The heterogeneous effects of COVID-19 lockdowns on crime across the world

N. Trajtenberg; S. Fossati; C. Diaz; A. E. Nivette; R. Aguilar; A. Ahven; L. Andrade; S. Amram; B. Ariel; M. J. Arosemena Burbano; R. Astolfi; D. Baier; H. M. Bark; J. E.H. Beijers; M. Bergman; D. Borges; G. Breeztke; I. Cano; I. A. Concha Eastman; S. Curtis-Ham; R. Davenport; C. Droppelman; D. Fleitas; M. Gerell; K. H. Jang; J. Kääriäinen; T. Lappi-Seppälä; W. S. Lim; R. Loureiro Revilla; L. Mazerolle; C. Mendoza; G. Meško; N. Pereda; M. F. Peres; R. Poblete-Cazenave; E. Rojido; S. Rose; O. Sanchez de Ribera; R. Svensson; T. van der Lippe; J. A.M. Veldkamp; C. J. Vilalta Perdomo; R. Zahnow; M. P. Eisner

doi:10.1186/s40163-024-00220-y

The heterogeneous effects of COVID-19 lockdowns on crime across the world

N. Trajtenberg^*, S. Fossati, C. Diaz, A. E. Nivette, R. Aguilar, A. Ahven, L. Andrade, S. Amram, B. Ariel, M. J. Arosemena Burbano, R. Astolfi, D. Baier, H. M. Bark, J. E.H. Beijers, M. Bergman, D. Borges, G. Breeztke, I. Cano, I. A. Concha Eastman, S. Curtis-HamR. Davenport, C. Droppelman, D. Fleitas, M. Gerell, K. H. Jang, J. Kääriäinen, T. Lappi-Seppälä, W. S. Lim, R. Loureiro Revilla, L. Mazerolle, C. Mendoza, G. Meško, N. Pereda, M. F. Peres, R. Poblete-Cazenave, E. Rojido, S. Rose, O. Sanchez de Ribera, R. Svensson, T. van der Lippe, J. A.M. Veldkamp, C. J. Vilalta Perdomo, R. Zahnow, M. P. Eisner

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

Abstract

There is a vast literature evaluating the empirical association between stay-at-home policies and crime during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, these academic efforts have primarily focused on the effects within specific cities or regions rather than adopting a cross-national comparative approach. Moreover, this body of literature not only generally lacks causal estimates but also has overlooked possible heterogeneities across different levels of stringency in mobility restrictions. This paper exploits the spatial and temporal variation of government responses to the pandemic in 45 cities across five continents to identify the causal impact of strict lockdown policies on the number of offenses reported to local police. We find that cities that implemented strict lockdowns experienced larger declines in some crime types (robbery, burglary, vehicle theft) but not others (assault, theft, homicide). This decline in crime rates attributed to more stringent policy responses represents only a small proportion of the effects documented in the literature.

Original language	English
Article number	22
Journal	Crime Science
Volume	13
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1186/s40163-024-00220-y
Publication status	Published - 22 Aug 2024

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© The Author(s) 2024.

Funding

Thanks to two anonymous reviewers and to the Reading Sessions in Quantitative Criminology (RESQUANT) group of the University of Manchester for their comments.

Funders	Funder number
University of Manchester

Keywords

COVID-19
Crime
Cross-national
Strict lockdown
Synthetic control

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

Access to Document

10.1186/s40163-024-00220-yLicence: CC BY

s40163-024-00220-yFinal published version, 1.14 MBLicence: CC BY

Cite this

Trajtenberg, N., Fossati, S., Diaz, C., Nivette, A. E., Aguilar, R., Ahven, A., Andrade, L., Amram, S., Ariel, B., Arosemena Burbano, M. J., Astolfi, R., Baier, D., Bark, H. M., Beijers, J. E. H., Bergman, M., Borges, D., Breeztke, G., Cano, I., Concha Eastman, I. A., ... Eisner, M. P. (2024). The heterogeneous effects of COVID-19 lockdowns on crime across the world. Crime Science, 13(1), Article 22. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40163-024-00220-y

