The coupling of viewing and doing: Strategic niche management and the electrification of individual transport

Although foresighting has gained widespread acceptance in the context of strategy formulation in industry and governments, its actual impact on technology development remains unclear. The authors propose the approach of strategic niche management in order to couple long-term visions more tightly with short-term and medium-term action. Such coupling, they argue, is strengthened by developing technological niches: i.e. protected spaces in which learning about the technology takes place and its embedding in society can be observed and tested before large-scale diffusion begins. Real-world experiments with new technologies are a major instrument for developing technological niches. Empirical illustration is taken from recent attempts at sustainable technology development in the realm of individual transportation. Many foresighting exercises have identified the electrification of the vehicle drive train as a promising route. Three major experiments with alternative approaches to the electrification of cars-battery-run vehicles, hybrid vehicles and fuel cell vehicles-will be compared with regard to the coupling of 'viewing' and 'doing'. Based on the analysis of these examples, the authors claim that the development of scenarios without an explicit dedication to taking action risks the generation of more confusion than guidance; similarly, experimentation without taking a long-term view will result in very mediocre results, with limited practical impact on sustainable development.