Projecting long-term armed conflict risk: An underappreciated field of inquiry?

Sophie P. de Bruin; Jannis M. Hoch; Nina von Uexkull; Halvard Buhaug; Jolle Demmers; Hans Visser; Niko Wanders

doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2021.102423

Projecting long-term armed conflict risk: An underappreciated field of inquiry?

Sophie P. de Bruin^*
, Jannis M. Hoch
, Nina von Uexkull
, Halvard Buhaug
, Jolle Demmers
, Hans Visser
, Niko Wanders

^*Corresponding author for this work

Landscape functioning, Geocomputation and Hydrology

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

Abstract

Little research has been done on projecting long-term conflict risks. Such projections are currently neither included in the development of socioeconomic scenarios or climate change impact assessments nor part of global agenda-setting policy processes. In contrast, in other fields of inquiry, long-term projections and scenario studies are established and relevant for both strategical agenda-setting and applied policies. Although making projections of armed conflict risk in response to climate change is surrounded by uncertainty, there are good reasons to further develop such scenario-based projections. In this perspective article we discuss why quantifying implications of climate change for future armed conflict risk is inherently uncertain, but necessary for shaping sustainable future policy agendas. We argue that both quantitative and qualitative projections can have a purpose in future climate change impact assessments and put out the challenges this poses for future research.

Original language	English
Article number	102423
Pages (from-to)	1-5
Journal	Global Environmental Change
Volume	72
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2021.102423
Publication status	Published - Jan 2022

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
SdB and JH acknowledge funding from an Utrecht University Pathways to Sustainability Acceleration Grant. NW acknowledges funding from NWO 016.Veni.181.049. NvU acknowledges funding from Mistra Geopolitics Research Programme. HB acknowledges funding from the European Research Council via grant no. 648291. We would like to acknowledge the participants of a workshop in March 2020 to kick-start the project this article is a product of: Stijn van Weezel (Radboud University Nijmegen), Ruben Dahm (Deltares), Karin Meijer (Deltares), Joost Knoop (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency), Ben ten Brink (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency) and Rens van Beek (Utrecht University). We would also like to acknowledge the helpful and constructive review by two anonymous reviewers.

Funding Information:
SdB and JH acknowledge funding from an Utrecht University Pathways to Sustainability Acceleration Grant. NW acknowledges funding from NWO 016.Veni.181.049 . NvU acknowledges funding from Mistra Geopolitics Research Programme. HB acknowledges funding from the European Research Council via grant no. 648291. We would like to acknowledge the participants of a workshop in March 2020 to kick-start the project this article is a product of: Stijn van Weezel (Radboud University Nijmegen), Ruben Dahm (Deltares), Karin Meijer (Deltares), Joost Knoop (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency), Ben ten Brink (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency) and Rens van Beek (Utrecht University). We would also like to acknowledge the helpful and constructive review by two anonymous reviewers.

Publisher Copyright:
© 2021 The Author(s)

Funding

SdB and JH acknowledge funding from an Utrecht University Pathways to Sustainability Acceleration Grant. NW acknowledges funding from NWO 016.Veni.181.049. NvU acknowledges funding from Mistra Geopolitics Research Programme. HB acknowledges funding from the European Research Council via grant no. 648291. We would like to acknowledge the participants of a workshop in March 2020 to kick-start the project this article is a product of: Stijn van Weezel (Radboud University Nijmegen), Ruben Dahm (Deltares), Karin Meijer (Deltares), Joost Knoop (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency), Ben ten Brink (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency) and Rens van Beek (Utrecht University). We would also like to acknowledge the helpful and constructive review by two anonymous reviewers. SdB and JH acknowledge funding from an Utrecht University Pathways to Sustainability Acceleration Grant. NW acknowledges funding from NWO 016.Veni.181.049 . NvU acknowledges funding from Mistra Geopolitics Research Programme. HB acknowledges funding from the European Research Council via grant no. 648291. We would like to acknowledge the participants of a workshop in March 2020 to kick-start the project this article is a product of: Stijn van Weezel (Radboud University Nijmegen), Ruben Dahm (Deltares), Karin Meijer (Deltares), Joost Knoop (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency), Ben ten Brink (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency) and Rens van Beek (Utrecht University). We would also like to acknowledge the helpful and constructive review by two anonymous reviewers.

