TY - JOUR
T1 - Self-amplified Amazon forest loss due to vegetation-atmosphere feedbacks
AU - Zemp, Delphine Clara
AU - Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich
AU - Barbosa, Henrique M. J.
AU - Hirota, Marina
AU - Montade, Vincent
AU - Sampaio, Gilvan
AU - Staal, Arie
AU - Wang-Erlandsson, Lan
AU - Rammig, Anja
PY - 2017
Y1 - 2017
N2 - Reduced rainfall increases the risk of forest dieback, while in return forest loss might intensify regional droughts. The consequences of this vegetation–atmosphere feedback for the stability of the Amazon forest are still unclear. Here we show that the risk of self-amplified Amazon forest loss increases nonlinearly with dry-season intensification. We apply a novel complex-network approach, in which Amazon forest patches are linked by observation-based atmospheric water fluxes. Our results suggest that the risk of self-amplified forest loss is reduced with increasing heterogeneity in the response of forest patches to reduced rainfall. Under dry-season Amazonian rainfall reductions, comparable to Last Glacial Maximum conditions, additional forest loss due to self-amplified effects occurs in 10–13% of the Amazon basin. Although our findings do not indicate that the projected rainfall changes for the end of the twenty-first century will lead to complete Amazon dieback, they suggest that frequent extreme drought events have the potential to destabilize large parts of the Amazon forest.
AB - Reduced rainfall increases the risk of forest dieback, while in return forest loss might intensify regional droughts. The consequences of this vegetation–atmosphere feedback for the stability of the Amazon forest are still unclear. Here we show that the risk of self-amplified Amazon forest loss increases nonlinearly with dry-season intensification. We apply a novel complex-network approach, in which Amazon forest patches are linked by observation-based atmospheric water fluxes. Our results suggest that the risk of self-amplified forest loss is reduced with increasing heterogeneity in the response of forest patches to reduced rainfall. Under dry-season Amazonian rainfall reductions, comparable to Last Glacial Maximum conditions, additional forest loss due to self-amplified effects occurs in 10–13% of the Amazon basin. Although our findings do not indicate that the projected rainfall changes for the end of the twenty-first century will lead to complete Amazon dieback, they suggest that frequent extreme drought events have the potential to destabilize large parts of the Amazon forest.
KW - Biogeography
KW - climate-change ecology
KW - palaeoclimate
KW - tropical ecology
UR - https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms14681
U2 - 10.1038/ncomms14681
DO - 10.1038/ncomms14681
M3 - Article
SN - 2041-1723
VL - 8
JO - Nature Communications
JF - Nature Communications
M1 - 14681
ER -