Short- and long-term variability of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets

Edward Hanna; Dániel Topál; Jason E. Box; Sammie Buzzard; Frazer D.W. Christie; Christine Hvidberg; Mathieu Morlighem; Laura De Santis; Alessandro Silvano; Florence Colleoni; Ingo Sasgen; Alison F. Banwell; Michiel R. van den Broeke; Robert DeConto; Jan De Rydt; Heiko Goelzer; Alexandra Gossart; G. Hilmar Gudmundsson; Katrin Lindbäck; Bertie Miles; Ruth Mottram; Frank Pattyn; Ronja Reese; Eric Rignot; Aakriti Srivastava; Sainan Sun; Justin Toller; Peter A. Tuckett; Lizz Ultee

doi:10.1038/s43017-023-00509-7

Short- and long-term variability of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets

Edward Hanna^*
, Dániel Topál
, Jason E. Box
, Sammie Buzzard
, Frazer D.W. Christie
, Christine Hvidberg
, Mathieu Morlighem
, Laura De Santis
, Alessandro Silvano
, Florence Colleoni
, Ingo Sasgen
, Alison F. Banwell
, Michiel R. van den Broeke
, Robert DeConto
, Jan De Rydt
, Heiko Goelzer
, Alexandra Gossart
, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson
, Katrin Lindbäck
, Bertie Miles

Ruth Mottram, Frank Pattyn, Ronja Reese, Eric Rignot, Aakriti Srivastava, Sainan Sun, Justin Toller, Peter A. Tuckett, Lizz Ultee

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Review article › peer-review

Abstract

The variability of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets occurs on various timescales and is important for projections of sea level rise; however, there are substantial uncertainties concerning future ice-sheet mass changes. In this Review, we explore the degree to which short-term fluctuations and extreme glaciological events reflect the ice sheets’ long-term evolution and response to ongoing climate change. Short-term (decadal or shorter) variations in atmospheric or oceanic conditions can trigger amplifying feedbacks that increase the sensitivity of ice sheets to climate change. For example, variability in ocean-induced and atmosphere-induced melting can trigger ice thinning, retreat and/or collapse of ice shelves, grounding-line retreat, and ice flow acceleration. The Antarctic Ice Sheet is especially prone to increased melting and ice sheet collapse from warm ocean currents, which could be accentuated with increased climate variability. In Greenland both high and low melt anomalies have been observed since 2012, highlighting the influence of increased interannual climate variability on extreme glaciological events and ice sheet evolution. Failing to adequately account for such variability can result in biased projections of multi-decadal ice mass loss. Therefore, future research should aim to improve climate and ocean observations and models, and develop sophisticated ice sheet models that are directly constrained by observational records and can capture ice dynamical changes across various timescales.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	193-210
Number of pages	18
Journal	Nature Reviews Earth and Environment
Volume	5
Issue number	3
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-023-00509-7
Publication status	Published - Mar 2024

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© Springer Nature Limited 2024.

