Projections of global delta land loss from sea‐level rise in the 21st century

Jaap H. Nienhuis; Roderik Wal

doi:10.1029/2021GL093368

Projections of global delta land loss from sea‐level rise in the 21st century

Sub General Marine & Atmospheric Research

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

Abstract

River deltas will likely experience significant land loss because of relative sea-level rise (RSLR), but predictions have not been tested against observations. Here, we use global data of RSLR and river sediment supply to build a model of delta response to RSLR for 6,402 deltas, representing 86% of global delta land. We validate this model against delta land area change observations from 1985–2015, and project future land area change for IPCC RSLR scenarios. For 2100, we find widely ranging delta scenarios, from +94 ± 125 (2 s.d.) km² yr⁻¹ for representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6 to −1,026 ± 281 km² yr⁻¹ for RCP8.5. River dams, subsidence, and sea-level rise have had a comparable influence on reduced delta growth over the past decades, but if we follow RCP8.5 to 2100, more than 85% of delta land loss will be caused by climate-change driven sea-level rise, resulting in a loss of ∼5% of global delta land.

Original language	English
Article number	e2021GL093368
Pages (from-to)	1-9
Number of pages	9
Journal	Geophysical Research Letters
Volume	48
Issue number	14
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL093368
Publication status	Published - 28 Jul 2021

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
We thank Sönke Dangendorf for sharing the RSLR reconstructions and Jorge Lorenzo‐Trueba for helpful conversations about sea‐level rise and deltas. We appreciate the constructive reviewing by Brad Murray and an anonymous reviewer, and editorial work from Kathleen Donohue. This research was supported by NSF award EAR‐1810855 and NWO award VI.Veni.192.123 to JHN and benefitted from the Water, Climate, Future Deltas program of Utrecht University.

Publisher Copyright:
© 2021. The Authors.

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 13 Climate Action

Keywords

climate change
land loss
morphology
river delta
sea level rise
sediment

Access to Document

10.1029/2021GL093368Licence: CC BY

2021GL093368Final published version, 1.78 MBLicence: CC BY

Cite this

@article{ad78a833a0a94d5b901d411ca92d25b6,

title = "Projections of global delta land loss from sea‐level rise in the 21st century",

abstract = "River deltas will likely experience significant land loss because of relative sea-level rise (RSLR), but predictions have not been tested against observations. Here, we use global data of RSLR and river sediment supply to build a model of delta response to RSLR for 6,402 deltas, representing 86\% of global delta land. We validate this model against delta land area change observations from 1985–2015, and project future land area change for IPCC RSLR scenarios. For 2100, we find widely ranging delta scenarios, from +94 ± 125 (2 s.d.) km2 yr−1 for representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6 to −1,026 ± 281 km2 yr−1 for RCP8.5. River dams, subsidence, and sea-level rise have had a comparable influence on reduced delta growth over the past decades, but if we follow RCP8.5 to 2100, more than 85\% of delta land loss will be caused by climate-change driven sea-level rise, resulting in a loss of ∼5\% of global delta land.",

keywords = "climate change, land loss, morphology, river delta, sea level rise, sediment",

author = "Nienhuis, \{Jaap H.\} and Roderik Wal",

note = "Funding Information: We thank S{\"o}nke Dangendorf for sharing the RSLR reconstructions and Jorge Lorenzo‐Trueba for helpful conversations about sea‐level rise and deltas. We appreciate the constructive reviewing by Brad Murray and an anonymous reviewer, and editorial work from Kathleen Donohue. This research was supported by NSF award EAR‐1810855 and NWO award VI.Veni.192.123 to JHN and benefitted from the Water, Climate, Future Deltas program of Utrecht University. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2021. The Authors.",

year = "2021",

month = jul,

day = "28",

doi = "10.1029/2021GL093368",

language = "English",

volume = "48",

pages = "1--9",

journal = "Geophysical Research Letters",

issn = "0094-8276",

publisher = "John Wiley and Sons Inc.",

number = "14",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Projections of global delta land loss from sea‐level rise in the 21st century

AU - Nienhuis, Jaap H.

AU - Wal, Roderik

N1 - Funding Information: We thank Sönke Dangendorf for sharing the RSLR reconstructions and Jorge Lorenzo‐Trueba for helpful conversations about sea‐level rise and deltas. We appreciate the constructive reviewing by Brad Murray and an anonymous reviewer, and editorial work from Kathleen Donohue. This research was supported by NSF award EAR‐1810855 and NWO award VI.Veni.192.123 to JHN and benefitted from the Water, Climate, Future Deltas program of Utrecht University. Publisher Copyright: © 2021. The Authors.

PY - 2021/7/28

Y1 - 2021/7/28

N2 - River deltas will likely experience significant land loss because of relative sea-level rise (RSLR), but predictions have not been tested against observations. Here, we use global data of RSLR and river sediment supply to build a model of delta response to RSLR for 6,402 deltas, representing 86% of global delta land. We validate this model against delta land area change observations from 1985–2015, and project future land area change for IPCC RSLR scenarios. For 2100, we find widely ranging delta scenarios, from +94 ± 125 (2 s.d.) km2 yr−1 for representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6 to −1,026 ± 281 km2 yr−1 for RCP8.5. River dams, subsidence, and sea-level rise have had a comparable influence on reduced delta growth over the past decades, but if we follow RCP8.5 to 2100, more than 85% of delta land loss will be caused by climate-change driven sea-level rise, resulting in a loss of ∼5% of global delta land.

AB - River deltas will likely experience significant land loss because of relative sea-level rise (RSLR), but predictions have not been tested against observations. Here, we use global data of RSLR and river sediment supply to build a model of delta response to RSLR for 6,402 deltas, representing 86% of global delta land. We validate this model against delta land area change observations from 1985–2015, and project future land area change for IPCC RSLR scenarios. For 2100, we find widely ranging delta scenarios, from +94 ± 125 (2 s.d.) km2 yr−1 for representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6 to −1,026 ± 281 km2 yr−1 for RCP8.5. River dams, subsidence, and sea-level rise have had a comparable influence on reduced delta growth over the past decades, but if we follow RCP8.5 to 2100, more than 85% of delta land loss will be caused by climate-change driven sea-level rise, resulting in a loss of ∼5% of global delta land.

KW - climate change

KW - land loss

KW - morphology

KW - river delta

KW - sea level rise

KW - sediment

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85111531501

U2 - 10.1029/2021GL093368

DO - 10.1029/2021GL093368

M3 - Article

SN - 0094-8276

VL - 48

SP - 1

EP - 9

JO - Geophysical Research Letters

JF - Geophysical Research Letters

IS - 14

M1 - e2021GL093368

ER -

Projections of global delta land loss from sea‐level rise in the 21st century

Abstract

Bibliographical note

UN SDGs

Keywords

Access to Document

Other files and links

Fingerprint

Cite this