Abstract
Irrigated agriculture in South Asia depends on meltwater, monsoon rains and groundwater. Climate change alters the hydrology and causes shifts in the timing, composition and magnitude of these sources of water supply. Simultaneously, socio-economic growth increases water demand. Here we use a high-resolution cryosphere–hydrology–crop model forced with an ensemble of climate and socio-economic projections to assess how the sources of irrigation water supply may shift during the twenty-first century. We find increases in the importance of meltwater and groundwater for irrigated agriculture. An earlier melt peak increases meltwater withdrawal at the onset of the cropping season in May and June in the Indus, whereas increasing peak irrigation water demand during July and August aggravates non-renewable groundwater pumping in the Indus and Ganges despite runoff increases. Increasing inter-annual variability in rainfall runoff increases the need for meltwater and groundwater to complement rainfall runoff during future dry years.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 566-573 |
| Number of pages | 8 |
| Journal | Nature Climate Change |
| Volume | 12 |
| Issue number | 6 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - Jun 2022 |
Bibliographical note
Funding Information:Part of this work was carried out by the Himalayan Adaptation, Water and Resilience (HI-AWARE) consortium under the Collaborative Adaptation Research Initiative in Africa and Asia (CARIAA) with financial support from the UK government’s Department for International Development and the International Development Research Centre, Ottawa, Canada. Part of this work was performed for the project ‘Targeting a climate change hotspot: science to support the SDGs and sustainable water management in the transboundary Indus river basin (SustainIndus)’ and received funding from the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research under the WOTRO Joint Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) research programme (grant W 07.30318.002). The views expressed in this work are those of the creators and do not necessarily represent those of the UK government’s Department for International Development, the International Development Research Centre, Canada, or its board of governors and are not necessarily attributable to their organizations.
Funding Information:
Part of this work was carried out by the Himalayan Adaptation, Water and Resilience (HI-AWARE) consortium under the Collaborative Adaptation Research Initiative in Africa and Asia (CARIAA) with financial support from the UK government’s Department for International Development and the International Development Research Centre, Ottawa, Canada. Part of this work was performed for the project ‘Targeting a climate change hotspot: science to support the SDGs and sustainable water management in the transboundary Indus river basin (SustainIndus)’ and received funding from the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research under the WOTRO Joint Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) research programme (grant W 07.30318.002). The views expressed in this work are those of the creators and do not necessarily represent those of the UK government’s Department for International Development, the International Development Research Centre, Canada, or its board of governors and are not necessarily attributable to their organizations.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2022, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.
Funding
Part of this work was carried out by the Himalayan Adaptation, Water and Resilience (HI-AWARE) consortium under the Collaborative Adaptation Research Initiative in Africa and Asia (CARIAA) with financial support from the UK government’s Department for International Development and the International Development Research Centre, Ottawa, Canada. Part of this work was performed for the project ‘Targeting a climate change hotspot: science to support the SDGs and sustainable water management in the transboundary Indus river basin (SustainIndus)’ and received funding from the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research under the WOTRO Joint Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) research programme (grant W 07.30318.002). The views expressed in this work are those of the creators and do not necessarily represent those of the UK government’s Department for International Development, the International Development Research Centre, Canada, or its board of governors and are not necessarily attributable to their organizations. Part of this work was carried out by the Himalayan Adaptation, Water and Resilience (HI-AWARE) consortium under the Collaborative Adaptation Research Initiative in Africa and Asia (CARIAA) with financial support from the UK government’s Department for International Development and the International Development Research Centre, Ottawa, Canada. Part of this work was performed for the project ‘Targeting a climate change hotspot: science to support the SDGs and sustainable water management in the transboundary Indus river basin (SustainIndus)’ and received funding from the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research under the WOTRO Joint Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) research programme (grant W 07.30318.002). The views expressed in this work are those of the creators and do not necessarily represent those of the UK government’s Department for International Development, the International Development Research Centre, Canada, or its board of governors and are not necessarily attributable to their organizations.
