Paris targets within reach by aligning, broadening and strengthening net-zero pledges

Ioannis Dafnomilis*, Michel den Elzen, Detlef van Vuuren

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

Abstract

Many countries have recently announced the ambition to reach net-zero emissions targets. Here we explore the climate and energy transition impacts of the following strategies using the IMAGE integrated assessment model: 1) implementing the pledged 2030 targets and net-zero targets, 2) aligning the 2030 emission targets with the net-zero targets, 3) broadening the coalition of net-zero countries, and 4) strengthening the net-zero pledges by bringing them forward in time. The results illustrate that each step could accelerate the low-carbon transition by building on existing elements in international climate policy. Our study shows that the gap between a continuation of current emission trends and a Paris-aligned 1.5 °C target can be reduced by about 90% by 2100. This provides a pathway to bring the Paris Agreement climate goals within reach.

Original languageEnglish
Article number48
Number of pages10
JournalCommunications Earth and Environment
Volume5
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Jan 2024

Keywords

  • climate and earth sytem modelling
  • climate change impacts
  • climate change mitigation
  • projection and prediction

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