Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment of Contracting COVID-19 Derived from Measured and Simulated Aerosol Particle Transmission in Aircraft Cabins

BACKGROUND: SARS-CoV-2 can be effectively transmitted between individuals located in close proximity to each other for extended durations. Aircraft provide such conditions. Although high attack rates during flights were reported, little was known about the risk levels of aerosol transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in aircraft cabins. OBJECTIVES: The major objective was to estimate the risk of contracting COVID-19 from transmission of aerosol particles in aircraft cabins. METHODS: In two single-aisle and one twin-aisle aircraft, dispersion of generated aerosol particles over a seven-row economy class cabin section was measured under cruise and taxi conditions and simulated with a computational fluid dynamic model under cruise conditions. Using the aerosol particle dispersion data, a quantitative microbial risk assessment was conducted for scenarios with an asymptomatic infectious person expelling aerosol particles by breathing and speaking. Effects of flight conditions were evaluated using generalized additive mixed models. RESULTS: Aerosol particle concentration decreased with increasing distance from the infectious person, and this decrease varied with direction. On a typical flight with an average shedder, estimated mean risk of contracting COVID-19 ranged from 1:3 × 10⁻³ to 9:0 × 10⁻². Risk increased to 7:7 × 10⁻² with a super shedder (<3% of cases) on a long flight. Risks increased with increasing flight duration: 2–23 cruise flights of typical duration and 2–10 flights of longer duration resulted in at least 1 case of COVID-19 due to onboard aerosol transmission by one average shedder, and in the case of one super shedder, at least 1 case in 1–3 flights of typical duration cruise and 1 flight of longer duration. DISCUSSION: Our findings indicate that the risk of contracting COVID-19 by aerosol transmission in an aircraft cabin is low, but it will not be zero. Testing before boarding may help reduce the chance of a (super)shedder boarding an aircraft and mask use further reduces aerosol transmission in the aircraft cabin.