Spatial adaptation pathways to reconcile future water and food security in the Indus River basin

Wouter Julius Smolenaars; Wout Jan Willem Sommerauer; Bregje van der Bolt; Muhammad Khalid Jamil; Sanita Dhaubanjar; Arthur Lutz; Walter Immerzeel; Fulco Ludwig; Hester Biemans

doi:10.1038/s43247-023-01070-3

Spatial adaptation pathways to reconcile future water and food security in the Indus River basin

Wouter Julius Smolenaars^*, Wout Jan Willem Sommerauer, Bregje van der Bolt, Muhammad Khalid Jamil, Sanita Dhaubanjar, Arthur Lutz, Walter Immerzeel, Fulco Ludwig, Hester Biemans

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

Abstract

Irrigated wheat production is critical for food security in the Indus basin. Changing climatic and socio-economic conditions are expected to increase wheat demand and reduce irrigation water availability. Therefore, adaptation of irrigated wheat production is essential to achieve the interlinked Sustainable Development Goals for both water and food security. Here, we developed a spatial adaptation pathways methodology that integrates water and food objectives under future climate change and population growth. The results show that strategic combinations between production intensification, laser land leveling, and targeted expansion of irrigated areas can ensure wheat production increases and irrigation water savings in the short term. However, no adaptation pathways can ensure long-term wheat production within the existing irrigation water budget under rapid population growth. Adaptation planning for the Sustainable Development Goals in the Indus basin must therefore address both climatic and population changes, and anticipate that current food production practices may be unsustainable.

Original language	English
Article number	410
Number of pages	12
Journal	Communications Earth and Environment
Volume	4
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-01070-3
Publication status	Published - 6 Nov 2023

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2023, The Author(s).

Funding

The work of all the authors is supported by the SustainIndus project funded by NWO Wotro (Project W 07.30318.002), the Interdisciplinary Research and Education Fund (INREF) of Wageningen University and Research, and Utrecht University. H.B. would like to acknowledge partial funding from Wageningen University and the Food Security and Valuing Water research program supported by the Dutch Ministry of Agriculture, Nature and Food Security. S.D. acknowledges partial support from the Sustainable Development Investment Portfolio (SDIP), the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT), the Government of Australia, the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC) and core funds from ICIMOD contributed by the governments of Afghanistan, Australia, Austria, Bangladesh, Bhutan, China, India, Myanmar, Nepal, Norway, Pakistan, Switzerland and the United Kingdom. The views and interpretations in this publication are those of the authors, and they are not necessarily attributable to their organizations.

Funders	Funder number
Dutch Ministry of Agriculture, Nature and Food Security
Interdisciplinary Research and Education Fund
Sustainable Development Investment Portfolio
Direktion für Entwicklung und Zusammenarbeit
Australian Government
International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development
Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Australian Government
Universiteit Utrecht
Nederlandse Organisatie voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek	W 07.30318.002
Wageningen University and Research

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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Cite this

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abstract = "Irrigated wheat production is critical for food security in the Indus basin. Changing climatic and socio-economic conditions are expected to increase wheat demand and reduce irrigation water availability. Therefore, adaptation of irrigated wheat production is essential to achieve the interlinked Sustainable Development Goals for both water and food security. Here, we developed a spatial adaptation pathways methodology that integrates water and food objectives under future climate change and population growth. The results show that strategic combinations between production intensification, laser land leveling, and targeted expansion of irrigated areas can ensure wheat production increases and irrigation water savings in the short term. However, no adaptation pathways can ensure long-term wheat production within the existing irrigation water budget under rapid population growth. Adaptation planning for the Sustainable Development Goals in the Indus basin must therefore address both climatic and population changes, and anticipate that current food production practices may be unsustainable.",

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AU - Jamil, Muhammad Khalid

AU - Dhaubanjar, Sanita

AU - Lutz, Arthur

AU - Immerzeel, Walter

AU - Ludwig, Fulco

AU - Biemans, Hester

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Spatial adaptation pathways to reconcile future water and food security in the Indus River basin

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Funding

UN SDGs

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