The role of uncertainty in bedrock depth and hydraulic properties on the stability of a variably-saturated slope

Guilherme J.C. Gomes; Jasper A. Vrugt; Eurípedes A. Vargas; Julia T. Camargo; Raquel Q. Velloso; Martinus Th van Genuchten

doi:10.1016/j.compgeo.2017.03.016

The role of uncertainty in bedrock depth and hydraulic properties on the stability of a variably-saturated slope

Guilherme J.C. Gomes
, Jasper A. Vrugt
, Eurípedes A. Vargas
, Julia T. Camargo
, Raquel Q. Velloso
, Martinus Th van Genuchten

External unknown
Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Rio de Janeiro
Stanford University
NIDES Interdisciplinary Centr for Social Development
Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

Abstract

We investigate the uncertainty in bedrock depth and soil hydraulic parameters on the stability of a variably-saturated slope in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. We couple Monte Carlo simulation of a three-dimensional flow model with numerical limit analysis to calculate confidence intervals of the safety factor using a 22-day rainfall record. We evaluate the marginal and joint impact of bedrock depth and soil hydraulic uncertainty. The mean safety factor and its 95% confidence interval evolve rapidly in response to the storm events. Explicit recognition of uncertainty in the hydraulic properties and depth to bedrock increases significantly the probability of failure.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	222-241
Number of pages	20
Journal	Computers and Geotechnics
Volume	88
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compgeo.2017.03.016
Publication status	Published - Aug 2017

Keywords

Bedrock depth
Hydraulic parameters
Limit analysis
Safety factor
Slope stability
Unsaturated flow

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10.1016/j.compgeo.2017.03.016

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title = "The role of uncertainty in bedrock depth and hydraulic properties on the stability of a variably-saturated slope",

abstract = "We investigate the uncertainty in bedrock depth and soil hydraulic parameters on the stability of a variably-saturated slope in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. We couple Monte Carlo simulation of a three-dimensional flow model with numerical limit analysis to calculate confidence intervals of the safety factor using a 22-day rainfall record. We evaluate the marginal and joint impact of bedrock depth and soil hydraulic uncertainty. The mean safety factor and its 95\% confidence interval evolve rapidly in response to the storm events. Explicit recognition of uncertainty in the hydraulic properties and depth to bedrock increases significantly the probability of failure.",

keywords = "Bedrock depth, Hydraulic parameters, Limit analysis, Safety factor, Slope stability, Unsaturated flow",

author = "Gomes, \{Guilherme J.C.\} and Vrugt, \{Jasper A.\} and Vargas, \{Eur{\'i}pedes A.\} and Camargo, \{Julia T.\} and Velloso, \{Raquel Q.\} and \{van Genuchten\}, \{Martinus Th\}",

year = "2017",

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doi = "10.1016/j.compgeo.2017.03.016",

language = "English",

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T1 - The role of uncertainty in bedrock depth and hydraulic properties on the stability of a variably-saturated slope

AU - Gomes, Guilherme J.C.

AU - Vrugt, Jasper A.

AU - Vargas, Eurípedes A.

AU - Camargo, Julia T.

AU - Velloso, Raquel Q.

AU - van Genuchten, Martinus Th

PY - 2017/8

Y1 - 2017/8

N2 - We investigate the uncertainty in bedrock depth and soil hydraulic parameters on the stability of a variably-saturated slope in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. We couple Monte Carlo simulation of a three-dimensional flow model with numerical limit analysis to calculate confidence intervals of the safety factor using a 22-day rainfall record. We evaluate the marginal and joint impact of bedrock depth and soil hydraulic uncertainty. The mean safety factor and its 95% confidence interval evolve rapidly in response to the storm events. Explicit recognition of uncertainty in the hydraulic properties and depth to bedrock increases significantly the probability of failure.

AB - We investigate the uncertainty in bedrock depth and soil hydraulic parameters on the stability of a variably-saturated slope in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. We couple Monte Carlo simulation of a three-dimensional flow model with numerical limit analysis to calculate confidence intervals of the safety factor using a 22-day rainfall record. We evaluate the marginal and joint impact of bedrock depth and soil hydraulic uncertainty. The mean safety factor and its 95% confidence interval evolve rapidly in response to the storm events. Explicit recognition of uncertainty in the hydraulic properties and depth to bedrock increases significantly the probability of failure.

KW - Bedrock depth

KW - Hydraulic parameters

KW - Limit analysis

KW - Safety factor

KW - Slope stability

KW - Unsaturated flow

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85017148772

U2 - 10.1016/j.compgeo.2017.03.016

DO - 10.1016/j.compgeo.2017.03.016

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:85017148772

SN - 0266-352X

VL - 88

SP - 222

EP - 241

JO - Computers and Geotechnics

JF - Computers and Geotechnics

ER -

The role of uncertainty in bedrock depth and hydraulic properties on the stability of a variably-saturated slope

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Keywords

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