Renewable energy perspectives for the North African electricity systems: a comparative analysis of model-based scenario studies

Prospects for the integration of power markets and the expansion of renewable energy
have recently triggered a number of publications dealing with transformation scenarios of
the North African electricity systems. This paper compares five studies using economic
electricity supply- and demand models to assess possible development pathways of the
North African power systems from today until 2030 and 2050. The analysis shows that
distinct modeling methodologies as well as different approaches to scenario design and
parameter assumptions can strongly influence the studies’ results, leading to very
heterogenous projections of North Africa’s power generation structures as well as the
patterns of electricity exchange with other regions, like Europe. Common findings of the
studies are that the surplus costs of capital-intensive renewable energy expansion in
North Africa can in most cases be offset by avoided fuel costs and avoided investments in
conventional power plants. All studies further agree that increased transnational cooperation,
notably in terms of market integration and cross-border power exchanges, can
bring about important economic advantages for the North African power sector. Renewable
energy expansion could also drive electricity exports to Europe, but in integrated
power market schemes, such exports only become viable with a very high share of
renewable energy exceeding 60% of the North African power demand.