Prospective Case-Control Study of Determinants for African Swine Fever Introduction in Commercial Pig Farms in Poland, Romania, and Lithuania

S Dhollander; E Cattaneo; J Cortiñas Abrahantes; A E Boklund; A Szczotka-Bochniarz; A D Mihalca; A Papanikolaou; L Mur; O M Balmoș; M Frant; A Gal-Cisoń; M Kwasnik; W Rozek; A Malakauskas; M Masiulis; J Turčinavičienė; A Rusinà; R Aminalragia-Giamini; T Chesnoiu; K Jazdzewski; J Rola; F Barbuceanu; J A Stegeman

doi:10.1155/tbed/5419764

Prospective Case-Control Study of Determinants for African Swine Fever Introduction in Commercial Pig Farms in Poland, Romania, and Lithuania

S Dhollander^*, E Cattaneo, J Cortiñas Abrahantes, A E Boklund, A Szczotka-Bochniarz, A D Mihalca, A Papanikolaou, L Mur, O M Balmoș, M Frant, A Gal-Cisoń, M Kwasnik, W Rozek, A Malakauskas, M Masiulis, J Turčinavičienė, A Rusinà, R Aminalragia-Giamini, T Chesnoiu, K JazdzewskiJ Rola, F Barbuceanu, J A Stegeman

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

Abstract

To investigate potential husbandry-related risk factors for African swine fever (ASF) incursion on commercial pig farms in Lithuania, Poland, and Romania, a prospective, matched case-control design was carried out from August 2021 to September 2023. For each participating commercial pig farm where an ASF outbreak occurred, two control farms were randomly selected and matched by herd size and county. On both case and control farms, questionnaires related to farm management and biosecurity measures were carried out, and stable flies ( Stomoxys calcitrans) and biting midges (Culicoides spp.) were collected to identify a possible association between the number of ASF virus (ASFV)- or ASFV DNA-positive vectors and presence of ASF on the farms. After testing for potential multicollinearity, a conditional logistic regression model was performed on one complete and three imputed datasets. To evaluate the best-fit model, the Akaike information criterion (AIC) method was used. This study generated more knowledge on risk and protective factors for ASF introduction on commercial pig farms related to (1) farm location (risk: closer distance to ASF outbreaks); (2) the wild boar (WB)-pig interface (risk: attractive crops for WB cultivated near the farms); (3) biosecurity (protective: carcasses collection by the rendering company without entering the holding and closed containers for carcass disposal, risk: sharing machinery with other farms or organizing unusual events on the farm); (4) insect-mediated mechanic transmission (protective: placement of insect screens on all doors and windows and risk: the number of biting midges collected on the farm). Manure from other holdings applied on the soil near the farm was in two of four models found significant and could be related to possible mechanical transmission by stable flies or to an increased infection pressure. Some of the identified husbandry-related risks and protective factors can have a direct practical value for the farmers.

Original language	English
Article number	5419764
Pages (from-to)	1-16
Number of pages	16
Journal	Transboundary and emerging diseases
Volume	2025
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1155/tbed/5419764
Publication status	Published - 2025

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
Copyright © 2025 S. Dhollander et al. Transboundary and Emerging Diseases published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Funding

The case\u2013control study in Lithuania, Poland, and Romania was funded by the European Food Safety Authority through three monopoly grants: GP/EFSA/ALPHA/2021/04, GP/EFSA/ALPHA/2021/05, and GP/EFSA/ALPHA/2021/06, respectively. We acknowledge all the collaborators from the State Food and Veterinary Service and the Vilnius University, Life Sciences Centre in Lithuania; the University of Agricultural Sciences and Veterinary Medicine in Cluj-Napoca and the National Sanitary Veterinary and Food Safety Authority in Romania; the National Veterinary Research Institute in Pulawy and the General Veterinary Inspectorate in Warsaw in Poland. We sincerely appreciate the time and efforts provided by Romanian, Lithuanian, and Polish farmers, the official veterinarians, laboratory workers, and the entomologists in visiting the farms and filling out the questionnaires. We would also like to thank all the colleagues at the European Food Safety Authority and the University of Copenhagen, who helped with the study design and analysis of the data. This study could not have been done without all your efforts. Thank you!! The case\u2013control study in Lithuania, Poland, and Romania was funded by the European Food Safety Authority through three monopoly grants: GP/EFSA/ALPHA/2021/04, GP/EFSA/ALPHA/2021/05, and GP/EFSA/ALPHA/2021/06, respectively.

