Towards optimal 1.5° and 2 °C emission pathways for individual countries: A Finland case study

Fabio Sferra*, Mario Krapp, Niklas Roming, Michiel Schaeffer, Aman Malik, Bill Hare, Robert Brecha

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

Abstract

Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) submitted so far under the Paris Agreement are not in line with its long-term temperature goal. To bridge this gap, countries are required to provide regular updates and enhancements of their long-term targets and strategies, based on scientific assessments. The goal of this paper is to demonstrate a policy-support approach for evaluating NDCs and guiding enhanced ambition. The approach rests on deriving national targets in line with the Paris Agreement by downscaling regional results of Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) to the country level. The method of downscaling relies on a reduced complexity IAM: SIAMESE (Simplified Integrated Assessment Model with Energy System Emulator). We apply the approach to an EU28 member state – Finland – with the aim of providing useful insights for policy makers to consider cost-effective mitigation options. Results over the historical period confirm that our approach is valid when national policies are similar to those across the larger IAM region, but must include country-specific circumstances. Strengths and limitations of the approach are discussed. We assess the remaining carbon budget and analyse the different implications of 2 °C and 1.5 °C global warming limits for the emissions pathway and energy mix in Finland over the 21st century.

Original languageEnglish
Article number110705
JournalEnergy Policy
Volume133
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Oct 2019
Externally publishedYes

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
This paper has received funding from the Finnish Innovation Fund SITRA and from the German Federal Ministry for the Environment , Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety ( 16-II-148-Global-A-IMPACT ). The authors would like to thank Dr Joeri Rogelj at IIASA for kindly making emissions scenarios from the MESSAGE model available for this study. We also would like to thank Oras Tynkkynen and Janne Peljo at SITRA for useful comments and suggestions.

Funding Information:
This paper has received funding from the Finnish Innovation Fund SITRA and from the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (16-II-148-Global-A-IMPACT). The authors would like to thank Dr Joeri Rogelj at IIASA for kindly making emissions scenarios from the MESSAGE model available for this study. We also would like to thank Oras Tynkkynen and Janne Peljo at SITRA for useful comments and suggestions.

Publisher Copyright:
© 2019

Funding

This paper has received funding from the Finnish Innovation Fund SITRA and from the German Federal Ministry for the Environment , Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety ( 16-II-148-Global-A-IMPACT ). The authors would like to thank Dr Joeri Rogelj at IIASA for kindly making emissions scenarios from the MESSAGE model available for this study. We also would like to thank Oras Tynkkynen and Janne Peljo at SITRA for useful comments and suggestions. This paper has received funding from the Finnish Innovation Fund SITRA and from the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (16-II-148-Global-A-IMPACT). The authors would like to thank Dr Joeri Rogelj at IIASA for kindly making emissions scenarios from the MESSAGE model available for this study. We also would like to thank Oras Tynkkynen and Janne Peljo at SITRA for useful comments and suggestions.

Keywords

  • 1.5 °C pathway
  • Downscaling
  • Energy sector
  • Integrated assessment models
  • Mitigation
  • Paris agreement

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