Subsidence reveals potential impacts of future sea level rise on inhabited mangrove coasts

Celine E. J. van Bijsterveldt; Peter M. J. Herman; Bregje K. van Wesenbeeck; Sri Ramadhani; Tom S. Heuts; Corinne van Starrenburg; Silke A. J. Tas; Annisa Triyanti; Muhammad Helmi; Femke H. Tonneijck; Tjeerd J. Bouma

doi:10.1038/s41893-023-01226-1

Subsidence reveals potential impacts of future sea level rise on inhabited mangrove coasts

Celine E. J. van Bijsterveldt^*, Peter M. J. Herman, Bregje K. van Wesenbeeck, Sri Ramadhani, Tom S. Heuts, Corinne van Starrenburg, Silke A. J. Tas, Annisa Triyanti, Muhammad Helmi, Femke H. Tonneijck, Tjeerd J. Bouma

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

Abstract

Human-induced land subsidence causes many coastal areas to sink centimetres per year, exacerbating relative sea level rise (RSLR). While cities combat this problem through investment in coastal infrastructure, rural areas are highly dependent on the persistence of protective coastal ecosystems, such as mangroves and marshes. To shed light on the future of low-lying rural areas in the face of RSLR, we here studied a 20-km-long rural coastline neighbouring a sinking city in Indonesia, reportedly sinking with 8–20 cm per year. By measuring water levels in mangroves and quantifying floor raisings of village houses, we show that, while villages experienced rapidly rising water levels, their protective mangroves experience less rapid changes in RSLR. Individual trees were able to cope with RSLR rates of 4.3 (95% confidence interval 2.3–6.3) cm per year through various root adaptations when sediment was available locally. However, lateral retreat of the forest proved inevitable, with RSLR rates up to four times higher than foreshore accretion, forcing people from coastal communities to migrate as the shoreline retreated. Whereas local RSLR may be effectively reduced by better management of groundwater resources, the effects of RSLR described here predict a gloomy prospect for rural communities that are facing globally induced sea level rise beyond the control of local or regional government.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	1565-1577
Number of pages	13
Journal	Nature Sustainability
Volume	6
Issue number	12
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-023-01226-1
Publication status	Published - Dec 2023

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2023, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.

Funding

This work is part of the BioManCo project with project number 14753, which is (partly) financed by NWO Domain Applied and Engineering Sciences, and Engineering Sciences, and co-financed by Boskalis Dredging and Marine experts, Van Oord Dredging and Marine Contractors bv, Deltares, Witteveen + Bos and Wetlands International. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish or preparation of the manuscript. We are grateful to the group of 32 volunteers, including students from Diponegoro University, State University of Semarang and local volunteers who, coordinated by S.R., conducted the interviews and distributed the questionnaire to the local community in Semarang-Demak area. In addition, we thank L. Ni’am and F. Rahmawan who provided additional insight into the socio-economical issues in the local communities of the Semarang-Demak area. We thank A. Ismanto and R. Pribadi for facilitating student participation of Diponegoro University in fore-shore field experiments. Additionally, we thank the Wetlands International Indonesia team for helping us identify relevant publicly available census data of the Demak Regency (A. Susanto Astra) and by connecting us to local village chiefs for background interviews on the subsidence in the area (thank you E. Budi Priyanto). We thank bapak Sairi and ibu Musaini, and their children, as well as, bapak Slamet and ibu Paini and their family for hosting the researchers and students in their own homes. We are grateful to bapak Muis and bapak Umar for their roles as local translators. We also thank bapak Yogie, manager of Combo Putra hardware store in Banyumanik, for his technical advice and enthusiastic participation in experiment and monitoring design with the materials available. Finally, we thank A. Wielemaker for technical support with GIS and T. van der Heide for polishing the storyline.

Funders
NWO Domain Applied and Engineering Sciences
Universitas Negeri Semarang
Universitas Diponegoro

Keywords

biogegraphy
climate-change ecology
climate-change impacts
natural hazards
restoration ecology

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.1038/s41893-023-01226-1

s41893-023-01226-1Final published version, 5.56 MBLicence: Taverne

Cite this

Bijsterveldt, C. E. J. V., Herman, P. M. J., Wesenbeeck, B. K. V., Ramadhani, S., Heuts, T. S., Starrenburg, C. V., Tas, S. A. J., Triyanti, A., Helmi, M., Tonneijck, F. H., & Bouma, T. J. (2023). Subsidence reveals potential impacts of future sea level rise on inhabited mangrove coasts. Nature Sustainability, 6(12), 1565-1577. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-023-01226-1

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abstract = "Human-induced land subsidence causes many coastal areas to sink centimetres per year, exacerbating relative sea level rise (RSLR). While cities combat this problem through investment in coastal infrastructure, rural areas are highly dependent on the persistence of protective coastal ecosystems, such as mangroves and marshes. To shed light on the future of low-lying rural areas in the face of RSLR, we here studied a 20-km-long rural coastline neighbouring a sinking city in Indonesia, reportedly sinking with 8–20 cm per year. By measuring water levels in mangroves and quantifying floor raisings of village houses, we show that, while villages experienced rapidly rising water levels, their protective mangroves experience less rapid changes in RSLR. Individual trees were able to cope with RSLR rates of 4.3 (95\% confidence interval 2.3–6.3) cm per year through various root adaptations when sediment was available locally. However, lateral retreat of the forest proved inevitable, with RSLR rates up to four times higher than foreshore accretion, forcing people from coastal communities to migrate as the shoreline retreated. Whereas local RSLR may be effectively reduced by better management of groundwater resources, the effects of RSLR described here predict a gloomy prospect for rural communities that are facing globally induced sea level rise beyond the control of local or regional government.",

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Subsidence reveals potential impacts of future sea level rise on inhabited mangrove coasts

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Funding

Keywords

UN SDGs

Access to Document

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