Spatially variable response of Antarctica’s ice sheets to orbital forcing during the Pliocene

Molly O. Patterson; Christiana Rosenberg; Osamu Seki; Masanobu Yamamoto; Oscar E. Romero; Mei Nelissen; Francesca Sangiorgi; Nicholas R. Golledge; Georgia Grant; William D. Arnuk; Benjamin Keisling; Timothy Naish; Richard Levy; Stephen Meyers; Nicholas Sullivan; Jeanine Ash; Denise Kulhanek; Brian W. Romans; Natalia Varela Valenzuela; Harold Jones; Francois Beny; Imogen Browne; Giuseppe Cortese; Isobela M.C. Sousa; Justin P. Dodd; Oliver M. Esper; Jenny Gales; David Harwood; Saki Ishino; Sookwan Kim; Sunghan Kim; Jan S. Laberg; R. Mark Leckie; Juliane Müller; Amelia Shevenell; Shiv Singh; Saiko T. Sugisaki; Tina van de Flierdt; Tim van Peer; Wenshen Xiao; Zhifang Xiong; Laura De Santis; Robert McKay

doi:10.1038/s41561-025-01840-y

Spatially variable response of Antarctica’s ice sheets to orbital forcing during the Pliocene

Molly O. Patterson^*
, Christiana Rosenberg
, Osamu Seki
, Masanobu Yamamoto
, Oscar E. Romero
, Mei Nelissen
, Francesca Sangiorgi
, Nicholas R. Golledge
, Georgia Grant
, William D. Arnuk
, Benjamin Keisling
, Timothy Naish
, Richard Levy
, Stephen Meyers
, Nicholas Sullivan
, Jeanine Ash
, Denise Kulhanek
, Brian W. Romans
, Natalia Varela Valenzuela
, Harold Jones

Francois Beny, Imogen Browne, Giuseppe Cortese, Isobela M.C. Sousa, Justin P. Dodd, Oliver M. Esper, Jenny Gales, David Harwood, Saki Ishino, Sookwan Kim, Sunghan Kim, Jan S. Laberg, R. Mark Leckie, Juliane Müller, Amelia Shevenell, Shiv Singh, Saiko T. Sugisaki, Tina van de Flierdt, Tim van Peer, Wenshen Xiao, Zhifang Xiong, Laura De Santis, Robert McKay

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

Abstract

Variations in Earth’s orbit pace global ice-volume and sea-level changes, but the variability in the response for different sectors of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to orbitally forced climate change remains unclear. Here we present geological records of iceberg-rafted debris and other proxies from locations adjacent to the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) with comparisons to an existing East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) record over the time interval ~3.3–2.3 million years ago. Iceberg calving events from the WAIS recorded in Ross Sea sediment cores show a linear response to orbital forcing at timescales corresponding to obliquity (~40,000 years) and precession (~23,000–19,000 years) modulated by eccentricity (~100,000 years). This contrasts with an existing record adjacent to the EAIS, which does not contain obliquity pacing. Combined with ice-sheet model sensitivity tests, the geological data show that the WAIS is highly dynamic and responsive to oceanic melt driven by changes in Southern Ocean circulation, together with atmospheric forcing through variations in local insolation. Conversely, the EAIS appears less responsive to oceanic forcing, despite being the dominant source of meltwater to the global ocean during the mid-Pliocene. Our results imply a substantial role for atmospheric warming on mid-Pliocene sea-level from both WAIS and EAIS.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	182-188
Number of pages	7
Journal	Nature Geoscience
Volume	19
Issue number	2
Early online date	2 Jan 2026
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-025-01840-y
Publication status	Published - Feb 2026

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited 2026.

Funding

This research used data and samples provided by the International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP), which is sponsored by the US National Science Foundation (NSF) and participating countries under the management of Joint Oceanographic Institutions. Development of the IBRD MAR record was funded by grant numbers NSF-OCE 1450528 and NSF-OPP 2000997. Organic geochemical palaeoceanographic proxies (TEX and δD of n-C fatty acid), performed by O.S. and M.Y., was funded by the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS) KAKENHI Grant Numbers 17H01166, 17H06318 and 20H00626. Biogenic opal MAR was determined by O.E.R. and funded by the German Research Foundation (DFG) (grant no. R03039/4). N.R.G. was funded by the Royal Society of New Zealand contract VUW-1501 and by Ministry for Business, Innovation and Employment contracts RTUV1705 (NZSeaRise). R.M. was funded by Royal Society of New Zealand Marsden Fund contract MFP-VUW2207. R.M. and N.R.G. were supported by ANTA1801 (Antarctic Science Platform). The Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) is supported by NASA grant numbers NNX13AM16G and NNX13AK27G. T.v.P. was supported as Research Fellow by the University of Leicester and NERC NE/R018235/1. J.S.L. was supported by ECORD and the Research Council of Norway. We also thank the numerous scientists who collected site survey data and developed the proposals and hypotheses that led to IODP Expedition 374. Expedition 374 was conducted under the Antarctic Conservative Act permit number ACA 2018-027 (permit holder: B. Clement, JRSO, IODP, TAMU, College Station, Texas, USA 77845). 86

