Scenario Development for Addressing Land Subsidence in the Netherlands: A Backcasting Approach Based on a Damage Risk Map, Target Futures, and Land and Water Intervention Measures

Land subsidence in delta regions can lead to various problems, including damage to infrastructure, increased flood risk, and salinization of freshwater resources, particularly when considering the impacts of accelerated climate change and sea level rise (SLR). Concerning rates of subsidence in the Netherlands, up to 10 mm/year, have been observed in susceptible urban areas. Even higher rates of subsidence, up to 30 mm/year, have been observed in susceptible rural areas. This study has developed a set of land and water management scenarios using a backcasting approach for addressing land subsidence in the Netherlands. These scenarios were developed based on a subsidence risk map, a set of water and land intervention measures, and a set of target future states established by both scientists and stakeholders within the Living on Soft Soils (NWA-LOSS) research programme, funded from the National Science Agenda in the Netherlands.
In this study, the target futures in high-risk areas aim to either limit or completely halt land subsidence, while also considering the need to minimize subsidence-related infrastructure damage and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions across susceptible areas in the Netherlands, all within a sustainable vision.

Three water management scenarios, three land management scenarios, and four integrated water and land management scenarios were developed. All scenarios developed through the backcasting approach should be evaluated and assessed using multiple criteria to determine their feasibility, effectiveness, and suitability for implementation in each specific local case in the Netherlands.

The outcomes of this backcasting approach and the assessment process will inform stakeholders on efficiency of all proposed measures and scenarios, and help them choose the most functional and socially accepted measures to achieve the desired target futures. This will assist decision-makers in making well-informed choices and decisions for the sustainable management of land subsidence in the Netherlands.