Funders	Funder number
Vilnius University
Københavns Universitet
National Sanitary Veterinary and Food Safety Authority in Romania
Państwowy Instytut Weterynaryjny - Państwowy Instytut Badawczy
General Veterinary Inspectorate in Warsaw
State Food and Veterinary Service
Life Sciences Centre in Lithuania
University of Agricultural Sciences and Veterinary Medicine
European Food Safety Authority	GP/EFSA/ALPHA/2021/06, GP/EFSA/ALPHA/2021/05, GP/EFSA/ALPHA/2021/04

Keywords

African Swine Fever Virus/isolation & purification
African Swine Fever/epidemiology
Animal Husbandry
Animals
Case-Control Studies
Disease Outbreaks/veterinary
Farms
Insect Vectors/virology
Lithuania/epidemiology
Poland/epidemiology
Prospective Studies
Risk Factors
Romania/epidemiology
Swine

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Transboundary and Emerging Diseases - 2025 - Dhollander - Prospective Case Control Study of Determinants for African SwineFinal published version, 615 KBLicence: CC BY

Cite this

Dhollander, S., Cattaneo, E., Cortiñas Abrahantes, J., Boklund, A. E., Szczotka-Bochniarz, A., Mihalca, A. D., Papanikolaou, A., Mur, L., Balmoș, O. M., Frant, M., Gal-Cisoń, A., Kwasnik, M., Rozek, W., Malakauskas, A., Masiulis, M., Turčinavičienė, J., Rusinà, A., Aminalragia-Giamini, R., Chesnoiu, T., ... Stegeman, J. A. (2025). Prospective Case-Control Study of Determinants for African Swine Fever Introduction in Commercial Pig Farms in Poland, Romania, and Lithuania. Transboundary and emerging diseases, 2025(1), 1-16. Article 5419764. https://doi.org/10.1155/tbed/5419764

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abstract = "To investigate potential husbandry-related risk factors for African swine fever (ASF) incursion on commercial pig farms in Lithuania, Poland, and Romania, a prospective, matched case-control design was carried out from August 2021 to September 2023. For each participating commercial pig farm where an ASF outbreak occurred, two control farms were randomly selected and matched by herd size and county. On both case and control farms, questionnaires related to farm management and biosecurity measures were carried out, and stable flies ( Stomoxys calcitrans) and biting midges (Culicoides spp.) were collected to identify a possible association between the number of ASF virus (ASFV)- or ASFV DNA-positive vectors and presence of ASF on the farms. After testing for potential multicollinearity, a conditional logistic regression model was performed on one complete and three imputed datasets. To evaluate the best-fit model, the Akaike information criterion (AIC) method was used. This study generated more knowledge on risk and protective factors for ASF introduction on commercial pig farms related to (1) farm location (risk: closer distance to ASF outbreaks); (2) the wild boar (WB)-pig interface (risk: attractive crops for WB cultivated near the farms); (3) biosecurity (protective: carcasses collection by the rendering company without entering the holding and closed containers for carcass disposal, risk: sharing machinery with other farms or organizing unusual events on the farm); (4) insect-mediated mechanic transmission (protective: placement of insect screens on all doors and windows and risk: the number of biting midges collected on the farm). Manure from other holdings applied on the soil near the farm was in two of four models found significant and could be related to possible mechanical transmission by stable flies or to an increased infection pressure. Some of the identified husbandry-related risks and protective factors can have a direct practical value for the farmers. ",

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year = "2025",

doi = "10.1155/tbed/5419764",

language = "English",

volume = "2025",

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Dhollander, S, Cattaneo, E, Cortiñas Abrahantes, J, Boklund, AE, Szczotka-Bochniarz, A, Mihalca, AD, Papanikolaou, A, Mur, L, Balmoș, OM, Frant, M, Gal-Cisoń, A, Kwasnik, M, Rozek, W, Malakauskas, A, Masiulis, M, Turčinavičienė, J, Rusinà, A, Aminalragia-Giamini, R, Chesnoiu, T, Jazdzewski, K, Rola, J, Barbuceanu, F & Stegeman, JA 2025, 'Prospective Case-Control Study of Determinants for African Swine Fever Introduction in Commercial Pig Farms in Poland, Romania, and Lithuania', Transboundary and emerging diseases, vol. 2025, no. 1, 5419764, pp. 1-16. https://doi.org/10.1155/tbed/5419764

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T1 - Prospective Case-Control Study of Determinants for African Swine Fever Introduction in Commercial Pig Farms in Poland, Romania, and Lithuania

