Rifai, Jose Javier Corral-Rivas, Maria Guadalupe Nava-Miranda, Roy González-M, Ana Belén Hurtado-M, Norma Salinas Revilla, Emilio Vilanova, Everton Almeida, Edmar Almeida de Oliveira, Esteban Alvarez-Davila, Luciana F. Alves, Ana Cristina Segalin de Andrade, Antonio Carlos Lola da Costa, Simone Aparecida Vieira, Luiz Aragão, Eric Arets, Gerardo A. Aymard C, Fabrício BaccaroYvonne Vanessa Bakker, Timothy R. Baker, Olaf Bánki, Christopher Baraloto, Plínio Barbosa de Camargo, Erika Berenguer, Lilian Blanc, Damien Bonal, Frans Bongers, Kauane Maiara Bordin, Roel Brienen, Foster Brown, Nayane Cristina C.S. Prestes, Carolina V. Castilho, Sabina Cerruto Ribeiro, Fernanda Coelho de Souza, James A. Comiskey, Fernando Cornejo Valverde, Sandra Cristina Müller, Richarlly da Costa Silva, Julio Daniel do Vale, Vitor de Andrade Kamimura, Ricardo de Oliveira Perdiz, Jhon Del Aguila Pasquel, Géraldine Derroire, Anthony Di Fiore, Mathias Disney, William Farfan-Rios, Sophie Fauset, Ted R. Feldpausch, Rafael Flora Ramos, Gerardo Flores Llampazo, Valéria Forni Martins, Claire Fortunel, Karina Garcia Cabrera, Jorcely Gonçalves Barroso, Bruno Hérault, Rafael Herrera, Eurídice N. Honorio Coronado, Isau Huamantupa-Chuquimaco, John J. Pipoly, Katia Janaina Zanini, Eliana Jiménez, Carlos A. Joly, Michelle Kalamandeen, Joice Klipel, Aurora Levesley, Wilmar Lopez Oviedo, William E. Magnusson, Rubens Manoel Dos Santos, Beatriz Schwantes Marimon, Ben Hur Marimon-Junior, Simone Matias de Almeida Reis, Omar Aurelio Melo Cruz, Abel Monteagudo Mendoza, Paulo Morandi, Robert Muscarella, Henrique Nascimento, David A. Neill, Imma Oliveras Menor, Walter A. Palacios, Sonia Palacios-Ramos, Nadir Carolina Pallqui Camacho, Guido Pardo, R. Toby Pennington, Luciana de Oliveira Pereira, Georgia Pickavance, Rayana Caroline Picolotto, Nigel C.A. Pitman, Adriana Prieto, Carlos Quesada, Hirma Ramírez-Angulo, Maxime Réjou-Méchain, Zorayda Restrepo Correa, José Manuel Reyna Huaymacari, Carlos Reynel Rodriguez, Gonzalo Rivas-Torres, Anand Roopsind, Agustín Rudas, Beatriz Salgado Negret, Masha T. van der Sande, Flávia Delgado Santana, Flavio Antonio Maës Santos, Rodrigo Scarton Bergamin, Miles R. Silman, Camila Silva, Javier Silva Espejo, Marcos Silveira, Fernanda Cristina Souza, Martin J.P. Sullivan, Varun Swamy, Joey Talbot, John J. Terborgh, Peter J. van der Meer, Geertje van der Heijden, Bert van Ulft, Rodolfo Vasquez Martinez, Laura Vedovato, Jason Vleminckx, Vincent Antoine Vos, Verginia Wortel, Pieter A. Zuidema, Joeri A. Zwerts, Susan G.W. Laurance, William F. Laurance, Jerôme Chave, James W. Dalling, Jos Barlow, Lourens Poorter, Brian J. Enquist, Hans Ter Steege, Oliver L. Phillips, David Galbraith, Yadvinder Malhi

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

Abstract

Understanding the capacity of forests to adapt to climate change is of pivotal importance for conservation science, yet this is still widely unknown. This knowledge gap is particularly acute in high-biodiversity tropical forests. Here, we examined how tropical forests of the Americas have shifted community trait composition in recent decades as a response to changes in climate. Based on historical trait-climate relationships, we found that, overall, the studied functional traits show shifts of less than 8% of what would be expected given the observed changes in climate. However, the recruit assemblage shows shifts of 21% relative to climate change expectation. The most diverse forests on Earth are changing in functional trait composition but at a rate that is fundamentally insufficient to track climate change.

