The importance of stakeholders in scoping risk assessments: Lessons from low-carbon transitions

Oscar van Vliet; Susanne Hanger; Alexandros Nikas; Eise Spijker; Henrik Carlsen; Haris Doukas; Jenny Lieu

doi:10.1016/j.eist.2020.04.001

The importance of stakeholders in scoping risk assessments: Lessons from low-carbon transitions

Oscar van Vliet^*
, Susanne Hanger
, Alexandros Nikas
, Eise Spijker
, Henrik Carlsen
, Haris Doukas
, Jenny Lieu

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

Abstract

Identifying the risks that could impact a low-carbon transition is a prerequisite to assessing and managing these risks. We systematically characterise risks associated with decarbonisation pathways in fifteen case studies conducted in twelve countries around the world. We find that stakeholders from business, government, NGOs, and others supplied some 40 % of these risk inputs, significantly widening the scope of risks considered by academics and experts. Overall, experts and academics consider more economic risks and assess these with quantitative methods and models, while other stakeholders consider political risks more. To avoid losing sight of risks that cannot be easily quantified and modelled, including some economic risks, impact assessment modelling should be complemented with qualitative research and active stakeholder engagement. A systematic risk elicitation facilitates communication with stakeholders, enables better risk mitigation, and increases the chance of a sustainable transition.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	400-413
Journal	Environmental Innovation and Societal Transitions
Volume	35
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eist.2020.04.001
Publication status	Published - May 2020
Externally published	Yes

Funding

This work was part of the TRANSrisk project (see http://transrisk-project.eu ) and funded by the Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme of the European Union , grant agreement no. 642260 ; the research was also supported by the H2020 European Commission Project “PARIS REINFORCE” , under grant Agreement No. 820846 . The sole responsibility for the content of this paper lies with the authors; the paper does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the European Commission. The authors express their thanks to the case study leaders and researchers, especially Gabriel Bachner, Brigitte Wolkinger, Luis Virla Alvarado, Paula Díaz, Leonhard Späth, Christiane Plum, Song Lei, Chen Ying, Cynthia Ismail, Takeshi Takama, Xaquín García-Muros, Tim Suljada, Oliver Johnson, Rocio Alvarez, Annela Anger-Kraavi, Katerina Foruli, Sotiris Papadelis, Serafeim Michas, Duke Ghosh, Krisztina Szendrei, Björn Nykvist, and Luis Gonzalez.

Keywords

Climate policy
Integrated assessment models
Low-carbon transitions
Modelling
Risk assessment
Stakeholders

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.1016/j.eist.2020.04.001Licence: CC BY

Cite this

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abstract = "Identifying the risks that could impact a low-carbon transition is a prerequisite to assessing and managing these risks. We systematically characterise risks associated with decarbonisation pathways in fifteen case studies conducted in twelve countries around the world. We find that stakeholders from business, government, NGOs, and others supplied some 40 \% of these risk inputs, significantly widening the scope of risks considered by academics and experts. Overall, experts and academics consider more economic risks and assess these with quantitative methods and models, while other stakeholders consider political risks more. To avoid losing sight of risks that cannot be easily quantified and modelled, including some economic risks, impact assessment modelling should be complemented with qualitative research and active stakeholder engagement. A systematic risk elicitation facilitates communication with stakeholders, enables better risk mitigation, and increases the chance of a sustainable transition.",

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T1 - The importance of stakeholders in scoping risk assessments

T2 - Lessons from low-carbon transitions

AU - van Vliet, Oscar

AU - Hanger, Susanne

AU - Nikas, Alexandros

AU - Spijker, Eise

AU - Carlsen, Henrik

AU - Doukas, Haris

AU - Lieu, Jenny

PY - 2020/5

Y1 - 2020/5

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AB - Identifying the risks that could impact a low-carbon transition is a prerequisite to assessing and managing these risks. We systematically characterise risks associated with decarbonisation pathways in fifteen case studies conducted in twelve countries around the world. We find that stakeholders from business, government, NGOs, and others supplied some 40 % of these risk inputs, significantly widening the scope of risks considered by academics and experts. Overall, experts and academics consider more economic risks and assess these with quantitative methods and models, while other stakeholders consider political risks more. To avoid losing sight of risks that cannot be easily quantified and modelled, including some economic risks, impact assessment modelling should be complemented with qualitative research and active stakeholder engagement. A systematic risk elicitation facilitates communication with stakeholders, enables better risk mitigation, and increases the chance of a sustainable transition.

KW - Climate policy

KW - Integrated assessment models

KW - Low-carbon transitions

KW - Modelling

KW - Risk assessment

KW - Stakeholders

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The importance of stakeholders in scoping risk assessments: Lessons from low-carbon transitions

Abstract

Funding

Keywords

UN SDGs

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