AU - Dhollander, S

AU - Cattaneo, E

AU - Cortiñas Abrahantes, J

AU - Boklund, A E

AU - Szczotka-Bochniarz, A

AU - Mihalca, A D

AU - Papanikolaou, A

AU - Mur, L

AU - Balmoș, O M

AU - Frant, M

AU - Gal-Cisoń, A

AU - Kwasnik, M

AU - Rozek, W

AU - Malakauskas, A

AU - Masiulis, M

AU - Turčinavičienė, J

AU - Rusinà, A

AU - Aminalragia-Giamini, R

AU - Chesnoiu, T

AU - Jazdzewski, K

AU - Rola, J

AU - Barbuceanu, F

AU - Stegeman, J A

PY - 2025

Y1 - 2025

N2 - To investigate potential husbandry-related risk factors for African swine fever (ASF) incursion on commercial pig farms in Lithuania, Poland, and Romania, a prospective, matched case-control design was carried out from August 2021 to September 2023. For each participating commercial pig farm where an ASF outbreak occurred, two control farms were randomly selected and matched by herd size and county. On both case and control farms, questionnaires related to farm management and biosecurity measures were carried out, and stable flies ( Stomoxys calcitrans) and biting midges (Culicoides spp.) were collected to identify a possible association between the number of ASF virus (ASFV)- or ASFV DNA-positive vectors and presence of ASF on the farms. After testing for potential multicollinearity, a conditional logistic regression model was performed on one complete and three imputed datasets. To evaluate the best-fit model, the Akaike information criterion (AIC) method was used. This study generated more knowledge on risk and protective factors for ASF introduction on commercial pig farms related to (1) farm location (risk: closer distance to ASF outbreaks); (2) the wild boar (WB)-pig interface (risk: attractive crops for WB cultivated near the farms); (3) biosecurity (protective: carcasses collection by the rendering company without entering the holding and closed containers for carcass disposal, risk: sharing machinery with other farms or organizing unusual events on the farm); (4) insect-mediated mechanic transmission (protective: placement of insect screens on all doors and windows and risk: the number of biting midges collected on the farm). Manure from other holdings applied on the soil near the farm was in two of four models found significant and could be related to possible mechanical transmission by stable flies or to an increased infection pressure. Some of the identified husbandry-related risks and protective factors can have a direct practical value for the farmers.

AB - To investigate potential husbandry-related risk factors for African swine fever (ASF) incursion on commercial pig farms in Lithuania, Poland, and Romania, a prospective, matched case-control design was carried out from August 2021 to September 2023. For each participating commercial pig farm where an ASF outbreak occurred, two control farms were randomly selected and matched by herd size and county. On both case and control farms, questionnaires related to farm management and biosecurity measures were carried out, and stable flies ( Stomoxys calcitrans) and biting midges (Culicoides spp.) were collected to identify a possible association between the number of ASF virus (ASFV)- or ASFV DNA-positive vectors and presence of ASF on the farms. After testing for potential multicollinearity, a conditional logistic regression model was performed on one complete and three imputed datasets. To evaluate the best-fit model, the Akaike information criterion (AIC) method was used. This study generated more knowledge on risk and protective factors for ASF introduction on commercial pig farms related to (1) farm location (risk: closer distance to ASF outbreaks); (2) the wild boar (WB)-pig interface (risk: attractive crops for WB cultivated near the farms); (3) biosecurity (protective: carcasses collection by the rendering company without entering the holding and closed containers for carcass disposal, risk: sharing machinery with other farms or organizing unusual events on the farm); (4) insect-mediated mechanic transmission (protective: placement of insect screens on all doors and windows and risk: the number of biting midges collected on the farm). Manure from other holdings applied on the soil near the farm was in two of four models found significant and could be related to possible mechanical transmission by stable flies or to an increased infection pressure. Some of the identified husbandry-related risks and protective factors can have a direct practical value for the farmers.

KW - African Swine Fever Virus/isolation & purification

KW - African Swine Fever/epidemiology

KW - Animal Husbandry

KW - Animals

KW - Case-Control Studies

KW - Disease Outbreaks/veterinary

KW - Farms

KW - Insect Vectors/virology

KW - Lithuania/epidemiology

KW - Poland/epidemiology

KW - Prospective Studies

KW - Risk Factors

KW - Romania/epidemiology

KW - Swine

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DO - 10.1155/tbed/5419764

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SN - 1865-1674

VL - 2025

SP - 1

EP - 16

JO - Transboundary and emerging diseases

JF - Transboundary and emerging diseases

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M1 - 5419764

ER -

Prospective Case-Control Study of Determinants for African Swine Fever Introduction in Commercial Pig Farms in Poland, Romania, and Lithuania

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Funding

Keywords

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