Scheduling Electric Vehicle Fleets as a Virtual Battery under Uncertainty using Quantile Forecasts

Nico Brinkel, Jing Hu, Lennard Visser, Wilfried Van Sark, Tarek Alskaif

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionAcademicpeer-review

Abstract

Electric vehicles have significant potential to reduce their charging costs by participating in electricity markets through electric vehicle smart charging. However, one of the main barriers to electric vehicle participation in an electricity market is the high uncertainty in their availability at the market gate closure time. Not accounting for this uncertainty when making market bids could result in high imbalance costs. This study proposes a method to determine the optimal bidding strategy for a fleet of electric vehicles under uncertainty using a scenario-based stochastic optimization algorithm. This model considers both the uncertainty in electric vehicle availability and uncertainty in imbalance prices in the electricity market, as well as the risk-aversiveness of aggregators to high charging costs using the conditional value-at-risk. It proposes to model the electric vehicle fleet as a virtual battery, and to use a set of quantile forecasts of the virtual battery parameters to account for the uncertainty in electric vehicle availability. The effectiveness of the proposed model is evaluated by testing it on an actual case study fleet. The results indicate that it is crucial to consider both the expected charging costs and the conditional value-at-risk when determining market bids for an electric vehicle fleet under uncertainty.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publication2022 IEEE International Conference on Communications, Control, and Computing Technologies for Smart Grids, SmartGridComm 2022
PublisherInstitute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
Pages334-339
Number of pages6
ISBN (Electronic)9781665432542
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2022
Event2022 IEEE International Conference on Communications, Control, and Computing Technologies for Smart Grids, SmartGridComm 2022 - Singapore, Singapore
Duration: 25 Oct 202228 Oct 2022

Publication series

Name2022 IEEE International Conference on Communications, Control, and Computing Technologies for Smart Grids, SmartGridComm 2022

Conference

Conference2022 IEEE International Conference on Communications, Control, and Computing Technologies for Smart Grids, SmartGridComm 2022
Country/TerritorySingapore
CitySingapore
Period25/10/2228/10/22

Keywords

  • Conditional Value-at-Risk
  • Electric Vehicles
  • Quantile Forecasts
  • Stochastic Optimization
  • Virtual Battery

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