Funding

The authors are grateful to the World Climate Research Programme\u2019s Climate & Cryosphere core project, the International Arctic Science Committee and SCAR for co-sponsoring an ISMASS workshop that led to this collaboration. E.H. and A. Silvano acknowledge funding from NERC (NE/W005875/1, NE/Y000129/1 and NE/V014285/1). F.D.W.C. acknowledges funding from the Prince Albert II of Monaco Foundation. R.R. was\u00A0supported by\u00A0the TiPACCs project, which receives funding from the European Union\u2019s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement number 820575. J.D.R. was supported by a UKRI\u00A0Future Leaders Fellowship (grant agreement no\u00A0MR/W011816/1).\u00A0H.G. received funding from the EU\u2019s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme under grant agreement number 869304, PROTECT and the Research Council of Norway under projects 295046 and 324639. L.D.S. acknowledges funding from the PNRA19_00022 project. F.C. acknowledges funding from the PNRA18_00002 project and from the SCAR INSTANT Programme. R.M. received funding from the EU\u2019s Horizon Europe Programme under grant agreement number 101060452, OCEAN:ICE. I.S. acknowledges funding by the Helmholtz Climate Initiative REKLIM (Regional Climate Change), a joint research project of the Helmholtz Association of German Research Centres (HGF). A.G. acknowledges financial support from the New Zealand Ministry for Business Innovation and Employment (grant number ANTA1801; Antarctic Science Platform).\u00A0The authors\u00A0thank S. Hanna for the help with figure preparation. The authors are grateful to the World Climate Research Programme\u2019s Climate & Cryosphere core project, the International Arctic Science Committee and SCAR for co-sponsoring an ISMASS workshop that led to this collaboration. E.H. and A. Silvano acknowledge funding from NERC (NE/W005875/1, NE/Y000129/1 and NE/V014285/1). F.D.W.C. acknowledges funding from the Prince Albert II of Monaco Foundation. R.R. was supported by the TiPACCs project, which receives funding from the European Union\u2019s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement number 820575. J.D.R. was supported by a UKRI Future Leaders Fellowship (grant agreement no MR/W011816/1). H.G. received funding from the EU\u2019s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme under grant agreement number 869304, PROTECT and the Research Council of Norway under projects 295046 and 324639. L.D.S. acknowledges funding from the PNRA19_00022 project. F.C. acknowledges funding from the PNRA18_00002 project and from the SCAR INSTANT Programme. R.M. received funding from the EU\u2019s Horizon Europe Programme under grant agreement number 101060452, OCEAN:ICE. I.S. acknowledges funding by the Helmholtz Climate Initiative REKLIM (Regional Climate Change), a joint research project of the Helmholtz Association of German Research Centres (HGF). A.G. acknowledges financial support from the New Zealand Ministry for Business Innovation and Employment (grant number ANTA1801; Antarctic Science Platform). The authors thank S. Hanna for the help with figure preparation.

Funders	Funder number
Prince Albert II of Monaco Foundation
Helmholtz Association
Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft
International Arctic Science Committee
Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research
Helmholtz Climate Initiative REKLIM
Horizon 2020 Framework Programme	820575
UK Research and Innovation	MR/W011816/1
Horizon 2020	869304
New Zealand Ministry for Business Innovation and Employment	ANTA1801
Natural Environment Research Council	NE/V014285/1, NE/W005875/1, NE/Y000129/1
HORIZON EUROPE Framework Programme	101060452
Norges Forskningsråd	PNRA18_00002, 324639, PNRA19_00022, 295046

UN SDGs

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10.1038/s43017-023-00509-7

Hanna_et_al-2024-Nature_Reviews_Earth_&_EnvironmentFinal published version, 4.71 MBLicence: Taverne

Cite this

Hanna, E., Topál, D., Box, J. E., Buzzard, S., Christie, F. D. W., Hvidberg, C., Morlighem, M., De Santis, L., Silvano, A., Colleoni, F., Sasgen, I., Banwell, A. F., van den Broeke, M. R., DeConto, R., De Rydt, J., Goelzer, H., Gossart, A., Gudmundsson, G. H., Lindbäck, K., ... Ultee, L. (2024). Short- and long-term variability of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets. Nature Reviews Earth and Environment, 5(3), 193-210. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-023-00509-7

@article{b05ac7b80df94e06ab6d3693f25922dd,

title = "Short- and long-term variability of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets",

abstract = "The variability of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets occurs on various timescales and is important for projections of sea level rise; however, there are substantial uncertainties concerning future ice-sheet mass changes. In this Review, we explore the degree to which short-term fluctuations and extreme glaciological events reflect the ice sheets{\textquoteright} long-term evolution and response to ongoing climate change. Short-term (decadal or shorter) variations in atmospheric or oceanic conditions can trigger amplifying feedbacks that increase the sensitivity of ice sheets to climate change. For example, variability in ocean-induced and atmosphere-induced melting can trigger ice thinning, retreat and/or collapse of ice shelves, grounding-line retreat, and ice flow acceleration. The Antarctic Ice Sheet is especially prone to increased melting and ice sheet collapse from warm ocean currents, which could be accentuated with increased climate variability. In Greenland both high and low melt anomalies have been observed since 2012, highlighting the influence of increased interannual climate variability on extreme glaciological events and ice sheet evolution. Failing to adequately account for such variability can result in biased projections of multi-decadal ice mass loss. Therefore, future research should aim to improve climate and ocean observations and models, and develop sophisticated ice sheet models that are directly constrained by observational records and can capture ice dynamical changes across various timescales.",

