Transition Probabilities of Noise-induced Transitions of the Atlantic Ocean Circulation

D. Castellana; Sven Baars; Fred W. Wubs; H.A. Dijkstra

doi:10.1038/s41598-019-56435-6

Transition Probabilities of Noise-induced Transitions of the Atlantic Ocean Circulation

D. Castellana
, Sven Baars
, Fred W. Wubs
, H.A. Dijkstra

University of Groningen

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

Abstract

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is considered to be a tipping element of the climate system. As it cannot be excluded that the AMOC is in a multiple regime, transitions can occur due to atmospheric noise between the present-day state and a weaker AMOC state. For the first time, we here determine estimates of the transition probability of noise-induced transitions of the AMOC, within a certain time period, using a methodology from large deviation theory. We find that there are two types of transitions, with a partial or full collapse of the AMOC, having different transition probabilities. For the present-day state, we estimate the transition probability of the partial collapse over the next 100 years to be about 15%, with a high sensitivity of this probability to the surface freshwater noise amplitude.

Original language	English
Article number	20284
Pages (from-to)	1-7
Number of pages	7
Journal	Scientific Reports
Volume	9
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-56435-6
Publication status	Published - 30 Dec 2019

Keywords

AMOC
transition probabilities
collapse
noise
TAMS
rare event simulation, splitting techniques, power grids, reliability
tipping point

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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Cite this

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title = "Transition Probabilities of Noise-induced Transitions of the Atlantic Ocean Circulation",

abstract = "The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is considered to be a tipping element of the climate system. As it cannot be excluded that the AMOC is in a multiple regime, transitions can occur due to atmospheric noise between the present-day state and a weaker AMOC state. For the first time, we here determine estimates of the transition probability of noise-induced transitions of the AMOC, within a certain time period, using a methodology from large deviation theory. We find that there are two types of transitions, with a partial or full collapse of the AMOC, having different transition probabilities. For the present-day state, we estimate the transition probability of the partial collapse over the next 100 years to be about 15\%, with a high sensitivity of this probability to the surface freshwater noise amplitude.",

keywords = "AMOC, transition probabilities, collapse, noise, TAMS, rare event simulation, splitting techniques, power grids, reliability, tipping point",

author = "D. Castellana and Sven Baars and Wubs, \{Fred W.\} and H.A. Dijkstra",

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doi = "10.1038/s41598-019-56435-6",

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T1 - Transition Probabilities of Noise-induced Transitions of the Atlantic Ocean Circulation

AU - Castellana, D.

AU - Baars, Sven

AU - Wubs, Fred W.

AU - Dijkstra, H.A.

PY - 2019/12/30

Y1 - 2019/12/30

N2 - The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is considered to be a tipping element of the climate system. As it cannot be excluded that the AMOC is in a multiple regime, transitions can occur due to atmospheric noise between the present-day state and a weaker AMOC state. For the first time, we here determine estimates of the transition probability of noise-induced transitions of the AMOC, within a certain time period, using a methodology from large deviation theory. We find that there are two types of transitions, with a partial or full collapse of the AMOC, having different transition probabilities. For the present-day state, we estimate the transition probability of the partial collapse over the next 100 years to be about 15%, with a high sensitivity of this probability to the surface freshwater noise amplitude.

AB - The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is considered to be a tipping element of the climate system. As it cannot be excluded that the AMOC is in a multiple regime, transitions can occur due to atmospheric noise between the present-day state and a weaker AMOC state. For the first time, we here determine estimates of the transition probability of noise-induced transitions of the AMOC, within a certain time period, using a methodology from large deviation theory. We find that there are two types of transitions, with a partial or full collapse of the AMOC, having different transition probabilities. For the present-day state, we estimate the transition probability of the partial collapse over the next 100 years to be about 15%, with a high sensitivity of this probability to the surface freshwater noise amplitude.

KW - AMOC

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KW - collapse

KW - noise

KW - TAMS

KW - rare event simulation, splitting techniques, power grids, reliability

KW - tipping point

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DO - 10.1038/s41598-019-56435-6

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ER -

Transition Probabilities of Noise-induced Transitions of the Atlantic Ocean Circulation

Abstract

Keywords

UN SDGs

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