Reducing sectoral hard-to-abate emissions to limit reliance on carbon dioxide removal

Oreane Y. Edelenbosch*, Andries F. Hof, Maarten van den Berg, Harmen Sytze de Boer, Hsing-Hsuan Chen, Vassilis Daioglou, Mark M. Dekker, Jonathan C. Doelman, Michel G. J. den Elzen, Mathijs Harmsen, Stratos Mikropoulos, Mariësse A. E. van Sluisveld, Elke Stehfest, Isabela S. Tagomori, Willem-Jan van Zeist, Detlef P. van Vuuren

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

Abstract

To reach net-zero greenhouse gas targets, carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies are required to compensate for residual emissions in the hard-to-abate sectors. However, dependencies on CDR technologies involve environmental, technical and social risks, particularly related to increased land requirements for afforestation and bioenergy crops. Here, using scenarios consistent with the 1.5 °C target, we show that demand and technological interventions can substantially lower emission levels in four hard-to-abate sectors (industry, agriculture, buildings and transport) and reduce reliance on the use of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage. Specifically, demand measures and technology-oriented measures could limit peak annual bioenergy with carbon capture and storage use to 0.5–2.2 GtCO2e per year and 1.9–7.0 GtCO2e per year, respectively, compared with 10.3 GtCO2e per year in the default 1.5 °C scenario. Dietary change plays a critical role in the demand measures given its large share in residual agricultural emissions.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)715-722
Number of pages8
JournalNature Climate Change
Volume14
Issue number7
Early online date7 Jun 2024
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Jul 2024

Keywords

  • Agriculture
  • energy supply and demand

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