Original language	English
Article number	eadl5414
Number of pages	11
Journal	Science (New York, N.Y.)
Volume	387
Issue number	6738
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adl5414
Publication status	Published - 7 Mar 2025

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2025 American Association for the Advancement of Science. All rights reserved.

Funding

J.A.-G. was funded by the Natural Environment Research Council under an independent research fellowship (NERC grant NE/T011084/1), NERC Pushing the Frontiers (NE/Z504191/1), and the Oxford University John Fell Fund (grant 10667). Global traits collection and traits analyses under GEM were funded by an ERC Advanced Investigator Award (GEM-TRAIT grant 321131) to Y.M. under the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme (grant FP7/2007-2013) with additional support from NERC grant NE/D014174/1 and NE/J022616/1 for traits work in Peru and NERC grant ECOFOR (NE/K016385/1) for traits work in Santarem. Plot inventories in Peru were supported by funding from the US National Science Foundation Long-Term Research in Environmental Biology program (LTREB grant DEB 1754647) and the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation Andes-Amazon Program. Plot inventories in Nova Xavantina (Brazil) were supported by the National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq) PQ1 grants 311027/2019-9 and 303492/2022-8 to B.H.M. and B.S.M., the Long-Term Ecological Research Program (PELD), processes 441244/2016-5 and 441572/2020-0, and the Foundation of Research Support of Mato Grosso (FAPEMAT), Project ReFlor, processes 589267/2016 and PELD/FAPEMAT 0346321/2021. S.D. acknowledges support from CONICET, Universidad Nacional de Cordoba and Red Federal de Alto Impacto CONATURAR (grant 2023-102072649-APN-MCT) Argentina and the Oxford Martin School. C.A.J. acknowledges support from the Brazilian National Research Council/CNPq (PELD process 403710/2012-0), NERC, and the State of Sao Paulo Research Foundation/FAPESP as part of the projects Functional Gradient, PELD/BIOTA and ECOFOR (processes 2003/12595-7, 2012/51509-8 and 2012/51872-5, within the BIOTA/FAPESP Program-The Biodiversity Virtual Institute; COTEC/IF 002.766/2013 and 010.631/2013 permits. B.S.M. was supported by the CNPq/PELD projects 441244/2016-5 and 441572/2020-0 and CAPES project 136277/2017-0. M.S. acknowledges funding for Andes Biodiversity and Ecosystem Research Group (ABERG) plot network from the US National Science Foundation (NSF) Long-Term Research in Environmental Biology (LTREB grant 1754647), the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation's Andes to Amazon Initiative, and RAINFOR. E.B, J.B., and Y.M. acknowledge support from NERC under projects NE/K016431/1 and NE/S01084X/1. Y.M. is supported by the Frank Jackson Foundation and the Leverhulme Trust. The MONAFOR network in Mexico has been funded by several projects highlighting those by the National Forestry Commission (CONAFOR) and the Council of Science and Technology of the State of Durango (COCYTED); F.C.S. acknowledges the Coordination for the Improvement of Higher Education Personnel -Brazil (CAPES) (Finance Code 001), and the Brazilian National Research Council/CNPq (PDJ Process No. 152806/2024-5). B.J.E. was supported by NSF awards (grant nos 2225078 and 2225076).