Keywords

Climate change
Future armed conflict
Scenario development
Science-policy interface

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

Access to Document

10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2021.102423Licence: CC BY

1-s2.0-S0959378021002028-mainFinal published version, 416 KBLicence: CC BY

Cite this

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title = "Projecting long-term armed conflict risk: An underappreciated field of inquiry?",

abstract = "Little research has been done on projecting long-term conflict risks. Such projections are currently neither included in the development of socioeconomic scenarios or climate change impact assessments nor part of global agenda-setting policy processes. In contrast, in other fields of inquiry, long-term projections and scenario studies are established and relevant for both strategical agenda-setting and applied policies. Although making projections of armed conflict risk in response to climate change is surrounded by uncertainty, there are good reasons to further develop such scenario-based projections. In this perspective article we discuss why quantifying implications of climate change for future armed conflict risk is inherently uncertain, but necessary for shaping sustainable future policy agendas. We argue that both quantitative and qualitative projections can have a purpose in future climate change impact assessments and put out the challenges this poses for future research.",

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note = "Funding Information: SdB and JH acknowledge funding from an Utrecht University Pathways to Sustainability Acceleration Grant. NW acknowledges funding from NWO 016.Veni.181.049. NvU acknowledges funding from Mistra Geopolitics Research Programme. HB acknowledges funding from the European Research Council via grant no. 648291. We would like to acknowledge the participants of a workshop in March 2020 to kick-start the project this article is a product of: Stijn van Weezel (Radboud University Nijmegen), Ruben Dahm (Deltares), Karin Meijer (Deltares), Joost Knoop (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency), Ben ten Brink (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency) and Rens van Beek (Utrecht University). We would also like to acknowledge the helpful and constructive review by two anonymous reviewers. Funding Information: SdB and JH acknowledge funding from an Utrecht University Pathways to Sustainability Acceleration Grant. NW acknowledges funding from NWO 016.Veni.181.049 . NvU acknowledges funding from Mistra Geopolitics Research Programme. HB acknowledges funding from the European Research Council via grant no. 648291. We would like to acknowledge the participants of a workshop in March 2020 to kick-start the project this article is a product of: Stijn van Weezel (Radboud University Nijmegen), Ruben Dahm (Deltares), Karin Meijer (Deltares), Joost Knoop (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency), Ben ten Brink (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency) and Rens van Beek (Utrecht University). We would also like to acknowledge the helpful and constructive review by two anonymous reviewers. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2021 The Author(s)",

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AU - Buhaug, Halvard

AU - Demmers, Jolle

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AU - Wanders, Niko

N1 - Funding Information: SdB and JH acknowledge funding from an Utrecht University Pathways to Sustainability Acceleration Grant. NW acknowledges funding from NWO 016.Veni.181.049. NvU acknowledges funding from Mistra Geopolitics Research Programme. HB acknowledges funding from the European Research Council via grant no. 648291. We would like to acknowledge the participants of a workshop in March 2020 to kick-start the project this article is a product of: Stijn van Weezel (Radboud University Nijmegen), Ruben Dahm (Deltares), Karin Meijer (Deltares), Joost Knoop (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency), Ben ten Brink (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency) and Rens van Beek (Utrecht University). We would also like to acknowledge the helpful and constructive review by two anonymous reviewers. Funding Information: SdB and JH acknowledge funding from an Utrecht University Pathways to Sustainability Acceleration Grant. NW acknowledges funding from NWO 016.Veni.181.049 . NvU acknowledges funding from Mistra Geopolitics Research Programme. HB acknowledges funding from the European Research Council via grant no. 648291. We would like to acknowledge the participants of a workshop in March 2020 to kick-start the project this article is a product of: Stijn van Weezel (Radboud University Nijmegen), Ruben Dahm (Deltares), Karin Meijer (Deltares), Joost Knoop (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency), Ben ten Brink (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency) and Rens van Beek (Utrecht University). We would also like to acknowledge the helpful and constructive review by two anonymous reviewers. Publisher Copyright: © 2021 The Author(s)

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ER -

Projecting long-term armed conflict risk: An underappreciated field of inquiry?

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Funding

Keywords

UN SDGs

Access to Document

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Cite this