The paradox of measuring succes of nations in elite sport

The achievement of international and especially Olympic sporting success is increasingly
important to a growing number of countries. It is however not clear how success is
defined and can be measured. The number of medals won in Olympics Games and
other international sport competitions offers the most self-evident and transparent measure
of success in high performance sport. In this article different methods to measure
success of nations are compared. Market share was identified as the best measure of
absolute success which enables meaningful time series analysis to be conducted. A
Linear regression analysis is used to introduce relative success as a measurement of
success when controlling for macro determinants such as population and wealth. This
method allows comparing nations on more equal grounds, which is necessary if one
wants to measure effectiveness of elite sport policies. Similar analysis is done for
Olympic Summer and Winter Sports. It is concluded that conflicting results can be given
on nations' success. Defining success therefore depends on the purpose wherefore it is
used and on the priorities of individual nations.