The interplay between origin- and receiving-country conditions: experimental evidence on Ukrainian refugees’ return intentions

The conditions under which refugees want to return are shaped by unique considerations, as doing so would often mean returning to a country embroiled in or recovering from conflict. Using a vignette experiment among 1954 displaced Ukrainian refugees in Germany, we examine the interplay between potential origin- and receiving-country conditions as well as psychological characteristics in shaping their return intentions. Return intentions were measured right after exposure to vignettes based on manipulated conditions in Ukraine (safety, public infrastructure, employment opportunities, social network presence) and Germany (employment, housing, residence status). We provide novel experimental evidence on the relative importance of both country contexts and the moderating role of psychological characteristics–locus of control and sense of belonging. As expected, mixed-effects analyses revealed that better conditions in Ukraine and worse conditions in Germany increased refugees’ return intentions, with conditions in Ukraine–particularly the end of war–exerting a stronger influence. Unexpectedly, safety in Ukraine was not a prerequisite for worse conditions in Germany to motivate return. Overall, refugees display a hierarchy of needs, prioritising origin-country conditions. Psychological characteristics shape how structural conditions affect return intentions, underscoring refugees’ agency in their mobility.