Abstract
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is considered to be a tipping element of the climate system. As it cannot be excluded that the AMOC is in a multiple regime, transitions can occur due to atmospheric noise between the present-day state and a weaker AMOC state. For the first time, we here determine estimates of the transition probability of noise-induced transitions of the AMOC, within a certain time period, using a methodology from large deviation theory. We find that there are two types of transitions, with a partial or full collapse of the AMOC, having different transition probabilities. For the present-day state, we estimate the transition probability of the partial collapse over the next 100 years to be about 15%, with a high sensitivity of this probability to the surface freshwater noise amplitude.
Original language | English |
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Article number | 20284 |
Pages (from-to) | 1-7 |
Number of pages | 7 |
Journal | Scientific Reports |
Volume | 9 |
DOIs | |
Publication status | Published - 30 Dec 2019 |
Keywords
- AMOC
- transition probabilities
- collapse
- noise
- TAMS
- rare event simulation, splitting techniques, power grids, reliability
- tipping point