The future sea-level rise contribution of Greenland's glaciers and ice caps

H. Machguth; P. Rastner; T. Bolch; N. Moelg; L. Sandberg Sorensen; G. Aoalgeirsdottir; J. H. van Angelen; M. R. van den Broeke; X. Fettweis

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/025005

The future sea-level rise contribution of Greenland's glaciers and ice caps

H. Machguth^*, P. Rastner, T. Bolch, N. Moelg, L. Sandberg Sorensen, G. Aoalgeirsdottir, J. H. van Angelen, M. R. van den Broeke, X. Fettweis

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

Abstract

We calculate the future sea-level rise contribution from the surface mass balance of all of Greenland's glaciers and ice caps (GICs, similar to 90 000 km(2)) using a simplified energy balance model which is driven by three future climate scenarios from the regional climate models HIRHAM5, RACMO2 and MAR. Glacier extent and surface elevation are modified during the mass balance model runs according to a glacier retreat parameterization. Mass balance and glacier surface change are both calculated on a 250 m resolution digital elevation model yielding a high level of detail and ensuring that important feedback mechanisms are considered. The mass loss of all GICs by 2098 is calculated to be 2016 +/- 129 Gt (HIRHAM5 forcing), 2584 +/- 109 Gt (RACMO2) and 3907 +/- 108 Gt (MAR). This corresponds to a total contribution to sea-level rise of 5.8 +/- 0.4, 7.4 +/- 0.3 and 11.2 +/- 0.3 mm, respectively. Sensitivity experiments suggest that mass loss could be higher by 20-30% if a strong lowering of the surface albedo were to take place in the future. It is shown that the sea-level rise contribution from the north-easterly regions of Greenland is reduced by increasing precipitation while mass loss in the southern half of Greenland is dominated by steadily decreasing summer mass balances. In addition we observe glaciers in the north-eastern part of Greenland changing their characteristics towards greater activity and mass turnover.

Original language	English
Article number	025005
Number of pages	14
Journal	Environmental Research Letters
Volume	8
Issue number	2
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/025005
Publication status	Published - 2013

Funding

Henrik Hojmark Thomsen and Anker Weidick provided most valuable help in tracking down almost forgotten data on ice thickness observations and mass balance. The comments and suggestions of three anonymous reviewers helped to improve the manuscript and are highly acknowledged. HM is supported by the PROMICE program for the monitoring of the Greenland ice sheet and GlacioBasis monitoring funded by the Danish Energy Agency. This work is supported by funding from the ice2sea program from the European Union 7th Framework Program, grant number 226375. Ice2sea contribution number ice2sea135.

Keywords

Greenland
glaciers and ice caps
sea level rise contribution
climate model output
glacier retreat parameterization
SURFACE MASS-BALANCE
CLIMATE MODEL MAR
SOUTHEAST GREENLAND
MOUNTAIN GLACIERS
LOCAL GLACIERS
SHEET
PARAMETERIZATION
SIMULATIONS
SENSITIVITY
PROJECTIONS

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/025005

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title = "The future sea-level rise contribution of Greenland's glaciers and ice caps",

abstract = "We calculate the future sea-level rise contribution from the surface mass balance of all of Greenland's glaciers and ice caps (GICs, similar to 90 000 km(2)) using a simplified energy balance model which is driven by three future climate scenarios from the regional climate models HIRHAM5, RACMO2 and MAR. Glacier extent and surface elevation are modified during the mass balance model runs according to a glacier retreat parameterization. Mass balance and glacier surface change are both calculated on a 250 m resolution digital elevation model yielding a high level of detail and ensuring that important feedback mechanisms are considered. The mass loss of all GICs by 2098 is calculated to be 2016 +/- 129 Gt (HIRHAM5 forcing), 2584 +/- 109 Gt (RACMO2) and 3907 +/- 108 Gt (MAR). This corresponds to a total contribution to sea-level rise of 5.8 +/- 0.4, 7.4 +/- 0.3 and 11.2 +/- 0.3 mm, respectively. Sensitivity experiments suggest that mass loss could be higher by 20-30% if a strong lowering of the surface albedo were to take place in the future. It is shown that the sea-level rise contribution from the north-easterly regions of Greenland is reduced by increasing precipitation while mass loss in the southern half of Greenland is dominated by steadily decreasing summer mass balances. In addition we observe glaciers in the north-eastern part of Greenland changing their characteristics towards greater activity and mass turnover.",

