Subduction zone seismicity and the thermo-mechanical evolution of downgoing lithosphere

In this paper we discuss characteristic features of subduction zone seismicity at depths between about 100 km and 700 km, with emphasis on the role of temperature and rheology in controlling the deformation of, and the seismic energy release in downgoing lithosphere. This is done in two steps. After a brief review of earlier developments, we first show that the depth distribution of hypocentres at depths between 100 km and 700 km in subducted lithosphere can be explained by a model in which seismic activity is confined to those parts of the slab which have temperatures below a depth-dependent critical value T_cr. Second, the variation of seismic energy release (frequency of events, magnitude) with depth is addressed by inferring a rheological evolution from the slab's thermal evolution and by combining this with models for the system of forces acting on the subducting lithosphere. It is found that considerable stress concentration occurs in a reheating slab in the depth range of 400 to 650-700 km: the slab weakens, but the stress level strongly increases. On the basis of this stress concentration a model is formulated for earthquake generation within subducting slabs. The model predicts a maximum depth of seismic activity in the depth range of 635 to 760 km and, for deep earthquake zones, a relative maximum in seismic energy release near the maximum depth of earthquakes. From our modelling it follows that, whereas such a maximum is indeed likely to develop in deep earthquake zones, zones with a maximum depth around 300 km (such as the Aleutians) are expected to exhibit a smooth decay in seismic energy release with depth. This is in excellent agreement with observational data. In conclusion, the incoroporation of both depth-dependent forces and depth-dependent rheology provides new insight into the generation of intermediate and deep earthquakes and into the variation of seismic activity with depth. Our results imply that no barrier to slab penetration at a depth of 650-700 km is required to explain the maximum depth of seismic activity and the pattern of seismic energy release in deep earthquake zones.