TY - JOUR
T1 - The impact of phosphorus on projected Sub-Saharan Africa food security futures
AU - Magnone, Daniel
AU - Niasar, Vahid J.
AU - Bouwman, Alexander F.
AU - Beusen, Arthur H.W.
AU - van der Zee, Sjoerd E.A.T.M.
AU - Sattari, Sheida Z.
N1 - Funding Information:
This research was funded by an EPSRC Global Challenges Research grant (EP/111676), UMRI grant awarded to V.J.N., and an N8 Agrifood grant awarded to V.J.N. and D.M. Data used for this study were provided by the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE). A.F.B and A.H.W.B received support from PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency through in-kind contributions to The New Delta 2014 ALW project no. 869.15.015 and no. 869.15.014. We thank Dr. Eric Ruto (University of Lincoln) and Professor Gary Bosworth (Northumbria University) for economic advice and feedback during the drafting of this paper. Finally, we are very grateful to Professor Hans van Meijl (Wageningen University) who provided guidance on food security during the revisions of this paper.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2022, The Author(s).
PY - 2022/10/29
Y1 - 2022/10/29
N2 - Sub-Saharan Africa must urgently improve food security. Phosphorus availability is one of the major barriers to this due to low historical agricultural use. Shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) indicate that only a sustainable (SSP1) or a fossil fuelled future (SSP5) can improve food security (in terms of price, availability, and risk of hunger) whilst nationalistic (SSP3) and unequal (SSP4) pathways worsen food security. Furthermore, sustainable SSP1 requires limited cropland expansion and low phosphorus use whilst the nationalistic SSP3 is as environmentally damaging as the fossil fuelled pathway. The middle of the road future (SSP2) maintains today’s inadequate food security levels only by using approximately 440 million tonnes of phosphate rock. Whilst this is within the current global reserve estimates the market price alone for a commonly used fertiliser (DAP) would cost US$ 130 ± 25 billion for agriculture over the period 2020 to 2050 and the farmgate price could be two to five times higher due to additional costs (e.g. transport, taxation etc.). Thus, to improve food security, economic growth within a sustainability context (SSP1) and the avoidance of nationalist ideology (SSP3) should be prioritised.
AB - Sub-Saharan Africa must urgently improve food security. Phosphorus availability is one of the major barriers to this due to low historical agricultural use. Shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) indicate that only a sustainable (SSP1) or a fossil fuelled future (SSP5) can improve food security (in terms of price, availability, and risk of hunger) whilst nationalistic (SSP3) and unequal (SSP4) pathways worsen food security. Furthermore, sustainable SSP1 requires limited cropland expansion and low phosphorus use whilst the nationalistic SSP3 is as environmentally damaging as the fossil fuelled pathway. The middle of the road future (SSP2) maintains today’s inadequate food security levels only by using approximately 440 million tonnes of phosphate rock. Whilst this is within the current global reserve estimates the market price alone for a commonly used fertiliser (DAP) would cost US$ 130 ± 25 billion for agriculture over the period 2020 to 2050 and the farmgate price could be two to five times higher due to additional costs (e.g. transport, taxation etc.). Thus, to improve food security, economic growth within a sustainability context (SSP1) and the avoidance of nationalist ideology (SSP3) should be prioritised.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85140876743&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1038/s41467-022-33900-x
DO - 10.1038/s41467-022-33900-x
M3 - Article
C2 - 36309491
AN - SCOPUS:85140876743
SN - 2041-1723
VL - 13
JO - Nature Communications
JF - Nature Communications
IS - 1
M1 - 6471
ER -