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abstract = "There is a vast literature evaluating the empirical association between stay-at-home policies and crime during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, these academic efforts have primarily focused on the effects within specific cities or regions rather than adopting a cross-national comparative approach. Moreover, this body of literature not only generally lacks causal estimates but also has overlooked possible heterogeneities across different levels of stringency in mobility restrictions. This paper exploits the spatial and temporal variation of government responses to the pandemic in 45 cities across five continents to identify the causal impact of strict lockdown policies on the number of offenses reported to local police. We find that cities that implemented strict lockdowns experienced larger declines in some crime types (robbery, burglary, vehicle theft) but not others (assault, theft, homicide). This decline in crime rates attributed to more stringent policy responses represents only a small proportion of the effects documented in the literature.",

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Trajtenberg, N, Fossati, S, Diaz, C, Nivette, AE, Aguilar, R, Ahven, A, Andrade, L, Amram, S, Ariel, B, Arosemena Burbano, MJ, Astolfi, R, Baier, D, Bark, HM, Beijers, JEH, Bergman, M, Borges, D, Breeztke, G, Cano, I, Concha Eastman, IA, Curtis-Ham, S, Davenport, R, Droppelman, C, Fleitas, D, Gerell, M, Jang, KH, Kääriäinen, J, Lappi-Seppälä, T, Lim, WS, Loureiro Revilla, R, Mazerolle, L, Mendoza, C, Meško, G, Pereda, N, Peres, MF, Poblete-Cazenave, R, Rojido, E, Rose, S, de Ribera, OS, Svensson, R, van der Lippe, T, Veldkamp, JAM, Vilalta Perdomo, CJ, Zahnow, R & Eisner, MP 2024, 'The heterogeneous effects of COVID-19 lockdowns on crime across the world', Crime Science, vol. 13, no. 1, 22. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40163-024-00220-y

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AU - Fossati, S.

AU - Diaz, C.

AU - Nivette, A. E.

AU - Aguilar, R.

AU - Ahven, A.

AU - Andrade, L.

AU - Amram, S.

AU - Ariel, B.

AU - Arosemena Burbano, M. J.

AU - Astolfi, R.

AU - Baier, D.

AU - Bark, H. M.

AU - Beijers, J. E.H.

AU - Bergman, M.

AU - Borges, D.

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AU - Kääriäinen, J.

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AU - Lim, W. S.

AU - Loureiro Revilla, R.

AU - Mazerolle, L.

AU - Mendoza, C.

AU - Meško, G.

AU - Pereda, N.

AU - Peres, M. F.

AU - Poblete-Cazenave, R.

AU - Rojido, E.

AU - Rose, S.

AU - de Ribera, O. Sanchez

AU - Svensson, R.

AU - van der Lippe, T.

AU - Veldkamp, J. A.M.

AU - Vilalta Perdomo, C. J.

AU - Zahnow, R.

AU - Eisner, M. P.

PY - 2024/8/22

Y1 - 2024/8/22

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AB - There is a vast literature evaluating the empirical association between stay-at-home policies and crime during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, these academic efforts have primarily focused on the effects within specific cities or regions rather than adopting a cross-national comparative approach. Moreover, this body of literature not only generally lacks causal estimates but also has overlooked possible heterogeneities across different levels of stringency in mobility restrictions. This paper exploits the spatial and temporal variation of government responses to the pandemic in 45 cities across five continents to identify the causal impact of strict lockdown policies on the number of offenses reported to local police. We find that cities that implemented strict lockdowns experienced larger declines in some crime types (robbery, burglary, vehicle theft) but not others (assault, theft, homicide). This decline in crime rates attributed to more stringent policy responses represents only a small proportion of the effects documented in the literature.

KW - COVID-19

KW - Crime

KW - Cross-national

KW - Strict lockdown

KW - Synthetic control

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SN - 2193-7680

VL - 13

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ER -

The heterogeneous effects of COVID-19 lockdowns on crime across the world

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Funding

Keywords

UN SDGs

Access to Document

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Correction to: The heterogeneous effects of COVID-19 lockdowns on crime across the world (Crime Science, (2024), 13, 1, (22), 10.1186/s40163-024-00220-y)

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