Ten new insights in climate science 2020- A horizon scan

Erik Pihl; Eva Alfredsson; Magnus Bengtsson; Kathryn J. Bowen; Vanesa Cástan Broto; Kuei Tien Chou; Helen Cleugh; Kristie Ebi; Clea M. Edwards; Eleanor Fisher; Pierre Friedlingstein; Alex Godoy-Faúndez; Mukesh Gupta; Alexandra R. Harrington; Katie Hayes; Bronwyn M. Hayward; Sophie R. Hebden; Thomas Hickmann; Gustaf Hugelius; Tatiana Ilyina; Robert B. Jackson; Trevor F. Keenan; Ria A. Lambino; Sebastian Leuzinger; Mikael Malmaeus; Robert I. McDonald; Celia McMichael; Clark A. Miller; Matteo Muratori; Nidhi Nagabhatla; Harini Nagendra; Cristian Passarello; Josep Penuelas; Julia Pongratz; Johan Rockström; Patricia Romero-Lankao; Joyashree Roy; Adam A. Scaife; Peter Schlosser; Edward Schuur; Michelle Scobie; Steven C. Sherwood; Giles B. Sioen; Jakob Skovgaard; Edgardo A. Sobenes Obregon; Sebastian Sonntag; Joachim H. Spangenberg; Otto Spijkers; Leena Srivastava; Detlef P. Van Vuuren

doi:10.1017/sus.2021.2

Ten new insights in climate science 2020- A horizon scan

Erik Pihl
, Eva Alfredsson
, Magnus Bengtsson
, Kathryn J. Bowen
, Vanesa Cástan Broto
, Kuei Tien Chou
, Helen Cleugh
, Kristie Ebi
, Clea M. Edwards
, Eleanor Fisher
, Pierre Friedlingstein
, Alex Godoy-Faúndez
, Mukesh Gupta
, Alexandra R. Harrington
, Katie Hayes
, Bronwyn M. Hayward
, Sophie R. Hebden
, Thomas Hickmann
, Gustaf Hugelius
, Tatiana Ilyina

Robert B. Jackson, Trevor F. Keenan, Ria A. Lambino, Sebastian Leuzinger, Mikael Malmaeus, Robert I. McDonald, Celia McMichael, Clark A. Miller, Matteo Muratori, Nidhi Nagabhatla, Harini Nagendra, Cristian Passarello, Josep Penuelas, Julia Pongratz, Johan Rockström, Patricia Romero-Lankao, Joyashree Roy, Adam A. Scaife, Peter Schlosser, Edward Schuur, Michelle Scobie, Steven C. Sherwood, Giles B. Sioen, Jakob Skovgaard, Edgardo A. Sobenes Obregon^*, Sebastian Sonntag, Joachim H. Spangenberg, Otto Spijkers, Leena Srivastava, Detlef P. Van Vuuren

^*Corresponding author for this work

Future Earth
KTH Royal Institute of Technology
Hot or Cool Institute
Australian National University
University of Sheffield
National Taiwan University
CSIRO
University of Washington
Arizona State University
Nordic Africa Institute
University of Exeter
Universidad del Desarrollo
Asian University for Women
Center for International Sustainable Development Law
Fulbright Canada Foundation
Albany Law School
Health Canada
University of Canterbury
University of Surrey
Stockholm University
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
Stanford University
University of California at Berkeley
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
National Institutes for the Humanities, Research Institute for Humanity and Nature
Auckland University of Technology
IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute
University of Melbourne
National Renewable Energy Laboratory
United Nations University
McMaster University
Azim Premji University
Future Earth Global Secretariat
CSIC
Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich
University of Potsdam
The University of Chicago
Asian Institute of Technology
Jadavpur University
Met Office
Northern Arizona University
The University of the West Indies
University of New South Wales
Future Earth Global Secretariat
National Institute for Environmental Studies of Japan
Lund University
Independent Consultant in Public International Law
Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht - Centre for Materials and Coastal Research
Sustainable Europe Research Institute SERI Germany
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

Abstract

Non-technical summary
We summarize some of the past year's most important findings within climate change-related research. New research has improved our understanding of Earth's sensitivity to carbon dioxide, finds that permafrost thaw could release more carbon emissions than expected and that the uptake of carbon in tropical ecosystems is weakening. Adverse impacts on human society include increasing water shortages and impacts on mental health. Options for solutions emerge from rethinking economic models, rights-based litigation, strengthened governance systems and a new social contract. The disruption caused by COVID-19 could be seized as an opportunity for positive change, directing economic stimulus towards sustainable investments.