Funders	Funder number
University of Leicester
Norges Forskningsråd
ECORD
International Ocean Discovery Program
Marsden Fund	MFP-VUW2207, ANTA1801
National Aeronautics and Space Administration	NNX13AM16G, NNX13AK27G
Japan Society for the Promotion of Science	17H01166, 17H06318, 20H00626
National Science Foundation	2000997, 1450528
Ministry for Business Innovation and Employment	RTUV1705
Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft	R03039/4
Natural Environment Research Council	NE/R018235/1
Royal Society Te Apārangi	VUW-1501

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This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 13 Climate Action

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10.1038/s41561-025-01840-y

Cite this

Patterson, M. O., Rosenberg, C., Seki, O., Yamamoto, M., Romero, O. E., Nelissen, M., Sangiorgi, F., Golledge, N. R., Grant, G., Arnuk, W. D., Keisling, B., Naish, T., Levy, R., Meyers, S., Sullivan, N., Ash, J., Kulhanek, D., Romans, B. W., Varela Valenzuela, N., ... McKay, R. (2026). Spatially variable response of Antarctica’s ice sheets to orbital forcing during the Pliocene. Nature Geoscience, 19(2), 182-188. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-025-01840-y

@article{9f255ad291ea48c48ff39b599645db2c,

title = "Spatially variable response of Antarctica{\textquoteright}s ice sheets to orbital forcing during the Pliocene",

abstract = "Variations in Earth{\textquoteright}s orbit pace global ice-volume and sea-level changes, but the variability in the response for different sectors of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to orbitally forced climate change remains unclear. Here we present geological records of iceberg-rafted debris and other proxies from locations adjacent to the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) with comparisons to an existing East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) record over the time interval \textasciitilde{}3.3–2.3 million years ago. Iceberg calving events from the WAIS recorded in Ross Sea sediment cores show a linear response to orbital forcing at timescales corresponding to obliquity (\textasciitilde{}40,000 years) and precession (\textasciitilde{}23,000–19,000 years) modulated by eccentricity (\textasciitilde{}100,000 years). This contrasts with an existing record adjacent to the EAIS, which does not contain obliquity pacing. Combined with ice-sheet model sensitivity tests, the geological data show that the WAIS is highly dynamic and responsive to oceanic melt driven by changes in Southern Ocean circulation, together with atmospheric forcing through variations in local insolation. Conversely, the EAIS appears less responsive to oceanic forcing, despite being the dominant source of meltwater to the global ocean during the mid-Pliocene. Our results imply a substantial role for atmospheric warming on mid-Pliocene sea-level from both WAIS and EAIS.",

author = "Patterson, \{Molly O.\} and Christiana Rosenberg and Osamu Seki and Masanobu Yamamoto and Romero, \{Oscar E.\} and Mei Nelissen and Francesca Sangiorgi and Golledge, \{Nicholas R.\} and Georgia Grant and Arnuk, \{William D.\} and Benjamin Keisling and Timothy Naish and Richard Levy and Stephen Meyers and Nicholas Sullivan and Jeanine Ash and Denise Kulhanek and Romans, \{Brian W.\} and \{Varela Valenzuela\}, Natalia and Harold Jones and Francois Beny and Imogen Browne and Giuseppe Cortese and Sousa, \{Isobela M.C.\} and Dodd, \{Justin P.\} and Esper, \{Oliver M.\} and Jenny Gales and David Harwood and Saki Ishino and Sookwan Kim and Sunghan Kim and Laberg, \{Jan S.\} and Leckie, \{R. Mark\} and Juliane M{\"u}ller and Amelia Shevenell and Shiv Singh and Sugisaki, \{Saiko T.\} and \{van de Flierdt\}, Tina and \{van Peer\}, Tim and Wenshen Xiao and Zhifang Xiong and \{De Santis\}, Laura and Robert McKay",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited 2026.",

