The timing of decreasing coastal flood protection due to sea-level rise

Tim H.J. Hermans; Víctor Malagón-Santos; Caroline A. Katsman; Robert A. Jane; D. J. Rasmussen; Marjolijn Haasnoot; Gregory G. Garner; Robert E. Kopp; Michael Oppenheimer; Aimée B.A. Slangen

doi:10.1038/s41558-023-01616-5

The timing of decreasing coastal flood protection due to sea-level rise

Tim H.J. Hermans^*, Víctor Malagón-Santos, Caroline A. Katsman, Robert A. Jane, D. J. Rasmussen, Marjolijn Haasnoot, Gregory G. Garner, Robert E. Kopp, Michael Oppenheimer, Aimée B.A. Slangen

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

Abstract

Sea-level rise amplifies the frequency of extreme sea levels by raising their baseline height. Amplifications are often projected for arbitrary future years and benchmark frequencies. Consequently, such projections do not indicate when flood risk thresholds may be crossed given the current degree of local coastal protection. To better support adaptation planning and comparative vulnerability analyses, we project the timing of the frequency amplification of extreme sea levels relative to estimated local flood protection standards, using sea-level rise projections of IPCC AR6 until 2150. Our central estimates indicate that those degrees of protection will be exceeded ten times as frequently within the next 30 years (the lead time that large adaptation measures may take) at 26% and 32% of the tide gauges considered, and annually at 4% and 8%, for a low- and high-emissions scenario, respectively. Adaptation planners may use our framework to assess the available lead time and useful lifetime of protective infrastructure.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	359-366
Number of pages	8
Journal	Nature Climate Change
Volume	13
Issue number	4
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01616-5
Publication status	Published - Apr 2023

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
We thank S. Solari for sharing his automatic threshold selection code and T. Tiggeloven for elucidating the FLOPROS estimates. R.E.K. and M.O. were supported by the National Science Foundation (NSF) as part of the Megalopolitan Coastal Transformation Hub (MACH) under NSF award ICER-2103754. T.H.J.H., V.M.-S. and A.B.A.S. were supported by PROTECT. This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement no. 869304, PROTECT contribution number 58. T.H.J.H. also received funding from the NPP programme of NWO.

Publisher Copyright:
© 2023, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.

Funding

We thank S. Solari for sharing his automatic threshold selection code and T. Tiggeloven for elucidating the FLOPROS estimates. R.E.K. and M.O. were supported by the National Science Foundation (NSF) as part of the Megalopolitan Coastal Transformation Hub (MACH) under NSF award ICER-2103754. T.H.J.H., V.M.-S. and A.B.A.S. were supported by PROTECT. This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement no. 869304, PROTECT contribution number 58. T.H.J.H. also received funding from the NPP programme of NWO.

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.1038/s41558-023-01616-5

s41558-023-01616-5Final published version, 8.37 MBLicence: Taverne

Cite this

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abstract = "Sea-level rise amplifies the frequency of extreme sea levels by raising their baseline height. Amplifications are often projected for arbitrary future years and benchmark frequencies. Consequently, such projections do not indicate when flood risk thresholds may be crossed given the current degree of local coastal protection. To better support adaptation planning and comparative vulnerability analyses, we project the timing of the frequency amplification of extreme sea levels relative to estimated local flood protection standards, using sea-level rise projections of IPCC AR6 until 2150. Our central estimates indicate that those degrees of protection will be exceeded ten times as frequently within the next 30 years (the lead time that large adaptation measures may take) at 26% and 32% of the tide gauges considered, and annually at 4% and 8%, for a low- and high-emissions scenario, respectively. Adaptation planners may use our framework to assess the available lead time and useful lifetime of protective infrastructure.",

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AU - Slangen, Aimée B.A.

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The timing of decreasing coastal flood protection due to sea-level rise

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Funding

UN SDGs

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