keywords = "Greenland, glaciers and ice caps, sea level rise contribution, climate model output, glacier retreat parameterization, SURFACE MASS-BALANCE, CLIMATE MODEL MAR, SOUTHEAST GREENLAND, MOUNTAIN GLACIERS, LOCAL GLACIERS, SHEET, PARAMETERIZATION, SIMULATIONS, SENSITIVITY, PROJECTIONS",

author = "H. Machguth and P. Rastner and T. Bolch and N. Moelg and Sorensen, {L. Sandberg} and G. Aoalgeirsdottir and {van Angelen}, {J. H.} and {van den Broeke}, {M. R.} and X. Fettweis",

year = "2013",

doi = "10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/025005",

language = "English",

volume = "8",

journal = "Environmental Research Letters",

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TY - JOUR

T1 - The future sea-level rise contribution of Greenland's glaciers and ice caps

AU - Machguth, H.

AU - Rastner, P.

AU - Bolch, T.

AU - Moelg, N.

AU - Sorensen, L. Sandberg

AU - Aoalgeirsdottir, G.

AU - van Angelen, J. H.

AU - van den Broeke, M. R.

AU - Fettweis, X.

PY - 2013

Y1 - 2013

N2 - We calculate the future sea-level rise contribution from the surface mass balance of all of Greenland's glaciers and ice caps (GICs, similar to 90 000 km(2)) using a simplified energy balance model which is driven by three future climate scenarios from the regional climate models HIRHAM5, RACMO2 and MAR. Glacier extent and surface elevation are modified during the mass balance model runs according to a glacier retreat parameterization. Mass balance and glacier surface change are both calculated on a 250 m resolution digital elevation model yielding a high level of detail and ensuring that important feedback mechanisms are considered. The mass loss of all GICs by 2098 is calculated to be 2016 +/- 129 Gt (HIRHAM5 forcing), 2584 +/- 109 Gt (RACMO2) and 3907 +/- 108 Gt (MAR). This corresponds to a total contribution to sea-level rise of 5.8 +/- 0.4, 7.4 +/- 0.3 and 11.2 +/- 0.3 mm, respectively. Sensitivity experiments suggest that mass loss could be higher by 20-30% if a strong lowering of the surface albedo were to take place in the future. It is shown that the sea-level rise contribution from the north-easterly regions of Greenland is reduced by increasing precipitation while mass loss in the southern half of Greenland is dominated by steadily decreasing summer mass balances. In addition we observe glaciers in the north-eastern part of Greenland changing their characteristics towards greater activity and mass turnover.

AB - We calculate the future sea-level rise contribution from the surface mass balance of all of Greenland's glaciers and ice caps (GICs, similar to 90 000 km(2)) using a simplified energy balance model which is driven by three future climate scenarios from the regional climate models HIRHAM5, RACMO2 and MAR. Glacier extent and surface elevation are modified during the mass balance model runs according to a glacier retreat parameterization. Mass balance and glacier surface change are both calculated on a 250 m resolution digital elevation model yielding a high level of detail and ensuring that important feedback mechanisms are considered. The mass loss of all GICs by 2098 is calculated to be 2016 +/- 129 Gt (HIRHAM5 forcing), 2584 +/- 109 Gt (RACMO2) and 3907 +/- 108 Gt (MAR). This corresponds to a total contribution to sea-level rise of 5.8 +/- 0.4, 7.4 +/- 0.3 and 11.2 +/- 0.3 mm, respectively. Sensitivity experiments suggest that mass loss could be higher by 20-30% if a strong lowering of the surface albedo were to take place in the future. It is shown that the sea-level rise contribution from the north-easterly regions of Greenland is reduced by increasing precipitation while mass loss in the southern half of Greenland is dominated by steadily decreasing summer mass balances. In addition we observe glaciers in the north-eastern part of Greenland changing their characteristics towards greater activity and mass turnover.

KW - Greenland

KW - glaciers and ice caps

KW - sea level rise contribution

KW - climate model output

KW - glacier retreat parameterization

KW - SURFACE MASS-BALANCE

KW - CLIMATE MODEL MAR

KW - SOUTHEAST GREENLAND

KW - MOUNTAIN GLACIERS

KW - LOCAL GLACIERS

KW - SHEET

KW - PARAMETERIZATION

KW - SIMULATIONS

KW - SENSITIVITY

KW - PROJECTIONS

U2 - 10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/025005

DO - 10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/025005

M3 - Article

SN - 1748-9326

VL - 8

JO - Environmental Research Letters

JF - Environmental Research Letters

IS - 2

M1 - 025005

ER -

The future sea-level rise contribution of Greenland's glaciers and ice caps

Abstract

Funding

Keywords

UN SDGs

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