Technical summary
A synthesis is made of ten fields within climate science where there have been significant advances since mid-2019, through an expert elicitation process with broad disciplinary scope. Findings include: (1) a better understanding of equilibrium climate sensitivity; (2) abrupt thaw as an accelerator of carbon release from permafrost; (3) changes to global and regional land carbon sinks; (4) impacts of climate change on water crises, including equity perspectives; (5) adverse effects on mental health from climate change; (6) immediate effects on climate of the COVID-19 pandemic and requirements for recovery packages to deliver on the Paris Agreement; (7) suggested long-term changes to governance and a social contract to address climate change, learning from the current pandemic, (8) updated positive cost–benefit ratio and new perspectives on the potential for green growth in the short- and long-term perspective; (9) urban electrification as a strategy to move towards low-carbon energy systems and (10) rights-based litigation as an increasingly important method to address climate change, with recent clarifications on the legal standing and representation of future generations.

Social media summary
Stronger permafrost thaw, COVID-19 effects and growing mental health impacts among highlights of latest climate science.

Original language	English
Article number	e5
Pages (from-to)	1-18
Number of pages	18
Journal	Global Sustainability
Volume	4
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1017/sus.2021.2
Publication status	Published - 2021

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
Copyright © The Author(s), 2021. Published by Cambridge University Press.

Copyright:
Copyright 2021 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 3 Good Health and Well-being
SDG 11 Sustainable Cities and Communities
SDG 13 Climate Action
SDG 15 Life on Land

Keywords

climate anxiety
climate feedbacks
climate governance
climate impacts
climate litigation
climate mitigation
climate models
climate policy
environmental economics
future earth
risk governance
thermokarst
urban transformations
water stress

Access to Document

10.1017/sus.2021.2Licence: CC BY

ten-new-insights-in-climate-science-2020-a-horizon-scanFinal published version, 927 KBLicence: CC BY

Cite this

Pihl, E., Alfredsson, E., Bengtsson, M., Bowen, K. J., Cástan Broto, V., Chou, K. T., Cleugh, H., Ebi, K., Edwards, C. M., Fisher, E., Friedlingstein, P., Godoy-Faúndez, A., Gupta, M., Harrington, A. R., Hayes, K., Hayward, B. M., Hebden, S. R., Hickmann, T., Hugelius, G., ... Van Vuuren, D. P. (2021). Ten new insights in climate science 2020- A horizon scan. Global Sustainability, 4, 1-18. Article e5. https://doi.org/10.1017/sus.2021.2

@article{b55a5de7ae9242469397cdfb16b03a48,

title = "Ten new insights in climate science 2020- A horizon scan",

abstract = "Non-technical summary We summarize some of the past year's most important findings within climate change-related research. New research has improved our understanding of Earth's sensitivity to carbon dioxide, finds that permafrost thaw could release more carbon emissions than expected and that the uptake of carbon in tropical ecosystems is weakening. Adverse impacts on human society include increasing water shortages and impacts on mental health. Options for solutions emerge from rethinking economic models, rights-based litigation, strengthened governance systems and a new social contract. The disruption caused by COVID-19 could be seized as an opportunity for positive change, directing economic stimulus towards sustainable investments. Technical summary A synthesis is made of ten fields within climate science where there have been significant advances since mid-2019, through an expert elicitation process with broad disciplinary scope. Findings include: (1) a better understanding of equilibrium climate sensitivity; (2) abrupt thaw as an accelerator of carbon release from permafrost; (3) changes to global and regional land carbon sinks; (4) impacts of climate change on water crises, including equity perspectives; (5) adverse effects on mental health from climate change; (6) immediate effects on climate of the COVID-19 pandemic and requirements for recovery packages to deliver on the Paris Agreement; (7) suggested long-term changes to governance and a social contract to address climate change, learning from the current pandemic, (8) updated positive cost–benefit ratio and new perspectives on the potential for green growth in the short- and long-term perspective; (9) urban electrification as a strategy to move towards low-carbon energy systems and (10) rights-based litigation as an increasingly important method to address climate change, with recent clarifications on the legal standing and representation of future generations. Social media summary Stronger permafrost thaw, COVID-19 effects and growing mental health impacts among highlights of latest climate science.",

keywords = "climate anxiety, climate feedbacks, climate governance, climate impacts, climate litigation, climate mitigation, climate models, climate policy, environmental economics, future earth, risk governance, thermokarst, urban transformations, water stress",

