Paris targets within reach by aligning, broadening and strengthening net-zero pledges

Ioannis Dafnomilis; Michel den Elzen; Detlef van Vuuren

doi:10.1038/s43247-023-01184-8

Paris targets within reach by aligning, broadening and strengthening net-zero pledges

Ioannis Dafnomilis^*
, Michel den Elzen
, Detlef van Vuuren

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

Abstract

Many countries have recently announced the ambition to reach net-zero emissions targets. Here we explore the climate and energy transition impacts of the following strategies using the IMAGE integrated assessment model: 1) implementing the pledged 2030 targets and net-zero targets, 2) aligning the 2030 emission targets with the net-zero targets, 3) broadening the coalition of net-zero countries, and 4) strengthening the net-zero pledges by bringing them forward in time. The results illustrate that each step could accelerate the low-carbon transition by building on existing elements in international climate policy. Our study shows that the gap between a continuation of current emission trends and a Paris-aligned 1.5 °C target can be reduced by about 90% by 2100. This provides a pathway to bring the Paris Agreement climate goals within reach.

Original language	English
Article number	48
Number of pages	10
Journal	Communications Earth and Environment
Volume	5
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-01184-8
Publication status	Published - Jan 2024

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2024, The Author(s).

Funding

This work was supported by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program (grant agreement no. 821471: ENGAGE; grant agreement no. 821124: NAVIGATE).

Funders	Funder number
Horizon 2020 Framework Programme	821471, 821124

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 7 Affordable and Clean Energy
SDG 13 Climate Action

Keywords

climate and earth sytem modelling
climate change impacts
climate change mitigation
projection and prediction

Access to Document

10.1038/s43247-023-01184-8Licence: CC BY

s43247-023-01184-8Final published version, 2.06 MBLicence: CC BY

Cite this

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abstract = "Many countries have recently announced the ambition to reach net-zero emissions targets. Here we explore the climate and energy transition impacts of the following strategies using the IMAGE integrated assessment model: 1) implementing the pledged 2030 targets and net-zero targets, 2) aligning the 2030 emission targets with the net-zero targets, 3) broadening the coalition of net-zero countries, and 4) strengthening the net-zero pledges by bringing them forward in time. The results illustrate that each step could accelerate the low-carbon transition by building on existing elements in international climate policy. Our study shows that the gap between a continuation of current emission trends and a Paris-aligned 1.5 °C target can be reduced by about 90\% by 2100. This provides a pathway to bring the Paris Agreement climate goals within reach.",

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Paris targets within reach by aligning, broadening and strengthening net-zero pledges

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Funding

UN SDGs

Keywords

Access to Document

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