The potential contribution of imported biomass to renewable energy targets in the EU-the trade-off between ambitious greenhouse gas emission reduction targets and cost thresholds

Wood pellets could potentially contribute to bioenergy demand in the European Union (EU). Market cost constraints as well as greenhouse gas (GHG) emission savings thresholds imposed by the European Commission however limit the potential use of pellets. A spatially explicit assessment of import potentials of both pellets and torrefied pellets, based on the growing stock of forestry biomass in the US, Canada, Brazil, Russia and Baltic States, was combined with an analysis of supply chain costs and emissions in order to analyse potentials as limited by different levels of costs and emission constraints. Results show that in case of GHG savings thresholds of 70%, 80% and 85% the total import potential is reduced to 61 to 24 and 1 Mt, respectively. The potential for torrefied pellets is larger in all cases, 44 Mt in the case of an 80% limit. Import potentials at cost limits of 200, 175, 150 and 125 €/t are reduced from 58 Mt to 52, 38 and 9 Mt pellets, respectively, with little difference between pellets and torrefied pellets. This work shows that spatially explicit variation in feedstock availability and logistics has a significant impact on total import potentials and must therefore be included in any assessment of bioenergy potential and trade.