Probabilistic Decision Support for Anticipatory Flood Actions in Alexandria City, Egypt

Adele Young; Biswa Bhattacharya; Emma Daniels; Chris Zevenbergen

Probabilistic Decision Support for Anticipatory Flood Actions in Alexandria City, Egypt

Adele Young
, Biswa Bhattacharya
, Emma Daniels
, Chris Zevenbergen

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution › Academic › peer-review

Abstract

This study explores flood anticipatory actions in data-scarce urban settings using a Bayesian Decision Framework, focusing on Alexandria, Egypt. Flood forecasts are generated using a coupled ensemble Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and a MIKE urban inundation model. Actions are guided by probability density functions of flood depth and loss functions. The framework enables decisions to be updated 12–72 hours before events by selecting the actions that minimise expected losses. Results show that such probabilistic approaches can improve decision-making under uncertainty compared to ensemble means, but consideration is needed for a suitable loss function, which represents the decision maker's preference.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	Book of Extended Abstracts of the 41st IAHR World Congress, 2025
Editors	Adrian Wing-Keung Law, Jenn Wei Er
Publisher	International Association for Hydro-Environment Engineering and Research
Pages	756-758
Number of pages	3
ISBN (Print)	9789083558950
Publication status	Published - 2025
Event	Book of Extended Abstracts of the 41st IAHR World Congress, 2025 - Singapore, Singapore Duration: 22 Jun 2025 → 27 Jun 2025

Publication series

Name	Proceedings of the IAHR World Congress
ISSN (Print)	2521-7119
ISSN (Electronic)	2521-716X

Conference

Conference	Book of Extended Abstracts of the 41st IAHR World Congress, 2025
Country/Territory	Singapore
City	Singapore
Period	22/06/25 → 27/06/25

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2025 IAHR.

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 11 Sustainable Cities and Communities

Keywords

Bayesian Decision Framework
Disaster Risk Reduction
Early Warning Systems
Urban Flood Forecasting

Access to Document

https://www.iahr.org/library/infor?pid=37418

Cite this

Young, A., Bhattacharya, B., Daniels, E., & Zevenbergen, C. (2025). Probabilistic Decision Support for Anticipatory Flood Actions in Alexandria City, Egypt. In A. Wing-Keung Law, & J. W. Er (Eds.), Book of Extended Abstracts of the 41st IAHR World Congress, 2025 (pp. 756-758). (Proceedings of the IAHR World Congress). International Association for Hydro-Environment Engineering and Research. https://www.iahr.org/library/infor?pid=37418

Young, Adele ; Bhattacharya, Biswa ; Daniels, Emma et al. / Probabilistic Decision Support for Anticipatory Flood Actions in Alexandria City, Egypt. Book of Extended Abstracts of the 41st IAHR World Congress, 2025. editor / Adrian Wing-Keung Law ; Jenn Wei Er. International Association for Hydro-Environment Engineering and Research, 2025. pp. 756-758 (Proceedings of the IAHR World Congress).

@inproceedings{8eca41fea5114640a8dbe17d27eb8ef1,

title = "Probabilistic Decision Support for Anticipatory Flood Actions in Alexandria City, Egypt",

abstract = "This study explores flood anticipatory actions in data-scarce urban settings using a Bayesian Decision Framework, focusing on Alexandria, Egypt. Flood forecasts are generated using a coupled ensemble Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and a MIKE urban inundation model. Actions are guided by probability density functions of flood depth and loss functions. The framework enables decisions to be updated 12–72 hours before events by selecting the actions that minimise expected losses. Results show that such probabilistic approaches can improve decision-making under uncertainty compared to ensemble means, but consideration is needed for a suitable loss function, which represents the decision maker's preference.",

keywords = "Bayesian Decision Framework, Disaster Risk Reduction, Early Warning Systems, Urban Flood Forecasting",

author = "Adele Young and Biswa Bhattacharya and Emma Daniels and Chris Zevenbergen",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2025 IAHR.; Book of Extended Abstracts of the 41st IAHR World Congress, 2025 ; Conference date: 22-06-2025 Through 27-06-2025",

