Trends and Drivers of Terrestrial Sources and Sinks of Carbon Dioxide: An Overview of the TRENDY Project

Stephen Sitch; Michael O’Sullivan; Eddy Robertson; Pierre Friedlingstein; Clément Albergel; Peter Anthoni; Almut Arneth; Vivek K. Arora; Ana Bastos; Vladislav Bastrikov; Nicolas Bellouin; Josep G. Canadell; Louise Chini; Philippe Ciais; Stefanie Falk; Ian Harris; George Hurtt; Akihiko Ito; Atul K. Jain; Matthew W. Jones; Fortunat Joos; Etsushi Kato; Daniel Kennedy; Kees Klein Goldewijk; Erik Kluzek; Jürgen Knauer; Peter J. Lawrence; Danica Lombardozzi; Joe R. Melton; Julia E.M.S. Nabel; Naiqing Pan; Philippe Peylin; Julia Pongratz; Benjamin Poulter; Thais M. Rosan; Qing Sun; Hanqin Tian; Anthony P. Walker; Ulrich Weber; Wenping Yuan; Xu Yue; Sönke Zaehle

doi:10.1029/2024GB008102

Trends and Drivers of Terrestrial Sources and Sinks of Carbon Dioxide: An Overview of the TRENDY Project

Stephen Sitch^*, Michael O’Sullivan, Eddy Robertson, Pierre Friedlingstein, Clément Albergel, Peter Anthoni, Almut Arneth, Vivek K. Arora, Ana Bastos, Vladislav Bastrikov, Nicolas Bellouin, Josep G. Canadell, Louise Chini, Philippe Ciais, Stefanie Falk, Ian Harris, George Hurtt, Akihiko Ito, Atul K. Jain, Matthew W. JonesFortunat Joos, Etsushi Kato, Daniel Kennedy, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Erik Kluzek, Jürgen Knauer, Peter J. Lawrence, Danica Lombardozzi, Joe R. Melton, Julia E.M.S. Nabel, Naiqing Pan, Philippe Peylin, Julia Pongratz, Benjamin Poulter, Thais M. Rosan, Qing Sun, Hanqin Tian, Anthony P. Walker, Ulrich Weber, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle

^*Corresponding author for this work

Integr. Assessm. Global Environm. Change

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

Abstract

The terrestrial biosphere plays a major role in the global carbon cycle, and there is a recognized need for regularly updated estimates of land-atmosphere exchange at regional and global scales. An international ensemble of Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs), known as the “Trends and drivers of the regional scale terrestrial sources and sinks of carbon dioxide” (TRENDY) project, quantifies land biophysical exchange processes and biogeochemistry cycles in support of the annual Global Carbon Budget assessments and the REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes, phase 2 project. DGVMs use a common protocol and set of driving data sets. A set of factorial simulations allows attribution of spatio-temporal changes in land surface processes to three primary global change drivers: changes in atmospheric CO₂, climate change and variability, and Land Use and Land Cover Changes (LULCC). Here, we describe the TRENDY project, benchmark DGVM performance using remote-sensing and other observational data, and present results for the contemporary period. Simulation results show a large global carbon sink in natural vegetation over 2012–2021, attributed to the CO₂ fertilization effect (3.8 ± 0.8 PgC/yr) and climate (−0.58 ± 0.54 PgC/yr). Forests and semi-arid ecosystems contribute approximately equally to the mean and trend in the natural land sink, and semi-arid ecosystems continue to dominate interannual variability. The natural sink is offset by net emissions from LULCC (−1.6 ± 0.5 PgC/yr), with a net land sink of 1.7 ± 0.6 PgC/yr. Despite the largest gross fluxes being in the tropics, the largest net land-atmosphere exchange is simulated in the extratropical regions.

Original language	English
Article number	e2024GB008102
Journal	Global Biogeochemical Cycles
Volume	38
Issue number	7
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GB008102
Publication status	Published - Jul 2024

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2024. The Author(s).

Funding

This work is part of the GCP-RECCAP2 project which is supported by the ESA Climate Change Initiative (contract no. 4000123002/18/I-NB), ESA Carbon-RO (4000140982/23/I-EF), European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under Grant Agreement No. 821003 (project 4C), the UK's Natural Environment Research Council (NE/S015833/1), and the CALIPSO (Carbon Losses in Plants, Soils and Oceans) project, funded through the generosity of Eric and Wendy Schmidt by recommendation of the Schmidt Futures program. H.T. acknowledges funding support from the U.S. National Science Foundation (Grant numbers: 1903722). JGC acknowledges funding from the Australian National Environmental Science Program - Climate Systems Hub. ORNL is managed by UT-Battelle, LLC, for the DOE under contract DE-AC05-1008 00OR22725. E.R. was supported by the Newton Fund through the Met Office Climate Science for Service Partnership Brazil (CSSP Brazil) and by the Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme funded by BEIS. For the purpose of open access, the author has applied a "Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license to any Author Accepted Manuscript version arising."

