Risk blindness in local perspectives about the Alberta oil sands hinders Canada's decarbonization

Luis Virla; Dirk-Jan van de Ven; Jon Sampedro; Oscar van Vliet; Alistair Smith; Hector Pollitt; Jenny Lieu

doi:10.1016/j.eist.2021.10.008

Risk blindness in local perspectives about the Alberta oil sands hinders Canada's decarbonization

Luis Virla^*, Dirk-Jan van de Ven, Jon Sampedro, Oscar van Vliet, Alistair Smith, Hector Pollitt, Jenny Lieu

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

Abstract

Local perspectives can conflict with national and international climate targets. This study explores three stakeholder (community, provincial, and federal) perspectives on the Alberta oil sands as risks for a sustainability transition in Canada. In an ex-post analysis, we compared outputs from stakeholder consultations and energy-economy models. Our research shows that different local stakeholders groups disregarded some policy risks for the Alberta oil sands and Canadian energy transition. These stakeholders expected the sector to grow, despite increasing environmental penalties and external market pressures. The study revealed that blind-spots on risks, or “risk blindness”, increased as stakeholders became less certain about policy climate goals. We argue that “risk blindness” could be amplified by dominant institutional narratives that contradict scientific research and international climate policy. Strategies that integrate local narratives, considered as marginalized, provide perspectives beyond emission reductions and are essential for meeting climate targets while supporting a just transition.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	569-585
Number of pages	17
Journal	Environmental Innovation and Societal Transitions
Volume	40
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eist.2021.10.008
Publication status	Published - Sept 2021
Externally published	Yes

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2021

Funding

The authors thank Annela Anger-Kraavi and J.F. Mercure for valuable comments, and Ed Dearnley for a language check. This research was conducted within the framework of the TRANSrisk project that received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement No 642260 . The writing of the manuscript was also supported by the TIPPING.plus project that received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement No 884565.

Funders	Funder number
Horizon 2020	642260, 884565

Keywords

Energy transition
Ggreenhouse gas emissions
Oil sands
Risk and uncertainties
Risk blindness
Stranded assets

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.1016/j.eist.2021.10.008

Cite this

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title = "Risk blindness in local perspectives about the Alberta oil sands hinders Canada's decarbonization",

abstract = "Local perspectives can conflict with national and international climate targets. This study explores three stakeholder (community, provincial, and federal) perspectives on the Alberta oil sands as risks for a sustainability transition in Canada. In an ex-post analysis, we compared outputs from stakeholder consultations and energy-economy models. Our research shows that different local stakeholders groups disregarded some policy risks for the Alberta oil sands and Canadian energy transition. These stakeholders expected the sector to grow, despite increasing environmental penalties and external market pressures. The study revealed that blind-spots on risks, or “risk blindness”, increased as stakeholders became less certain about policy climate goals. We argue that “risk blindness” could be amplified by dominant institutional narratives that contradict scientific research and international climate policy. Strategies that integrate local narratives, considered as marginalized, provide perspectives beyond emission reductions and are essential for meeting climate targets while supporting a just transition.",

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AU - Smith, Alistair

AU - Pollitt, Hector

AU - Lieu, Jenny

PY - 2021/9

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N2 - Local perspectives can conflict with national and international climate targets. This study explores three stakeholder (community, provincial, and federal) perspectives on the Alberta oil sands as risks for a sustainability transition in Canada. In an ex-post analysis, we compared outputs from stakeholder consultations and energy-economy models. Our research shows that different local stakeholders groups disregarded some policy risks for the Alberta oil sands and Canadian energy transition. These stakeholders expected the sector to grow, despite increasing environmental penalties and external market pressures. The study revealed that blind-spots on risks, or “risk blindness”, increased as stakeholders became less certain about policy climate goals. We argue that “risk blindness” could be amplified by dominant institutional narratives that contradict scientific research and international climate policy. Strategies that integrate local narratives, considered as marginalized, provide perspectives beyond emission reductions and are essential for meeting climate targets while supporting a just transition.

AB - Local perspectives can conflict with national and international climate targets. This study explores three stakeholder (community, provincial, and federal) perspectives on the Alberta oil sands as risks for a sustainability transition in Canada. In an ex-post analysis, we compared outputs from stakeholder consultations and energy-economy models. Our research shows that different local stakeholders groups disregarded some policy risks for the Alberta oil sands and Canadian energy transition. These stakeholders expected the sector to grow, despite increasing environmental penalties and external market pressures. The study revealed that blind-spots on risks, or “risk blindness”, increased as stakeholders became less certain about policy climate goals. We argue that “risk blindness” could be amplified by dominant institutional narratives that contradict scientific research and international climate policy. Strategies that integrate local narratives, considered as marginalized, provide perspectives beyond emission reductions and are essential for meeting climate targets while supporting a just transition.

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Risk blindness in local perspectives about the Alberta oil sands hinders Canada's decarbonization

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Funding

Keywords

UN SDGs

Access to Document

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Cite this