year = "2025",

language = "English",

isbn = "9789083558950",

series = "Proceedings of the IAHR World Congress",

publisher = "International Association for Hydro-Environment Engineering and Research",

pages = "756--758",

editor = "\{Wing-Keung Law\}, Adrian and Er, \{Jenn Wei\}",

booktitle = "Book of Extended Abstracts of the 41st IAHR World Congress, 2025",

address = "Spain",

}

Young, A, Bhattacharya, B, Daniels, E & Zevenbergen, C 2025, Probabilistic Decision Support for Anticipatory Flood Actions in Alexandria City, Egypt. in A Wing-Keung Law & JW Er (eds), Book of Extended Abstracts of the 41st IAHR World Congress, 2025. Proceedings of the IAHR World Congress, International Association for Hydro-Environment Engineering and Research, pp. 756-758, Book of Extended Abstracts of the 41st IAHR World Congress, 2025, Singapore, Singapore, 22/06/25. <https://www.iahr.org/library/infor?pid=37418>

Probabilistic Decision Support for Anticipatory Flood Actions in Alexandria City, Egypt. / Young, Adele; Bhattacharya, Biswa; Daniels, Emma et al.
Book of Extended Abstracts of the 41st IAHR World Congress, 2025. ed. / Adrian Wing-Keung Law; Jenn Wei Er. International Association for Hydro-Environment Engineering and Research, 2025. p. 756-758 (Proceedings of the IAHR World Congress).

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution › Academic › peer-review

TY - GEN

T1 - Probabilistic Decision Support for Anticipatory Flood Actions in Alexandria City, Egypt

AU - Young, Adele

AU - Bhattacharya, Biswa

AU - Daniels, Emma

AU - Zevenbergen, Chris

PY - 2025

Y1 - 2025

N2 - This study explores flood anticipatory actions in data-scarce urban settings using a Bayesian Decision Framework, focusing on Alexandria, Egypt. Flood forecasts are generated using a coupled ensemble Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and a MIKE urban inundation model. Actions are guided by probability density functions of flood depth and loss functions. The framework enables decisions to be updated 12–72 hours before events by selecting the actions that minimise expected losses. Results show that such probabilistic approaches can improve decision-making under uncertainty compared to ensemble means, but consideration is needed for a suitable loss function, which represents the decision maker's preference.

AB - This study explores flood anticipatory actions in data-scarce urban settings using a Bayesian Decision Framework, focusing on Alexandria, Egypt. Flood forecasts are generated using a coupled ensemble Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and a MIKE urban inundation model. Actions are guided by probability density functions of flood depth and loss functions. The framework enables decisions to be updated 12–72 hours before events by selecting the actions that minimise expected losses. Results show that such probabilistic approaches can improve decision-making under uncertainty compared to ensemble means, but consideration is needed for a suitable loss function, which represents the decision maker's preference.

KW - Bayesian Decision Framework

KW - Disaster Risk Reduction

KW - Early Warning Systems

KW - Urban Flood Forecasting

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/105026281292

M3 - Conference contribution

AN - SCOPUS:105026281292

SN - 9789083558950

T3 - Proceedings of the IAHR World Congress

SP - 756

EP - 758

BT - Book of Extended Abstracts of the 41st IAHR World Congress, 2025

A2 - Wing-Keung Law, Adrian

A2 - Er, Jenn Wei

PB - International Association for Hydro-Environment Engineering and Research

T2 - Book of Extended Abstracts of the 41st IAHR World Congress, 2025

Y2 - 22 June 2025 through 27 June 2025

ER -

Young A, Bhattacharya B, Daniels E, Zevenbergen C. Probabilistic Decision Support for Anticipatory Flood Actions in Alexandria City, Egypt. In Wing-Keung Law A, Er JW, editors, Book of Extended Abstracts of the 41st IAHR World Congress, 2025. International Association for Hydro-Environment Engineering and Research. 2025. p. 756-758. (Proceedings of the IAHR World Congress).

Probabilistic Decision Support for Anticipatory Flood Actions in Alexandria City, Egypt

Abstract

Publication series

Conference

Bibliographical note

UN SDGs

Keywords

Access to Document

Other files and links

Fingerprint

Cite this