TY - JOUR
T1 - Targeted Green Recovery Measures in a Post-COVID-19 World Enable the Energy Transition
AU - Dafnomilis, Ioannis
AU - Chen, Hsing-Hsuan
AU - den Elzen, Michel G J
AU - Fragkos, Panagiotis
AU - Chewpreecha, Unnada
AU - van Soest, Heleen
AU - Fragkiadakis, Kostas
AU - Karkatsoulis, Panagiotis
AU - Paroussas, Leonidas
AU - de Boer, Harmen Sytze
AU - Daioglou, Vassilis
AU - Edelenbosch, Oreane
AU - Kiss-Dobronyi, Bence
AU - van Vuuren, Detlef
N1 - Funding Information:
This work is supported by the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (Grant Agreement No. 821471: ENGAGE and Grant Agreement No. 821124: NAVIGATE).
Publisher Copyright:
Copyright © 2022 Dafnomilis, Chen, den Elzen, Fragkos, Chewpreecha, van Soest, Fragkiadakis, Karkatsoulis, Paroussos, de Boer, Daioglou, Edelenbosch, Kiss-Dobronyi and van Vuuren.
PY - 2022/6/7
Y1 - 2022/6/7
N2 - Despite the significant volume of fiscal recovery measures announced by countries to deal with the COVID-19 crisis, most recovery plans allocate a low percentage to green recovery. We present scenarios exploring the medium- and long-term impact of the COVID-19 crisis and develop a Green Recovery scenario using three well-established global models to analyze the impact of a low-carbon focused stimulus. The results show that a Green Recovery scenario, with 1% of global GDP in fiscal support directed to mitigation measures for 3 years, could reduce global CO2 emissions by 10.5–15.5% below pre-COVID-19 projections by 2030, closing 8–11.5% of the emissions gap with cost-optimal 2°C pathways. The share of renewables in global electricity generation is projected to reach 45% in 2030, the uptake of electric vehicles would be accelerated, and energy efficiency in the buildings and industry sector would improve. However, such a temporary investment should be reinforced with sustained climate policies after 2023 to put the world on a 2°C pathway by mid-century.
AB - Despite the significant volume of fiscal recovery measures announced by countries to deal with the COVID-19 crisis, most recovery plans allocate a low percentage to green recovery. We present scenarios exploring the medium- and long-term impact of the COVID-19 crisis and develop a Green Recovery scenario using three well-established global models to analyze the impact of a low-carbon focused stimulus. The results show that a Green Recovery scenario, with 1% of global GDP in fiscal support directed to mitigation measures for 3 years, could reduce global CO2 emissions by 10.5–15.5% below pre-COVID-19 projections by 2030, closing 8–11.5% of the emissions gap with cost-optimal 2°C pathways. The share of renewables in global electricity generation is projected to reach 45% in 2030, the uptake of electric vehicles would be accelerated, and energy efficiency in the buildings and industry sector would improve. However, such a temporary investment should be reinforced with sustained climate policies after 2023 to put the world on a 2°C pathway by mid-century.
KW - CO emissions
KW - COVID-19
KW - Paris Agreement
KW - energy transition
KW - green recovery
KW - green stimulus
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85132804231&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.3389/fclim.2022.840933
DO - 10.3389/fclim.2022.840933
M3 - Article
SN - 2624-9553
VL - 4
SP - 1
EP - 13
JO - Frontiers in Climate
JF - Frontiers in Climate
M1 - 840933
ER -