Funders	Funder number
Natural Environment Research Council under an independent research fellowship (NERC)	NE/T011084/1
NERC Pushing the Frontiers	NE/Z504191/1
Oxford University John Fell Fund	10667
ERC	321131
European Union

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

Access to Document

10.1126/science.adl5414

Cite this

Aguirre-Gutiérrez, J., Díaz, S., Rifai, S. W., Corral-Rivas, J. J., Nava-Miranda, M. G., González-M, R., Hurtado-M, A. B., Revilla, N. S., Vilanova, E., Almeida, E., de Oliveira, E. A., Alvarez-Davila, E., Alves, L. F., de Andrade, A. C. S., Lola da Costa, A. C., Vieira, S. A., Aragão, L., Arets, E., Aymard C, G. A., ... Malhi, Y. (2025). Tropical forests in the Americas are changing too slowly to track climate change. Science (New York, N.Y.), 387(6738), Article eadl5414. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adl5414

@article{04a191d9630a49a886500584c0b123dc,

title = "Tropical forests in the Americas are changing too slowly to track climate change",

abstract = "Understanding the capacity of forests to adapt to climate change is of pivotal importance for conservation science, yet this is still widely unknown. This knowledge gap is particularly acute in high-biodiversity tropical forests. Here, we examined how tropical forests of the Americas have shifted community trait composition in recent decades as a response to changes in climate. Based on historical trait-climate relationships, we found that, overall, the studied functional traits show shifts of less than 8% of what would be expected given the observed changes in climate. However, the recruit assemblage shows shifts of 21% relative to climate change expectation. The most diverse forests on Earth are changing in functional trait composition but at a rate that is fundamentally insufficient to track climate change.",

author = "Jes{\'u}s Aguirre-Guti{\'e}rrez and Sandra D{\'i}az and Rifai, {Sami W.} and Corral-Rivas, {Jose Javier} and Nava-Miranda, {Maria Guadalupe} and Roy Gonz{\'a}lez-M and Hurtado-M, {Ana Bel{\'e}n} and Revilla, {Norma Salinas} and Emilio Vilanova and Everton Almeida and {de Oliveira}, {Edmar Almeida} and Esteban Alvarez-Davila and Alves, {Luciana F.} and {de Andrade}, {Ana Cristina Segalin} and {Lola da Costa}, {Antonio Carlos} and Vieira, {Simone Aparecida} and Luiz Arag{\~a}o and Eric Arets and {Aymard C}, {Gerardo A.} and Fabr{\'i}cio Baccaro and Bakker, {Yvonne Vanessa} and Baker, {Timothy R.} and Olaf B{\'a}nki and Christopher Baraloto and {de Camargo}, {Pl{\'i}nio Barbosa} and Erika Berenguer and Lilian Blanc and Damien Bonal and Frans Bongers and Bordin, {Kauane Maiara} and Roel Brienen and Foster Brown and Prestes, {Nayane Cristina C.S.} and Castilho, {Carolina V.} and Ribeiro, {Sabina Cerruto} and {de Souza}, {Fernanda Coelho} and Comiskey, {James A.} and Valverde, {Fernando Cornejo} and M{\"u}ller, {Sandra Cristina} and {da Costa Silva}, Richarlly and {do Vale}, {Julio Daniel} and {de Andrade Kamimura}, Vitor and {de Oliveira Perdiz}, Ricardo and {Del Aguila Pasquel}, Jhon and G{\'e}raldine Derroire and {Di Fiore}, Anthony and Mathias Disney and William Farfan-Rios and Sophie Fauset and Feldpausch, {Ted R.} and Ramos, {Rafael Flora} and Llampazo, {Gerardo Flores} and Martins, {Val{\'e}ria Forni} and Claire Fortunel and Cabrera, {Karina Garcia} and Barroso, {Jorcely Gon{\c c}alves} and Bruno H{\'e}rault and Rafael Herrera and {Honorio Coronado}, {Eur{\'i}dice N.} and Isau Huamantupa-Chuquimaco and Pipoly, {John J.} and Zanini, {Katia Janaina} and Eliana Jim{\'e}nez and Joly, {Carlos A.} and Michelle Kalamandeen and Joice Klipel and Aurora Levesley and Oviedo, {Wilmar Lopez} and Magnusson, {William E.} and {Dos Santos}, {Rubens Manoel} and Marimon, {Beatriz Schwantes} and Marimon-Junior, {Ben Hur} and {de Almeida Reis}, {Simone Matias} and {Melo Cruz}, {Omar Aurelio} and Mendoza, {Abel Monteagudo} and Paulo Morandi and Robert Muscarella and Henrique Nascimento and Neill, {David A.} and Menor, {Imma Oliveras} and Palacios, {Walter A.} and Sonia Palacios-Ramos and {Pallqui Camacho}, {Nadir Carolina} and Guido Pardo and Pennington, {R. Toby} and {de Oliveira Pereira}, Luciana and Georgia Pickavance and Picolotto, {Rayana Caroline} and Pitman, {Nigel C.A.} and Adriana Prieto and Carlos Quesada and Hirma Ram{\'i}rez-Angulo and Maxime R{\'e}jou-M{\'e}chain and Correa, {Zorayda Restrepo} and {Reyna Huaymacari}, {Jos{\'e} Manuel} and Rodriguez, {Carlos Reynel} and Gonzalo Rivas-Torres and Anand Roopsind and Agust{\'i}n Rudas and {Salgado Negret}, Beatriz and {van der Sande}, {Masha T.} and Santana, {Fl{\'a}via Delgado} and {Ma{\"e}s Santos}, {Flavio Antonio} and Bergamin, {Rodrigo Scarton} and Silman, {Miles R.} and Camila Silva and Espejo, {Javier Silva} and Marcos Silveira and Souza, {Fernanda Cristina} and Sullivan, {Martin J.P.} and Varun Swamy and Joey Talbot and Terborgh, {John J.} and {van der Meer}, {Peter J.} and {van der Heijden}, Geertje and {van Ulft}, Bert and Martinez, {Rodolfo Vasquez} and Laura Vedovato and Jason Vleminckx and Vos, {Vincent Antoine} and Verginia Wortel and Zuidema, {Pieter A.} and Zwerts, {Joeri A.} and Laurance, {Susan G.W.} and Laurance, {William F.} and Jer{\^o}me Chave and Dalling, {James W.} and Jos Barlow and Lourens Poorter and Enquist, {Brian J.} and {Ter Steege}, Hans and Phillips, {Oliver L.} and David Galbraith and Yadvinder Malhi",

