Projecting conflict risk in transboundary river basins by 2050 following different ambition scenarios

Sophie Pieternel de Bruin; Susanne Schmeier; Rens van Beek; Marijn Gulpen

doi:10.1080/07900627.2023.2184650

Projecting conflict risk in transboundary river basins by 2050 following different ambition scenarios

Sophie Pieternel de Bruin^*, Susanne Schmeier, Rens van Beek, Marijn Gulpen

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

Abstract

This study presents three global scenario projections of conflict risk in transboundary river basins by combining scenario projection data on risks identified in the existing literature. Under a business-as-usual scenario, 920 million people are projected to live in very high to high conflict-risk basins by 2050. In the low ambition scenario, this number decreases to 724 million people, while in the high ambition scenario, it decreases to 536 million. Large basins with specifically high conflict risk are the Juba–Shibeli, Lake Turkana, Indus and Irrawaddy. These findings hope to inform water diplomacy, conflict prevention and mitigation support for basins at risk.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	7-32
Number of pages	26
Journal	International Journal of Water Resources Development
Volume	40
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1080/07900627.2023.2184650
Publication status	Published - 2024

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2023 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.

Keywords

ambition pathways
conflict risk
hydropower dams
institutional resilience
scenario projections
Transboundary river basins

Access to Document

10.1080/07900627.2023.2184650Licence: CC BY-NC-ND

Projecting conflict risk in transboundary river basins by 2050 following different ambition scenariosFinal published version, 5.23 MBLicence: CC BY-NC-ND

Cite this

@article{25a57e2fb0a546e9bce8de1aed08329e,

title = "Projecting conflict risk in transboundary river basins by 2050 following different ambition scenarios",

abstract = "This study presents three global scenario projections of conflict risk in transboundary river basins by combining scenario projection data on risks identified in the existing literature. Under a business-as-usual scenario, 920 million people are projected to live in very high to high conflict-risk basins by 2050. In the low ambition scenario, this number decreases to 724 million people, while in the high ambition scenario, it decreases to 536 million. Large basins with specifically high conflict risk are the Juba–Shibeli, Lake Turkana, Indus and Irrawaddy. These findings hope to inform water diplomacy, conflict prevention and mitigation support for basins at risk.",

keywords = "ambition pathways, conflict risk, hydropower dams, institutional resilience, scenario projections, Transboundary river basins",

author = "{de Bruin}, {Sophie Pieternel} and Susanne Schmeier and {van Beek}, Rens and Marijn Gulpen",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2023 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.",

year = "2024",

doi = "10.1080/07900627.2023.2184650",

language = "English",

volume = "40",

pages = "7--32",

journal = "International Journal of Water Resources Development",

issn = "0790-0627",

publisher = "Routledge",

number = "1",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Projecting conflict risk in transboundary river basins by 2050 following different ambition scenarios

AU - de Bruin, Sophie Pieternel

AU - Schmeier, Susanne

AU - van Beek, Rens

AU - Gulpen, Marijn

PY - 2024

Y1 - 2024

N2 - This study presents three global scenario projections of conflict risk in transboundary river basins by combining scenario projection data on risks identified in the existing literature. Under a business-as-usual scenario, 920 million people are projected to live in very high to high conflict-risk basins by 2050. In the low ambition scenario, this number decreases to 724 million people, while in the high ambition scenario, it decreases to 536 million. Large basins with specifically high conflict risk are the Juba–Shibeli, Lake Turkana, Indus and Irrawaddy. These findings hope to inform water diplomacy, conflict prevention and mitigation support for basins at risk.

AB - This study presents three global scenario projections of conflict risk in transboundary river basins by combining scenario projection data on risks identified in the existing literature. Under a business-as-usual scenario, 920 million people are projected to live in very high to high conflict-risk basins by 2050. In the low ambition scenario, this number decreases to 724 million people, while in the high ambition scenario, it decreases to 536 million. Large basins with specifically high conflict risk are the Juba–Shibeli, Lake Turkana, Indus and Irrawaddy. These findings hope to inform water diplomacy, conflict prevention and mitigation support for basins at risk.

KW - ambition pathways

KW - conflict risk

KW - hydropower dams

KW - institutional resilience

KW - scenario projections

KW - Transboundary river basins

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85150645813&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1080/07900627.2023.2184650

DO - 10.1080/07900627.2023.2184650

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:85150645813

SN - 0790-0627

VL - 40

SP - 7

EP - 32

JO - International Journal of Water Resources Development

JF - International Journal of Water Resources Development

IS - 1

ER -

Projecting conflict risk in transboundary river basins by 2050 following different ambition scenarios

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Keywords

Access to Document

Other files and links

Fingerprint

Cite this