Tipping mechanisms in a conceptual model of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

Ruth Chapman; Sacha Sinet; Paul D. L. Ritchie

doi:10.1002/wea.7609

Tipping mechanisms in a conceptual model of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

Ruth Chapman
, Sacha Sinet
, Paul D. L. Ritchie

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

Abstract

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) forms an essential component of the global ocean circulation. Paleoclimate records indicate the AMOC’s capability to tip between different states that resulted in large global climate impacts. Using an AMOC box model, re-calibrated against a global circulation model, HadGEM3, we present a new bifurcation analysis and showcase mechanisms that may lead the AMOC to tip from its current ‘on’ state to a collapsed ‘off’ state under climate change. We find that bifurcation- and noise-induced tipping remain viable tipping mechanisms as in previous calibrations, while rate-induced tipping only occurs for specific parameter configurations of this model.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	316-323
Journal	Weather
Volume	79
Issue number	10
Early online date	7 Aug 2024
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.7609
Publication status	Published - Oct 2024

Funding

R.C. conducted this research as part of an EPSRC CASE PhD studentship with the Met Office and the University of Exeter grant agreement number EP/T518049/1. S.S. acknowledges funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Marie Sklodowska-Curie Actions, grant agreement number 956170 (CriticalEarth), from the European Union's Horizon 2020 programme. P.D.L.R. was supported by the Optimal High Resolution Earth System Models for Exploring Future Climate Changes (OptimESM) project, grant agreement number 101081193 from the European Union's Horizon (Climate, Energy and Mobility). Thanks to Peter Ashwin and Richard Wood for their supervision and helpful comments on this work. Many thanks to Maya Ben-Yami for commentary on critical slowing down. Thank you to Hassan Alkhayuon for permission to reprint his results in Table S1. For the purpose of open access, the author has applied a Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) licence to any Author Accepted Manuscript version arising from this submission.

Funders	Funder number
EPSRC CASE PhD studentship
Met Office
University of Exeter	EP/T518049/1
European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Marie Sklodowska-Curie Actions	956170
European Union's Horizon 2020 programme
Optimal High Resolution Earth System Models for Exploring Future Climate Changes (OptimESM) project from the European Union's Horizon (Climate, Energy and Mobility)	101081193

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 13 Climate Action

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Weather - 2024 - Chapman - Tipping mechanisms in a conceptual model of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning CirculationFinal published version, 1.89 MBLicence: CC BY

Cite this

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title = "Tipping mechanisms in a conceptual model of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation",

abstract = "The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) forms an essential component of the global ocean circulation. Paleoclimate records indicate the AMOC{\textquoteright}s capability to tip between different states that resulted in large global climate impacts. Using an AMOC box model, re-calibrated against a global circulation model, HadGEM3, we present a new bifurcation analysis and showcase mechanisms that may lead the AMOC to tip from its current {\textquoteleft}on{\textquoteright} state to a collapsed {\textquoteleft}off{\textquoteright} state under climate change. We find that bifurcation- and noise-induced tipping remain viable tipping mechanisms as in previous calibrations, while rate-induced tipping only occurs for specific parameter configurations of this model.",

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N2 - The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) forms an essential component of the global ocean circulation. Paleoclimate records indicate the AMOC’s capability to tip between different states that resulted in large global climate impacts. Using an AMOC box model, re-calibrated against a global circulation model, HadGEM3, we present a new bifurcation analysis and showcase mechanisms that may lead the AMOC to tip from its current ‘on’ state to a collapsed ‘off’ state under climate change. We find that bifurcation- and noise-induced tipping remain viable tipping mechanisms as in previous calibrations, while rate-induced tipping only occurs for specific parameter configurations of this model.

AB - The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) forms an essential component of the global ocean circulation. Paleoclimate records indicate the AMOC’s capability to tip between different states that resulted in large global climate impacts. Using an AMOC box model, re-calibrated against a global circulation model, HadGEM3, we present a new bifurcation analysis and showcase mechanisms that may lead the AMOC to tip from its current ‘on’ state to a collapsed ‘off’ state under climate change. We find that bifurcation- and noise-induced tipping remain viable tipping mechanisms as in previous calibrations, while rate-induced tipping only occurs for specific parameter configurations of this model.

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SP - 316

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ER -

Tipping mechanisms in a conceptual model of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

Abstract

Funding

UN SDGs

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