Abstract
Aim: Climate change poses a challenge to the Azores' biodiversity, with consequences that remain unexplored. To shed light on the potential impacts of climate change, we have developed a large ensemble of species distribution models (SDMs) for species found in the coastal marine environments and examined their spatiotemporal turnover and stability. Location: The Azorean archipelago. Taxon: Coastal marine species (mammals, fish, turtles, seabirds, kelp forest and corals). Methods: SDMs were fitted a large ensemble comprising 10 machine learning algorithms and a fivefold cross-validation resampling procedure, thus yielding a maximum number of 50 models fitted per species. These models were then utilised for projecting species distribution under different future scenarios. The projected distributions of the species were employed to assess changes in the stability of their ranges throughout the entire modelled period (2030–2100) and in their community compositions by examining changes in alpha diversity and beta diversity over 10-year periods. Results: We show that under our model assumptions over 12% of the modelled units could lose suitable climate by the end of the century, with this number increasing up to 25% under a high carbon emissions scenario. Climate change refugia, which are areas of long-term species range stability, are expected to be mainly located in the coastal areas in the northernmost part of the archipelago. A substantial loss of suitable climate is anticipated for mammals and birds, which is likely to trigger a major loss of species on the islands of Santa Maria, São Miguel, Pico and Faial. For fish, the loss of suitable climates is less pronounced. However, climate change is expected to cause a major reshuffling of the pelagic fish assemblage, with important consequences for local fisheries on each island. Main Conclusions: Our models provide insights into how climate change may alter the distribution of Azorean marine coastal species, offering important guidance for conservation and management efforts in these important North Atlantic ecosystems.
Original language | English |
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Pages (from-to) | 2546-2555 |
Number of pages | 10 |
Journal | Journal of Biogeography |
Volume | 51 |
Issue number | 12 |
Early online date | 13 Sept 2024 |
DOIs | |
Publication status | Published - Dec 2024 |
Bibliographical note
Publisher Copyright:© 2024 The Author(s). Journal of Biogeography published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Funding
This research is funded through Blue Azores, an initiative involving the Regional Government of the Azores, The Oceano Azul Foundation and the Waitt Institute. All data were from open databases and are publicly available. No permissions were requested or used. The authors would like to extend their gratitude to all researchers who have collected occurrence datasets and uploaded them to open databases.
Funders | Funder number |
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Fundao para a Cincia e a Tecnologia | |
Regional Government of the Azores | |
Oceano Azul Foundation | |
Waitt Institute |
Keywords
- climate change refugia
- marine biodiversity
- North Atlantic
- species distributions models
- temporal turnover