Funders	Funder number
Newton Fund
Australian National Environmental Science Program
Oak Ridge National Laboratory
Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme
Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, UK Government
ESA Carbon‐RO
ESA Climate Change Initiative	4000123002/18/I‐NB
National Science Foundation	1903722
U.S. Department of Energy	DE‐AC05‐1008 00OR22725
ESA Carbon-RO	4000140982/23/I-EF
Natural Environment Research Council	NE/S015833/1
Horizon 2020	821003

Keywords

dynamic global vegetation models
global carbon budget
land carbon cycle
RECCAP2
TRENDY

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.1029/2024GB008102Licence: CC BY

Global Biogeochemical Cycles - 2024 - Sitch - Trends and Drivers of Terrestrial Sources and Sinks of Carbon Dioxide AnFinal published version, 23.2 MBLicence: CC BY

Cite this

Sitch, S., O’Sullivan, M., Robertson, E., Friedlingstein, P., Albergel, C., Anthoni, P., Arneth, A., Arora, V. K., Bastos, A., Bastrikov, V., Bellouin, N., Canadell, J. G., Chini, L., Ciais, P., Falk, S., Harris, I., Hurtt, G., Ito, A., Jain, A. K., ... Zaehle, S. (2024). Trends and Drivers of Terrestrial Sources and Sinks of Carbon Dioxide: An Overview of the TRENDY Project. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 38(7), Article e2024GB008102. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GB008102

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abstract = "The terrestrial biosphere plays a major role in the global carbon cycle, and there is a recognized need for regularly updated estimates of land-atmosphere exchange at regional and global scales. An international ensemble of Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs), known as the “Trends and drivers of the regional scale terrestrial sources and sinks of carbon dioxide” (TRENDY) project, quantifies land biophysical exchange processes and biogeochemistry cycles in support of the annual Global Carbon Budget assessments and the REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes, phase 2 project. DGVMs use a common protocol and set of driving data sets. A set of factorial simulations allows attribution of spatio-temporal changes in land surface processes to three primary global change drivers: changes in atmospheric CO2, climate change and variability, and Land Use and Land Cover Changes (LULCC). Here, we describe the TRENDY project, benchmark DGVM performance using remote-sensing and other observational data, and present results for the contemporary period. Simulation results show a large global carbon sink in natural vegetation over 2012–2021, attributed to the CO2 fertilization effect (3.8 ± 0.8 PgC/yr) and climate (−0.58 ± 0.54 PgC/yr). Forests and semi-arid ecosystems contribute approximately equally to the mean and trend in the natural land sink, and semi-arid ecosystems continue to dominate interannual variability. The natural sink is offset by net emissions from LULCC (−1.6 ± 0.5 PgC/yr), with a net land sink of 1.7 ± 0.6 PgC/yr. Despite the largest gross fluxes being in the tropics, the largest net land-atmosphere exchange is simulated in the extratropical regions.",

keywords = "dynamic global vegetation models, global carbon budget, land carbon cycle, RECCAP2, TRENDY",

author = "Stephen Sitch and Michael O{\textquoteright}Sullivan and Eddy Robertson and Pierre Friedlingstein and Cl{\'e}ment Albergel and Peter Anthoni and Almut Arneth and Arora, {Vivek K.} and Ana Bastos and Vladislav Bastrikov and Nicolas Bellouin and Canadell, {Josep G.} and Louise Chini and Philippe Ciais and Stefanie Falk and Ian Harris and George Hurtt and Akihiko Ito and Jain, {Atul K.} and Jones, {Matthew W.} and Fortunat Joos and Etsushi Kato and Daniel Kennedy and {Klein Goldewijk}, Kees and Erik Kluzek and J{\"u}rgen Knauer and Lawrence, {Peter J.} and Danica Lombardozzi and Melton, {Joe R.} and Nabel, {Julia E.M.S.} and Naiqing Pan and Philippe Peylin and Julia Pongratz and Benjamin Poulter and Rosan, {Thais M.} and Qing Sun and Hanqin Tian and Walker, {Anthony P.} and Ulrich Weber and Wenping Yuan and Xu Yue and S{\"o}nke Zaehle",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2024. The Author(s).",

year = "2024",

month = jul,

doi = "10.1029/2024GB008102",

language = "English",

volume = "38",

journal = "Global Biogeochemical Cycles",

issn = "0886-6236",

publisher = "Wiley-Blackwell",

number = "7",

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Sitch, S, O’Sullivan, M, Robertson, E, Friedlingstein, P, Albergel, C, Anthoni, P, Arneth, A, Arora, VK, Bastos, A, Bastrikov, V, Bellouin, N, Canadell, JG, Chini, L, Ciais, P, Falk, S, Harris, I, Hurtt, G, Ito, A, Jain, AK, Jones, MW, Joos, F, Kato, E, Kennedy, D, Klein Goldewijk, K, Kluzek, E, Knauer, J, Lawrence, PJ, Lombardozzi, D, Melton, JR, Nabel, JEMS, Pan, N, Peylin, P, Pongratz, J, Poulter, B, Rosan, TM, Sun, Q, Tian, H, Walker, AP, Weber, U, Yuan, W, Yue, X & Zaehle, S 2024, 'Trends and Drivers of Terrestrial Sources and Sinks of Carbon Dioxide: An Overview of the TRENDY Project', Global Biogeochemical Cycles, vol. 38, no. 7, e2024GB008102. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GB008102

TY - JOUR

T1 - Trends and Drivers of Terrestrial Sources and Sinks of Carbon Dioxide

T2 - An Overview of the TRENDY Project

AU - Sitch, Stephen

AU - O’Sullivan, Michael

AU - Robertson, Eddy

AU - Friedlingstein, Pierre

AU - Albergel, Clément

AU - Anthoni, Peter

AU - Arneth, Almut

AU - Arora, Vivek K.

