River Ecomorphodynamic Models Exhibit Features of Nonlinear Dynamics and Chaos

I. Cunico; W. Bertoldi; F. Caponi; H. A. Dijkstra; A. Siviglia

doi:10.1029/2023GL107951

River Ecomorphodynamic Models Exhibit Features of Nonlinear Dynamics and Chaos

I. Cunico^*, W. Bertoldi, F. Caponi, H. A. Dijkstra, A. Siviglia

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

Abstract

Modeling the nonlinear interactions between flow, sediment, and vegetation is essential for improving our understanding and prediction of river system dynamics. Using simple numerical models, we simulate the key flow-sediment-vegetation interaction where the disturbance is intrinsically generated by the presence of vegetation. In this case, biomass growth modifies the flow field, induces bed scour, and thus potentially causes vegetation uprooting when erosion exceeds root depth. Our results show that this nonlinear feedback produces deterministic chaos under a wide range of conditions, with complex aperiodic dynamics generated by a period-doubling route to chaos. Moreover, our results suggest relatively small values of Lyapunov time, spanning 2–4 growth-flood cycles, which significantly restrict the predictability of riverbed evolution. Although further spatial and temporal processes may add complexity to the system, these results call for the use of ensemble methods and associated uncertainty estimates in ecomorphodynamic models.

Original language	English
Article number	e2023GL107951
Journal	Geophysical Research Letters
Volume	51
Issue number	11
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL107951
Publication status	Published - 16 Jun 2024

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2024. The Authors.

Funding

The first, second and last authors acknowledge the Italian Ministry of Education, Universities and Research (MUR), in the framework of the project DICAM-EXC (Departments of Excellence 2023-2027, Grant L232/2016) and the European Union under NextGenerationEU, in the framework of the project Green Rivers, PRIN 2022 PNRR Prot. n. P20229WTX7. We thank Chris Paola and an anonymous referee for their valuable comments and Michele Castelluzzo for conducting preliminary analysis on the computation of the Lyapunov exponent.

Funders	Funder number
Italian Ministry of Education, Universities and Research (MUR)	DICAM-EXC, 2023-2027, L232/2016
European Union	P20229WTX7

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Geophysical Research Letters - 2024 - Cunico - River Ecomorphodynamic Models Exhibit Features of Nonlinear Dynamics andFinal published version, 1.64 MBLicence: CC BY

Cite this

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abstract = "Modeling the nonlinear interactions between flow, sediment, and vegetation is essential for improving our understanding and prediction of river system dynamics. Using simple numerical models, we simulate the key flow-sediment-vegetation interaction where the disturbance is intrinsically generated by the presence of vegetation. In this case, biomass growth modifies the flow field, induces bed scour, and thus potentially causes vegetation uprooting when erosion exceeds root depth. Our results show that this nonlinear feedback produces deterministic chaos under a wide range of conditions, with complex aperiodic dynamics generated by a period-doubling route to chaos. Moreover, our results suggest relatively small values of Lyapunov time, spanning 2–4 growth-flood cycles, which significantly restrict the predictability of riverbed evolution. Although further spatial and temporal processes may add complexity to the system, these results call for the use of ensemble methods and associated uncertainty estimates in ecomorphodynamic models.",

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AU - Cunico, I.

AU - Bertoldi, W.

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AU - Dijkstra, H. A.

AU - Siviglia, A.

PY - 2024/6/16

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River Ecomorphodynamic Models Exhibit Features of Nonlinear Dynamics and Chaos

Abstract

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