Targeted Green Recovery Measures in a Post-COVID-19 World Enable the Energy Transition

Ioannis Dafnomilis; Hsing-Hsuan Chen; Michel G J den Elzen; Panagiotis Fragkos; Unnada Chewpreecha; Heleen van Soest; Kostas Fragkiadakis; Panagiotis Karkatsoulis; Leonidas Paroussas; Harmen Sytze de Boer; Vassilis Daioglou; Oreane Edelenbosch; Bence Kiss-Dobronyi; Detlef van Vuuren

doi:10.3389/fclim.2022.840933

Targeted Green Recovery Measures in a Post-COVID-19 World Enable the Energy Transition

Ioannis Dafnomilis, Hsing-Hsuan Chen, Michel G J den Elzen, Panagiotis Fragkos, Unnada Chewpreecha, Heleen van Soest, Kostas Fragkiadakis, Panagiotis Karkatsoulis, Leonidas Paroussas, Harmen Sytze de Boer, Vassilis Daioglou, Oreane Edelenbosch, Bence Kiss-Dobronyi, Detlef van Vuuren

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

Abstract

Despite the significant volume of fiscal recovery measures announced by countries to deal with the COVID-19 crisis, most recovery plans allocate a low percentage to green recovery. We present scenarios exploring the medium- and long-term impact of the COVID-19 crisis and develop a Green Recovery scenario using three well-established global models to analyze the impact of a low-carbon focused stimulus. The results show that a Green Recovery scenario, with 1% of global GDP in fiscal support directed to mitigation measures for 3 years, could reduce global CO2 emissions by 10.5–15.5% below pre-COVID-19 projections by 2030, closing 8–11.5% of the emissions gap with cost-optimal 2°C pathways. The share of renewables in global electricity generation is projected to reach 45% in 2030, the uptake of electric vehicles would be accelerated, and energy efficiency in the buildings and industry sector would improve. However, such a temporary investment should be reinforced with sustained climate policies after 2023 to put the world on a 2°C pathway by mid-century.

Original language	English
Article number	840933
Pages (from-to)	1-13
Journal	Frontiers in Climate
Volume	4
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2022.840933
Publication status	Published - 7 Jun 2022

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
This work is supported by the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (Grant Agreement No. 821471: ENGAGE and Grant Agreement No. 821124: NAVIGATE).

Publisher Copyright:
Copyright © 2022 Dafnomilis, Chen, den Elzen, Fragkos, Chewpreecha, van Soest, Fragkiadakis, Karkatsoulis, Paroussos, de Boer, Daioglou, Edelenbosch, Kiss-Dobronyi and van Vuuren.

Keywords

CO emissions
COVID-19
Paris Agreement
energy transition
green recovery
green stimulus

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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fclim-04-840933Final published version, 1.65 MBLicence: CC BY

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Dafnomilis, I., Chen, H.-H., den Elzen, M. G. J., Fragkos, P., Chewpreecha, U., van Soest, H., Fragkiadakis, K., Karkatsoulis, P., Paroussas, L., de Boer, H. S., Daioglou, V., Edelenbosch, O., Kiss-Dobronyi, B., & van Vuuren, D. (2022). Targeted Green Recovery Measures in a Post-COVID-19 World Enable the Energy Transition. Frontiers in Climate, 4, 1-13. Article 840933. https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2022.840933

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title = "Targeted Green Recovery Measures in a Post-COVID-19 World Enable the Energy Transition",

abstract = "Despite the significant volume of fiscal recovery measures announced by countries to deal with the COVID-19 crisis, most recovery plans allocate a low percentage to green recovery. We present scenarios exploring the medium- and long-term impact of the COVID-19 crisis and develop a Green Recovery scenario using three well-established global models to analyze the impact of a low-carbon focused stimulus. The results show that a Green Recovery scenario, with 1% of global GDP in fiscal support directed to mitigation measures for 3 years, could reduce global CO2 emissions by 10.5–15.5% below pre-COVID-19 projections by 2030, closing 8–11.5% of the emissions gap with cost-optimal 2°C pathways. The share of renewables in global electricity generation is projected to reach 45% in 2030, the uptake of electric vehicles would be accelerated, and energy efficiency in the buildings and industry sector would improve. However, such a temporary investment should be reinforced with sustained climate policies after 2023 to put the world on a 2°C pathway by mid-century.",

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note = "Funding Information: This work is supported by the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (Grant Agreement No. 821471: ENGAGE and Grant Agreement No. 821124: NAVIGATE). Publisher Copyright: Copyright {\textcopyright} 2022 Dafnomilis, Chen, den Elzen, Fragkos, Chewpreecha, van Soest, Fragkiadakis, Karkatsoulis, Paroussos, de Boer, Daioglou, Edelenbosch, Kiss-Dobronyi and van Vuuren.",

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Dafnomilis, I, Chen, H-H, den Elzen, MGJ, Fragkos, P, Chewpreecha, U, van Soest, H, Fragkiadakis, K, Karkatsoulis, P, Paroussas, L, de Boer, HS, Daioglou, V, Edelenbosch, O, Kiss-Dobronyi, B & van Vuuren, D 2022, 'Targeted Green Recovery Measures in a Post-COVID-19 World Enable the Energy Transition', Frontiers in Climate, vol. 4, 840933, pp. 1-13. https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2022.840933

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AU - Dafnomilis, Ioannis

AU - Chen, Hsing-Hsuan

AU - den Elzen, Michel G J

AU - Fragkos, Panagiotis

AU - Chewpreecha, Unnada

AU - van Soest, Heleen

AU - Fragkiadakis, Kostas

AU - Karkatsoulis, Panagiotis

AU - Paroussas, Leonidas

AU - de Boer, Harmen Sytze

AU - Daioglou, Vassilis

AU - Edelenbosch, Oreane

AU - Kiss-Dobronyi, Bence

AU - van Vuuren, Detlef

N1 - Funding Information: This work is supported by the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (Grant Agreement No. 821471: ENGAGE and Grant Agreement No. 821124: NAVIGATE). Publisher Copyright: Copyright © 2022 Dafnomilis, Chen, den Elzen, Fragkos, Chewpreecha, van Soest, Fragkiadakis, Karkatsoulis, Paroussos, de Boer, Daioglou, Edelenbosch, Kiss-Dobronyi and van Vuuren.

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N2 - Despite the significant volume of fiscal recovery measures announced by countries to deal with the COVID-19 crisis, most recovery plans allocate a low percentage to green recovery. We present scenarios exploring the medium- and long-term impact of the COVID-19 crisis and develop a Green Recovery scenario using three well-established global models to analyze the impact of a low-carbon focused stimulus. The results show that a Green Recovery scenario, with 1% of global GDP in fiscal support directed to mitigation measures for 3 years, could reduce global CO2 emissions by 10.5–15.5% below pre-COVID-19 projections by 2030, closing 8–11.5% of the emissions gap with cost-optimal 2°C pathways. The share of renewables in global electricity generation is projected to reach 45% in 2030, the uptake of electric vehicles would be accelerated, and energy efficiency in the buildings and industry sector would improve. However, such a temporary investment should be reinforced with sustained climate policies after 2023 to put the world on a 2°C pathway by mid-century.

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KW - Paris Agreement

KW - energy transition

KW - green recovery

KW - green stimulus

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DO - 10.3389/fclim.2022.840933

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JO - Frontiers in Climate

JF - Frontiers in Climate

M1 - 840933

ER -

Targeted Green Recovery Measures in a Post-COVID-19 World Enable the Energy Transition

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Keywords

UN SDGs

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