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year = "2024",

month = mar,

doi = "10.1038/s43017-023-00509-7",

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volume = "5",

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Hanna, E, Topál, D, Box, JE, Buzzard, S, Christie, FDW, Hvidberg, C, Morlighem, M, De Santis, L, Silvano, A, Colleoni, F, Sasgen, I, Banwell, AF, van den Broeke, MR, DeConto, R, De Rydt, J, Goelzer, H, Gossart, A, Gudmundsson, GH, Lindbäck, K, Miles, B, Mottram, R, Pattyn, F, Reese, R, Rignot, E, Srivastava, A, Sun, S, Toller, J, Tuckett, PA & Ultee, L 2024, 'Short- and long-term variability of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets', Nature Reviews Earth and Environment, vol. 5, no. 3, pp. 193-210. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-023-00509-7

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N2 - The variability of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets occurs on various timescales and is important for projections of sea level rise; however, there are substantial uncertainties concerning future ice-sheet mass changes. In this Review, we explore the degree to which short-term fluctuations and extreme glaciological events reflect the ice sheets’ long-term evolution and response to ongoing climate change. Short-term (decadal or shorter) variations in atmospheric or oceanic conditions can trigger amplifying feedbacks that increase the sensitivity of ice sheets to climate change. For example, variability in ocean-induced and atmosphere-induced melting can trigger ice thinning, retreat and/or collapse of ice shelves, grounding-line retreat, and ice flow acceleration. The Antarctic Ice Sheet is especially prone to increased melting and ice sheet collapse from warm ocean currents, which could be accentuated with increased climate variability. In Greenland both high and low melt anomalies have been observed since 2012, highlighting the influence of increased interannual climate variability on extreme glaciological events and ice sheet evolution. Failing to adequately account for such variability can result in biased projections of multi-decadal ice mass loss. Therefore, future research should aim to improve climate and ocean observations and models, and develop sophisticated ice sheet models that are directly constrained by observational records and can capture ice dynamical changes across various timescales.

AB - The variability of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets occurs on various timescales and is important for projections of sea level rise; however, there are substantial uncertainties concerning future ice-sheet mass changes. In this Review, we explore the degree to which short-term fluctuations and extreme glaciological events reflect the ice sheets’ long-term evolution and response to ongoing climate change. Short-term (decadal or shorter) variations in atmospheric or oceanic conditions can trigger amplifying feedbacks that increase the sensitivity of ice sheets to climate change. For example, variability in ocean-induced and atmosphere-induced melting can trigger ice thinning, retreat and/or collapse of ice shelves, grounding-line retreat, and ice flow acceleration. The Antarctic Ice Sheet is especially prone to increased melting and ice sheet collapse from warm ocean currents, which could be accentuated with increased climate variability. In Greenland both high and low melt anomalies have been observed since 2012, highlighting the influence of increased interannual climate variability on extreme glaciological events and ice sheet evolution. Failing to adequately account for such variability can result in biased projections of multi-decadal ice mass loss. Therefore, future research should aim to improve climate and ocean observations and models, and develop sophisticated ice sheet models that are directly constrained by observational records and can capture ice dynamical changes across various timescales.

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85184402942

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DO - 10.1038/s43017-023-00509-7

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AN - SCOPUS:85184402942

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VL - 5

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JO - Nature Reviews Earth and Environment

JF - Nature Reviews Earth and Environment

IS - 3

ER -

Short- and long-term variability of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Funding

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