year = "2025",

month = mar,

day = "7",

doi = "10.1126/science.adl5414",

language = "English",

volume = "387",

journal = "Science (New York, N.Y.)",

issn = "0036-8075",

publisher = "American Association for the Advancement of Science",

number = "6738",

}

Aguirre-Gutiérrez, J, Díaz, S, Rifai, SW, Corral-Rivas, JJ, Nava-Miranda, MG, González-M, R, Hurtado-M, AB, Revilla, NS, Vilanova, E, Almeida, E, de Oliveira, EA, Alvarez-Davila, E, Alves, LF, de Andrade, ACS, Lola da Costa, AC, Vieira, SA, Aragão, L, Arets, E, Aymard C, GA, Baccaro, F, Bakker, YV, Baker, TR, Bánki, O, Baraloto, C, de Camargo, PB, Berenguer, E, Blanc, L, Bonal, D, Bongers, F, Bordin, KM, Brienen, R, Brown, F, Prestes, NCCS, Castilho, CV, Ribeiro, SC, de Souza, FC, Comiskey, JA, Valverde, FC, Müller, SC, da Costa Silva, R, do Vale, JD, de Andrade Kamimura, V, de Oliveira Perdiz, R, Del Aguila Pasquel, J, Derroire, G, Di Fiore, A, Disney, M, Farfan-Rios, W, Fauset, S, Feldpausch, TR, Ramos, RF, Llampazo, GF, Martins, VF, Fortunel, C, Cabrera, KG, Barroso, JG, Hérault, B, Herrera, R, Honorio Coronado, EN, Huamantupa-Chuquimaco, I, Pipoly, JJ, Zanini, KJ, Jiménez, E, Joly, CA, Kalamandeen, M, Klipel, J, Levesley, A, Oviedo, WL, Magnusson, WE, Dos Santos, RM, Marimon, BS, Marimon-Junior, BH, de Almeida Reis, SM, Melo Cruz, OA, Mendoza, AM, Morandi, P, Muscarella, R, Nascimento, H, Neill, DA, Menor, IO, Palacios, WA, Palacios-Ramos, S, Pallqui Camacho, NC, Pardo, G, Pennington, RT, de Oliveira Pereira, L, Pickavance, G, Picolotto, RC, Pitman, NCA, Prieto, A, Quesada, C, Ramírez-Angulo, H, Réjou-Méchain, M, Correa, ZR, Reyna Huaymacari, JM, Rodriguez, CR, Rivas-Torres, G, Roopsind, A, Rudas, A, Salgado Negret, B, van der Sande, MT, Santana, FD, Maës Santos, FA, Bergamin, RS, Silman, MR, Silva, C, Espejo, JS, Silveira, M, Souza, FC, Sullivan, MJP, Swamy, V, Talbot, J, Terborgh, JJ, van der Meer, PJ, van der Heijden, G, van Ulft, B, Martinez, RV, Vedovato, L, Vleminckx, J, Vos, VA, Wortel, V, Zuidema, PA, Zwerts, JA, Laurance, SGW, Laurance, WF, Chave, J, Dalling, JW, Barlow, J, Poorter, L, Enquist, BJ, Ter Steege, H, Phillips, OL, Galbraith, D & Malhi, Y 2025, 'Tropical forests in the Americas are changing too slowly to track climate change', Science (New York, N.Y.), vol. 387, no. 6738, eadl5414. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adl5414