AU - Bastos, Ana

AU - Bastrikov, Vladislav

AU - Bellouin, Nicolas

AU - Canadell, Josep G.

AU - Chini, Louise

AU - Ciais, Philippe

AU - Falk, Stefanie

AU - Harris, Ian

AU - Hurtt, George

AU - Ito, Akihiko

AU - Jain, Atul K.

AU - Jones, Matthew W.

AU - Joos, Fortunat

AU - Kato, Etsushi

AU - Kennedy, Daniel

AU - Klein Goldewijk, Kees

AU - Kluzek, Erik

AU - Knauer, Jürgen

AU - Lawrence, Peter J.

AU - Lombardozzi, Danica

AU - Melton, Joe R.

AU - Nabel, Julia E.M.S.

AU - Pan, Naiqing

AU - Peylin, Philippe

AU - Pongratz, Julia

AU - Poulter, Benjamin

AU - Rosan, Thais M.

AU - Sun, Qing

AU - Tian, Hanqin

AU - Walker, Anthony P.

AU - Weber, Ulrich

AU - Yuan, Wenping

AU - Yue, Xu

AU - Zaehle, Sönke

PY - 2024/7

Y1 - 2024/7

N2 - The terrestrial biosphere plays a major role in the global carbon cycle, and there is a recognized need for regularly updated estimates of land-atmosphere exchange at regional and global scales. An international ensemble of Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs), known as the “Trends and drivers of the regional scale terrestrial sources and sinks of carbon dioxide” (TRENDY) project, quantifies land biophysical exchange processes and biogeochemistry cycles in support of the annual Global Carbon Budget assessments and the REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes, phase 2 project. DGVMs use a common protocol and set of driving data sets. A set of factorial simulations allows attribution of spatio-temporal changes in land surface processes to three primary global change drivers: changes in atmospheric CO2, climate change and variability, and Land Use and Land Cover Changes (LULCC). Here, we describe the TRENDY project, benchmark DGVM performance using remote-sensing and other observational data, and present results for the contemporary period. Simulation results show a large global carbon sink in natural vegetation over 2012–2021, attributed to the CO2 fertilization effect (3.8 ± 0.8 PgC/yr) and climate (−0.58 ± 0.54 PgC/yr). Forests and semi-arid ecosystems contribute approximately equally to the mean and trend in the natural land sink, and semi-arid ecosystems continue to dominate interannual variability. The natural sink is offset by net emissions from LULCC (−1.6 ± 0.5 PgC/yr), with a net land sink of 1.7 ± 0.6 PgC/yr. Despite the largest gross fluxes being in the tropics, the largest net land-atmosphere exchange is simulated in the extratropical regions.

AB - The terrestrial biosphere plays a major role in the global carbon cycle, and there is a recognized need for regularly updated estimates of land-atmosphere exchange at regional and global scales. An international ensemble of Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs), known as the “Trends and drivers of the regional scale terrestrial sources and sinks of carbon dioxide” (TRENDY) project, quantifies land biophysical exchange processes and biogeochemistry cycles in support of the annual Global Carbon Budget assessments and the REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes, phase 2 project. DGVMs use a common protocol and set of driving data sets. A set of factorial simulations allows attribution of spatio-temporal changes in land surface processes to three primary global change drivers: changes in atmospheric CO2, climate change and variability, and Land Use and Land Cover Changes (LULCC). Here, we describe the TRENDY project, benchmark DGVM performance using remote-sensing and other observational data, and present results for the contemporary period. Simulation results show a large global carbon sink in natural vegetation over 2012–2021, attributed to the CO2 fertilization effect (3.8 ± 0.8 PgC/yr) and climate (−0.58 ± 0.54 PgC/yr). Forests and semi-arid ecosystems contribute approximately equally to the mean and trend in the natural land sink, and semi-arid ecosystems continue to dominate interannual variability. The natural sink is offset by net emissions from LULCC (−1.6 ± 0.5 PgC/yr), with a net land sink of 1.7 ± 0.6 PgC/yr. Despite the largest gross fluxes being in the tropics, the largest net land-atmosphere exchange is simulated in the extratropical regions.

KW - dynamic global vegetation models

KW - global carbon budget

KW - land carbon cycle

KW - RECCAP2

KW - TRENDY

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SN - 0886-6236

VL - 38

JO - Global Biogeochemical Cycles

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M1 - e2024GB008102

ER -

Trends and Drivers of Terrestrial Sources and Sinks of Carbon Dioxide: An Overview of the TRENDY Project

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Funding

Keywords

UN SDGs

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