year = "2026",

month = feb,

doi = "10.1038/s41561-025-01840-y",

language = "English",

volume = "19",

pages = "182--188",

journal = "Nature Geoscience",

issn = "1752-0894",

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Patterson, MO, Rosenberg, C, Seki, O, Yamamoto, M, Romero, OE, Nelissen, M , Sangiorgi, F, Golledge, NR, Grant, G, Arnuk, WD, Keisling, B, Naish, T, Levy, R, Meyers, S, Sullivan, N, Ash, J, Kulhanek, D, Romans, BW, Varela Valenzuela, N, Jones, H, Beny, F, Browne, I, Cortese, G, Sousa, IMC, Dodd, JP, Esper, OM, Gales, J, Harwood, D, Ishino, S, Kim, S, Kim, S, Laberg, JS, Leckie, RM, Müller, J, Shevenell, A, Singh, S, Sugisaki, ST, van de Flierdt, T, van Peer, T, Xiao, W, Xiong, Z, De Santis, L & McKay, R 2026, 'Spatially variable response of Antarctica’s ice sheets to orbital forcing during the Pliocene', Nature Geoscience, vol. 19, no. 2, pp. 182-188. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-025-01840-y

TY - JOUR

T1 - Spatially variable response of Antarctica’s ice sheets to orbital forcing during the Pliocene

AU - Patterson, Molly O.

AU - Rosenberg, Christiana

AU - Seki, Osamu

AU - Yamamoto, Masanobu

AU - Romero, Oscar E.

AU - Nelissen, Mei

AU - Sangiorgi, Francesca

AU - Golledge, Nicholas R.

AU - Grant, Georgia

AU - Arnuk, William D.

AU - Keisling, Benjamin

AU - Naish, Timothy

AU - Levy, Richard

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AU - Sullivan, Nicholas

AU - Ash, Jeanine

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AU - Romans, Brian W.

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AU - Beny, Francois

AU - Browne, Imogen

AU - Cortese, Giuseppe

AU - Sousa, Isobela M.C.

AU - Dodd, Justin P.

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AU - Gales, Jenny

AU - Harwood, David

AU - Ishino, Saki

AU - Kim, Sookwan

AU - Kim, Sunghan

AU - Laberg, Jan S.

AU - Leckie, R. Mark

AU - Müller, Juliane

AU - Shevenell, Amelia

AU - Singh, Shiv

AU - Sugisaki, Saiko T.

AU - van de Flierdt, Tina

AU - van Peer, Tim

AU - Xiao, Wenshen

AU - Xiong, Zhifang

AU - De Santis, Laura

AU - McKay, Robert

PY - 2026/2

Y1 - 2026/2

N2 - Variations in Earth’s orbit pace global ice-volume and sea-level changes, but the variability in the response for different sectors of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to orbitally forced climate change remains unclear. Here we present geological records of iceberg-rafted debris and other proxies from locations adjacent to the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) with comparisons to an existing East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) record over the time interval ~3.3–2.3 million years ago. Iceberg calving events from the WAIS recorded in Ross Sea sediment cores show a linear response to orbital forcing at timescales corresponding to obliquity (~40,000 years) and precession (~23,000–19,000 years) modulated by eccentricity (~100,000 years). This contrasts with an existing record adjacent to the EAIS, which does not contain obliquity pacing. Combined with ice-sheet model sensitivity tests, the geological data show that the WAIS is highly dynamic and responsive to oceanic melt driven by changes in Southern Ocean circulation, together with atmospheric forcing through variations in local insolation. Conversely, the EAIS appears less responsive to oceanic forcing, despite being the dominant source of meltwater to the global ocean during the mid-Pliocene. Our results imply a substantial role for atmospheric warming on mid-Pliocene sea-level from both WAIS and EAIS.

AB - Variations in Earth’s orbit pace global ice-volume and sea-level changes, but the variability in the response for different sectors of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to orbitally forced climate change remains unclear. Here we present geological records of iceberg-rafted debris and other proxies from locations adjacent to the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) with comparisons to an existing East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) record over the time interval ~3.3–2.3 million years ago. Iceberg calving events from the WAIS recorded in Ross Sea sediment cores show a linear response to orbital forcing at timescales corresponding to obliquity (~40,000 years) and precession (~23,000–19,000 years) modulated by eccentricity (~100,000 years). This contrasts with an existing record adjacent to the EAIS, which does not contain obliquity pacing. Combined with ice-sheet model sensitivity tests, the geological data show that the WAIS is highly dynamic and responsive to oceanic melt driven by changes in Southern Ocean circulation, together with atmospheric forcing through variations in local insolation. Conversely, the EAIS appears less responsive to oceanic forcing, despite being the dominant source of meltwater to the global ocean during the mid-Pliocene. Our results imply a substantial role for atmospheric warming on mid-Pliocene sea-level from both WAIS and EAIS.

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/105026365627

U2 - 10.1038/s41561-025-01840-y

DO - 10.1038/s41561-025-01840-y

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VL - 19

SP - 182

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JO - Nature Geoscience

JF - Nature Geoscience

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ER -

Spatially variable response of Antarctica’s ice sheets to orbital forcing during the Pliocene

Abstract

Bibliographical note

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