The implications of geopolitical, socioeconomic, and regulatory constraints on European bioenergy imports and associated greenhouse gas emissions to 2050

Modern sustainable bioenergy can contribute toward mid-century European energy decarbonization targets by replacing fossil fuels. Fulfilling this role would require access to increased volumes of bioenergy, with extra-EU imports projected to play an important part. Access to this resource on the international marketplace is not governed by Europe's economic competitiveness alone. This study investigates geopolitical, socioeconomic, and regulatory considerations that can influence Europe's bioenergy imports but that are so far underexplored. The effect of these constraints on European import volumes, sourcing regions, mitigation potential, and their implications for European and global emissions is projected to the year 2050 using a global integrated assessment model. The projections show that Europe can significantly increase imports from 1.5 EJ year⁻¹ in 2020 to 8.1 EJ year⁻¹ by 2050 whilst remaining compliant with Renewables Energy Directive recast II (RED II) greenhouse gas (GHG) criteria. Under these conditions, bioenergy could provide annual GHG mitigation of 0.44 GtCO₂eq. in 2050. However, achieving this would require a structural diversification of trading partners from the present. Furthermore, socioeconomic and logistical concerns may limit the feasibility of some of the projected major sourcing regions, including Africa and South America. Failure to overcome these challenges within supplying regions could limit European imports by 60%, reducing annual mitigation to 0.16 GtCO₂eq. in 2050. From a global perspective, regions with a comparatively carbon-intense energy system offer an alternative destination for globally traded biomass that could increase the mitigative potential of bioenergy.