Spatially-explicit assessment of carbon stocks in the landscape in the southern US under different scenarios of industrial wood pellet demand

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Abstract

Whether the use of industrial wood pellets for bioenergy is part of the problem of climate change or part of the solution to climate change has been heavily debated in the academic and political arena. The uncertainty around this topic is impeded by contradicting scientific assessments of carbon impacts of wood pellet use. Spatially explicit quantification of the potential carbon impacts of increased industrial wood pellet demand, including both indirect market and land-use change effects, is required to understand potential negative impacts on carbon stored in the landscape. Studies that meet these requirements are scarce. This study assesses the impact of increased wood pellet demand on carbon stocks in the landscape in the Southern US spatially explicitly and includes the effects of demand for other wood products and land-use types. The analysis is based on IPCC calculations and highly detailed survey-based biomass data for different forest types. We compare a trend of increased wood pellet demand between 2010 and 2030 with a stable trend in wood pellet demand after 2010, thereby quantifying the impact of increased wood pellet demand on carbon stocks in the landscape. This study shows that modest increases in wood pellets demand (from 0.5 Mt in 2010 to 12.1 Mt in 2030), compared to a scenario without increase in wood pellet demand (stable demand at 0.5 Mt), may result in carbon stock gains of 103-229 Mt in the landscape in the Southern US. These carbon stock increases occur due to a reduction in natural forest loss and an increase in pine plantation area compared to a stable-demand scenario. Projected carbon impacts of changes in wood pellet demand were smaller than carbon effects of trends in the timber market. We introduce a new methodological framework to include both indirect market and land-use change effects into carbon calculations in the landscape.

Original languageEnglish
Article number118148
Number of pages14
JournalJournal of Environmental Management
Volume342
Early online date15 May 2023
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 15 Sept 2023

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
The authors would like to thank drs. Maarten Zeylmans Van Emmichoven (Utrecht University) for his contribution. This work was carried out within the BE-Basic R&D Program, which was granted a FES subsidy from the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs, Agriculture and Innovation (EL & I).

Publisher Copyright:
© 2023

Keywords

  • Spatial analysis
  • Aboveground biomass
  • Bioenergy
  • Solid biomass
  • Pine plantation
  • Land-use change

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