author = "Erik Pihl and Eva Alfredsson and Magnus Bengtsson and Bowen, \{Kathryn J.\} and \{C{\'a}stan Broto\}, Vanesa and Chou, \{Kuei Tien\} and Helen Cleugh and Kristie Ebi and Edwards, \{Clea M.\} and Eleanor Fisher and Pierre Friedlingstein and Alex Godoy-Fa{\'u}ndez and Mukesh Gupta and Harrington, \{Alexandra R.\} and Katie Hayes and Hayward, \{Bronwyn M.\} and Hebden, \{Sophie R.\} and Thomas Hickmann and Gustaf Hugelius and Tatiana Ilyina and Jackson, \{Robert B.\} and Keenan, \{Trevor F.\} and Lambino, \{Ria A.\} and Sebastian Leuzinger and Mikael Malmaeus and McDonald, \{Robert I.\} and Celia McMichael and Miller, \{Clark A.\} and Matteo Muratori and Nidhi Nagabhatla and Harini Nagendra and Cristian Passarello and Josep Penuelas and Julia Pongratz and Johan Rockstr{\"o}m and Patricia Romero-Lankao and Joyashree Roy and Scaife, \{Adam A.\} and Peter Schlosser and Edward Schuur and Michelle Scobie and Sherwood, \{Steven C.\} and Sioen, \{Giles B.\} and Jakob Skovgaard and \{Sobenes Obregon\}, \{Edgardo A.\} and Sebastian Sonntag and Spangenberg, \{Joachim H.\} and Otto Spijkers and Leena Srivastava and \{Van Vuuren\}, \{Detlef P.\}",

year = "2021",

doi = "10.1017/sus.2021.2",

language = "English",

volume = "4",

pages = "1--18",

journal = "Global Sustainability",

issn = "2059-4798",

publisher = "Cambridge University Press",

}

Pihl, E, Alfredsson, E, Bengtsson, M, Bowen, KJ, Cástan Broto, V, Chou, KT, Cleugh, H, Ebi, K, Edwards, CM, Fisher, E, Friedlingstein, P, Godoy-Faúndez, A, Gupta, M, Harrington, AR, Hayes, K, Hayward, BM, Hebden, SR, Hickmann, T, Hugelius, G, Ilyina, T, Jackson, RB, Keenan, TF, Lambino, RA, Leuzinger, S, Malmaeus, M, McDonald, RI, McMichael, C, Miller, CA, Muratori, M, Nagabhatla, N, Nagendra, H, Passarello, C, Penuelas, J, Pongratz, J, Rockström, J, Romero-Lankao, P, Roy, J, Scaife, AA, Schlosser, P, Schuur, E, Scobie, M, Sherwood, SC, Sioen, GB, Skovgaard, J, Sobenes Obregon, EA, Sonntag, S, Spangenberg, JH, Spijkers, O, Srivastava, L & Van Vuuren, DP 2021, 'Ten new insights in climate science 2020- A horizon scan', Global Sustainability, vol. 4, e5, pp. 1-18. https://doi.org/10.1017/sus.2021.2

TY - JOUR

T1 - Ten new insights in climate science 2020- A horizon scan

AU - Pihl, Erik

AU - Alfredsson, Eva

AU - Bengtsson, Magnus

AU - Bowen, Kathryn J.

AU - Cástan Broto, Vanesa

AU - Chou, Kuei Tien

AU - Cleugh, Helen

AU - Ebi, Kristie

AU - Edwards, Clea M.

AU - Fisher, Eleanor

AU - Friedlingstein, Pierre

AU - Godoy-Faúndez, Alex

AU - Gupta, Mukesh

AU - Harrington, Alexandra R.

AU - Hayes, Katie

AU - Hayward, Bronwyn M.

AU - Hebden, Sophie R.

AU - Hickmann, Thomas

AU - Hugelius, Gustaf

AU - Ilyina, Tatiana

AU - Jackson, Robert B.

AU - Keenan, Trevor F.

AU - Lambino, Ria A.

AU - Leuzinger, Sebastian

AU - Malmaeus, Mikael

AU - McDonald, Robert I.

AU - McMichael, Celia

AU - Miller, Clark A.

AU - Muratori, Matteo

AU - Nagabhatla, Nidhi

AU - Nagendra, Harini

AU - Passarello, Cristian

AU - Penuelas, Josep

AU - Pongratz, Julia

AU - Rockström, Johan

AU - Romero-Lankao, Patricia

AU - Roy, Joyashree

AU - Scaife, Adam A.

