Segmentation of the Main Himalayan Thrust Illuminated by Bayesian Inference of Interseismic Coupling

L. Dal Zilio; R. Jolivet; Y. van Dinther

doi:10.1029/2019GL086424

Segmentation of the Main Himalayan Thrust Illuminated by Bayesian Inference of Interseismic Coupling

L. Dal Zilio^*
, R. Jolivet
, Y. van Dinther

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

Abstract

We use a recent compilation of geodetic data of surface displacements in a fully Bayesian approach to derive a probabilistic estimate of interseismic coupling along the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT). Our probabilistic estimate of interseismic coupling highlights four large, highly coupled patches separated by three potential barriers of low coupling. Locked patches overlap with estimated rupture areas of historical large earthquakes over the past centuries. The coincident spatial variability in coupling, seismicity, and prominent active topography suggests a structural segmentation of the MHT imposed by inherited tectonic structures from the India‐Eurasia collision. This correlation implies that inherited tectonic structures may affect how stress builds up along the MHT, thereby influencing the location and size of large Himalayan earthquakes and the growth of the mountain range.

Original language	English
Article number	e2019GL086424
Number of pages	10
Journal	Geophysical Research Letters
Volume	47
Issue number	4
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086424
Publication status	Published - 28 Feb 2020

Bibliographical note

Export Date: 16 April 2020

Funding

Work for this article has received funding from the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme (Grant Agreement: 758210?Geo4D). L.?D.?Z. was supported by the SNSF 2-77090-14 project Swiss-AlpArray SINERGIA and the Cecil and Sally Drinkward Postdoctoral Scholar at Caltech. We thank V.?L. Stevens, J.-P. Avouac, G. Het?ny, M. Simons, L. Bollinger, C. Pranger, A. Gualandi, K. Wang, and S. Michel for constructive comments and discussions. We are grateful to G. Het?ny for providing us with GMT scripts to plot Figure and the Arc-Parallel Topography Anomalies (Het?nyi et al.,). We thank the Editor and two anonymous reviewers for providing insightful comments that helped to improve the quality of this paper. Data related to this paper can be downloaded from the following link: https://doi.org/10.22002/d1.1317

Keywords

nterseismic coupling
Main Himalayan Thrust
Himalaya
earthquakes
megathrust segmentation
seismic/aseismic slip

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2019GL086424Final published version, 24.4 MBLicence: Taverne

Cite this

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title = "Segmentation of the Main Himalayan Thrust Illuminated by Bayesian Inference of Interseismic Coupling",

abstract = "We use a recent compilation of geodetic data of surface displacements in a fully Bayesian approach to derive a probabilistic estimate of interseismic coupling along the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT). Our probabilistic estimate of interseismic coupling highlights four large, highly coupled patches separated by three potential barriers of low coupling. Locked patches overlap with estimated rupture areas of historical large earthquakes over the past centuries. The coincident spatial variability in coupling, seismicity, and prominent active topography suggests a structural segmentation of the MHT imposed by inherited tectonic structures from the India‐Eurasia collision. This correlation implies that inherited tectonic structures may affect how stress builds up along the MHT, thereby influencing the location and size of large Himalayan earthquakes and the growth of the mountain range.",

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AU - Dal Zilio, L.

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N2 - We use a recent compilation of geodetic data of surface displacements in a fully Bayesian approach to derive a probabilistic estimate of interseismic coupling along the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT). Our probabilistic estimate of interseismic coupling highlights four large, highly coupled patches separated by three potential barriers of low coupling. Locked patches overlap with estimated rupture areas of historical large earthquakes over the past centuries. The coincident spatial variability in coupling, seismicity, and prominent active topography suggests a structural segmentation of the MHT imposed by inherited tectonic structures from the India‐Eurasia collision. This correlation implies that inherited tectonic structures may affect how stress builds up along the MHT, thereby influencing the location and size of large Himalayan earthquakes and the growth of the mountain range.

AB - We use a recent compilation of geodetic data of surface displacements in a fully Bayesian approach to derive a probabilistic estimate of interseismic coupling along the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT). Our probabilistic estimate of interseismic coupling highlights four large, highly coupled patches separated by three potential barriers of low coupling. Locked patches overlap with estimated rupture areas of historical large earthquakes over the past centuries. The coincident spatial variability in coupling, seismicity, and prominent active topography suggests a structural segmentation of the MHT imposed by inherited tectonic structures from the India‐Eurasia collision. This correlation implies that inherited tectonic structures may affect how stress builds up along the MHT, thereby influencing the location and size of large Himalayan earthquakes and the growth of the mountain range.

KW - nterseismic coupling

KW - Main Himalayan Thrust

KW - Himalaya

KW - earthquakes

KW - megathrust segmentation

KW - seismic/aseismic slip

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DO - 10.1029/2019GL086424

M3 - Article

SN - 0094-8276

VL - 47

JO - Geophysical Research Letters

JF - Geophysical Research Letters

IS - 4

M1 - e2019GL086424

ER -

Segmentation of the Main Himalayan Thrust Illuminated by Bayesian Inference of Interseismic Coupling

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Funding

Keywords

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