TY - JOUR

T1 - Tropical forests in the Americas are changing too slowly to track climate change

AU - Aguirre-Gutiérrez, Jesús

AU - Díaz, Sandra

AU - Rifai, Sami W.

AU - Corral-Rivas, Jose Javier

AU - Nava-Miranda, Maria Guadalupe

AU - González-M, Roy

AU - Hurtado-M, Ana Belén

AU - Revilla, Norma Salinas

AU - Vilanova, Emilio

AU - Almeida, Everton

AU - de Oliveira, Edmar Almeida

AU - Alvarez-Davila, Esteban

AU - Alves, Luciana F.

AU - de Andrade, Ana Cristina Segalin

AU - Lola da Costa, Antonio Carlos

AU - Vieira, Simone Aparecida

AU - Aragão, Luiz

AU - Arets, Eric

AU - Aymard C, Gerardo A.

AU - Baccaro, Fabrício

AU - Bakker, Yvonne Vanessa

AU - Baker, Timothy R.

AU - Bánki, Olaf

AU - Baraloto, Christopher

AU - de Camargo, Plínio Barbosa

AU - Berenguer, Erika

AU - Blanc, Lilian

AU - Bonal, Damien

AU - Bongers, Frans

AU - Bordin, Kauane Maiara

AU - Brienen, Roel

AU - Brown, Foster

AU - Prestes, Nayane Cristina C.S.

AU - Castilho, Carolina V.

AU - Ribeiro, Sabina Cerruto

AU - de Souza, Fernanda Coelho

AU - Comiskey, James A.

AU - Valverde, Fernando Cornejo

AU - Müller, Sandra Cristina

AU - da Costa Silva, Richarlly

AU - do Vale, Julio Daniel

AU - de Andrade Kamimura, Vitor

AU - de Oliveira Perdiz, Ricardo

AU - Del Aguila Pasquel, Jhon

AU - Derroire, Géraldine

AU - Di Fiore, Anthony

AU - Disney, Mathias

AU - Farfan-Rios, William

AU - Fauset, Sophie

AU - Feldpausch, Ted R.

AU - Ramos, Rafael Flora

AU - Llampazo, Gerardo Flores

AU - Martins, Valéria Forni

AU - Fortunel, Claire

AU - Cabrera, Karina Garcia

AU - Barroso, Jorcely Gonçalves

AU - Hérault, Bruno

AU - Herrera, Rafael

AU - Honorio Coronado, Eurídice N.

AU - Huamantupa-Chuquimaco, Isau

AU - Pipoly, John J.

AU - Zanini, Katia Janaina

AU - Jiménez, Eliana

AU - Joly, Carlos A.

AU - Kalamandeen, Michelle

AU - Klipel, Joice

AU - Levesley, Aurora

AU - Oviedo, Wilmar Lopez

AU - Magnusson, William E.