AU - Schlosser, Peter

AU - Schuur, Edward

AU - Scobie, Michelle

AU - Sherwood, Steven C.

AU - Sioen, Giles B.

AU - Skovgaard, Jakob

AU - Sobenes Obregon, Edgardo A.

AU - Sonntag, Sebastian

AU - Spangenberg, Joachim H.

AU - Spijkers, Otto

AU - Srivastava, Leena

AU - Van Vuuren, Detlef P.

PY - 2021

Y1 - 2021

N2 - Non-technical summary We summarize some of the past year's most important findings within climate change-related research. New research has improved our understanding of Earth's sensitivity to carbon dioxide, finds that permafrost thaw could release more carbon emissions than expected and that the uptake of carbon in tropical ecosystems is weakening. Adverse impacts on human society include increasing water shortages and impacts on mental health. Options for solutions emerge from rethinking economic models, rights-based litigation, strengthened governance systems and a new social contract. The disruption caused by COVID-19 could be seized as an opportunity for positive change, directing economic stimulus towards sustainable investments. Technical summary A synthesis is made of ten fields within climate science where there have been significant advances since mid-2019, through an expert elicitation process with broad disciplinary scope. Findings include: (1) a better understanding of equilibrium climate sensitivity; (2) abrupt thaw as an accelerator of carbon release from permafrost; (3) changes to global and regional land carbon sinks; (4) impacts of climate change on water crises, including equity perspectives; (5) adverse effects on mental health from climate change; (6) immediate effects on climate of the COVID-19 pandemic and requirements for recovery packages to deliver on the Paris Agreement; (7) suggested long-term changes to governance and a social contract to address climate change, learning from the current pandemic, (8) updated positive cost–benefit ratio and new perspectives on the potential for green growth in the short- and long-term perspective; (9) urban electrification as a strategy to move towards low-carbon energy systems and (10) rights-based litigation as an increasingly important method to address climate change, with recent clarifications on the legal standing and representation of future generations. Social media summary Stronger permafrost thaw, COVID-19 effects and growing mental health impacts among highlights of latest climate science.

AB - Non-technical summary We summarize some of the past year's most important findings within climate change-related research. New research has improved our understanding of Earth's sensitivity to carbon dioxide, finds that permafrost thaw could release more carbon emissions than expected and that the uptake of carbon in tropical ecosystems is weakening. Adverse impacts on human society include increasing water shortages and impacts on mental health. Options for solutions emerge from rethinking economic models, rights-based litigation, strengthened governance systems and a new social contract. The disruption caused by COVID-19 could be seized as an opportunity for positive change, directing economic stimulus towards sustainable investments. Technical summary A synthesis is made of ten fields within climate science where there have been significant advances since mid-2019, through an expert elicitation process with broad disciplinary scope. Findings include: (1) a better understanding of equilibrium climate sensitivity; (2) abrupt thaw as an accelerator of carbon release from permafrost; (3) changes to global and regional land carbon sinks; (4) impacts of climate change on water crises, including equity perspectives; (5) adverse effects on mental health from climate change; (6) immediate effects on climate of the COVID-19 pandemic and requirements for recovery packages to deliver on the Paris Agreement; (7) suggested long-term changes to governance and a social contract to address climate change, learning from the current pandemic, (8) updated positive cost–benefit ratio and new perspectives on the potential for green growth in the short- and long-term perspective; (9) urban electrification as a strategy to move towards low-carbon energy systems and (10) rights-based litigation as an increasingly important method to address climate change, with recent clarifications on the legal standing and representation of future generations. Social media summary Stronger permafrost thaw, COVID-19 effects and growing mental health impacts among highlights of latest climate science.

KW - climate anxiety

KW - climate feedbacks

KW - climate governance

KW - climate impacts

KW - climate litigation

KW - climate mitigation

KW - climate models

KW - climate policy

KW - environmental economics

KW - future earth

KW - risk governance

KW - thermokarst

KW - urban transformations

KW - water stress

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85102083882

U2 - 10.1017/sus.2021.2

DO - 10.1017/sus.2021.2

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:85102083882

SN - 2059-4798

VL - 4

SP - 1

EP - 18

JO - Global Sustainability

JF - Global Sustainability

M1 - e5

ER -

Ten new insights in climate science 2020- A horizon scan

Abstract

Bibliographical note

UN SDGs

Keywords

Access to Document

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