AU - Dos Santos, Rubens Manoel

AU - Marimon, Beatriz Schwantes

AU - Marimon-Junior, Ben Hur

AU - de Almeida Reis, Simone Matias

AU - Melo Cruz, Omar Aurelio

AU - Mendoza, Abel Monteagudo

AU - Morandi, Paulo

AU - Muscarella, Robert

AU - Nascimento, Henrique

AU - Neill, David A.

AU - Menor, Imma Oliveras

AU - Palacios, Walter A.

AU - Palacios-Ramos, Sonia

AU - Pallqui Camacho, Nadir Carolina

AU - Pardo, Guido

AU - Pennington, R. Toby

AU - de Oliveira Pereira, Luciana

AU - Pickavance, Georgia

AU - Picolotto, Rayana Caroline

AU - Pitman, Nigel C.A.

AU - Prieto, Adriana

AU - Quesada, Carlos

AU - Ramírez-Angulo, Hirma

AU - Réjou-Méchain, Maxime

AU - Correa, Zorayda Restrepo

AU - Reyna Huaymacari, José Manuel

AU - Rodriguez, Carlos Reynel

AU - Rivas-Torres, Gonzalo

AU - Roopsind, Anand

AU - Rudas, Agustín

AU - Salgado Negret, Beatriz

AU - van der Sande, Masha T.

AU - Santana, Flávia Delgado

AU - Maës Santos, Flavio Antonio

AU - Bergamin, Rodrigo Scarton

AU - Silman, Miles R.

AU - Silva, Camila

AU - Espejo, Javier Silva

AU - Silveira, Marcos

AU - Souza, Fernanda Cristina

AU - Sullivan, Martin J.P.

AU - Swamy, Varun

AU - Talbot, Joey

AU - Terborgh, John J.

AU - van der Meer, Peter J.

AU - van der Heijden, Geertje

AU - van Ulft, Bert

AU - Martinez, Rodolfo Vasquez

AU - Vedovato, Laura

AU - Vleminckx, Jason

AU - Vos, Vincent Antoine

AU - Wortel, Verginia

AU - Zuidema, Pieter A.

AU - Zwerts, Joeri A.

AU - Laurance, Susan G.W.

AU - Laurance, William F.

AU - Chave, Jerôme

AU - Dalling, James W.

AU - Barlow, Jos

AU - Poorter, Lourens

AU - Enquist, Brian J.

AU - Ter Steege, Hans

AU - Phillips, Oliver L.

AU - Galbraith, David

AU - Malhi, Yadvinder

PY - 2025/3/7

Y1 - 2025/3/7

N2 - Understanding the capacity of forests to adapt to climate change is of pivotal importance for conservation science, yet this is still widely unknown. This knowledge gap is particularly acute in high-biodiversity tropical forests. Here, we examined how tropical forests of the Americas have shifted community trait composition in recent decades as a response to changes in climate. Based on historical trait-climate relationships, we found that, overall, the studied functional traits show shifts of less than 8% of what would be expected given the observed changes in climate. However, the recruit assemblage shows shifts of 21% relative to climate change expectation. The most diverse forests on Earth are changing in functional trait composition but at a rate that is fundamentally insufficient to track climate change.

AB - Understanding the capacity of forests to adapt to climate change is of pivotal importance for conservation science, yet this is still widely unknown. This knowledge gap is particularly acute in high-biodiversity tropical forests. Here, we examined how tropical forests of the Americas have shifted community trait composition in recent decades as a response to changes in climate. Based on historical trait-climate relationships, we found that, overall, the studied functional traits show shifts of less than 8% of what would be expected given the observed changes in climate. However, the recruit assemblage shows shifts of 21% relative to climate change expectation. The most diverse forests on Earth are changing in functional trait composition but at a rate that is fundamentally insufficient to track climate change.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=86000674518&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1126/science.adl5414

DO - 10.1126/science.adl5414

M3 - Article

C2 - 40048518

AN - SCOPUS:86000674518

SN - 0036-8075

VL - 387

JO - Science (New York, N.Y.)

JF - Science (New York, N.Y.)

IS - 6738

M1 - eadl5414

ER -

Tropical forests in the Americas are changing too slowly to track climate change

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